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Fair enough. I think we just have differing opinions on what "appears to be in good health" is for each of us. I saw an interview with him this summer somewhere and I was literally aghast. I don't remember anything he said, I was just alarmed at how he looked and sounded.

From that interview and the overall recruiting malaise, I'm fairly certain this will be his last year. We'll see.

Frank appears to be in good health at the moment, I don't think it's "iffy." Assuming nothing changes with his health between now and the end of the season (a mere 6 months), I'd be shocked if he stepped down. Sure it's possible, but I would hardly consider this a "likely" circumstance.

Some really good thoughts here and well presented. I had the same idea, what are the actual scenarios (and how many of them kick Loeffler to the curb).

I would just fundamentally argue with you on scenario 3 being highly unlikely. I would put that first right now because I believe there is smoke to the RichRod fire. If you bring in a guy like RichRod and you tell Bud that he's highly valued but just clearly isn't the HC candidate that RichRod is, I think he stays on for many years, if not the rest of his career. Bud loves it here and if he's paid well and works for a man he respects, I think you can get him to stay. That said, this condition is not directly related to RichRod, whom I appreciate is a polarizing figure for VT fans. Insert Mark Richt instead of RichRod if you want. Or David Shaw. Some established HC with an offensive background. That person can get Bud to stay.

I would then rank Bud taking over as second because, like you said, it causes the least disruption. I personally think there is no way in hell he retains Scott Loeffler in that situation, but I realize there are people who don't share my concern over the Loeffler resume. But in my mind, if you can't get a Buzz Williams of football, you give Bud a shot.

I really don't think there is any chance Shane gets the job. It's just too messy longterm. Too many comparisons. He shouldn't be here now. He's qualified for his current job , but he's not so good that he keeps you from questioning whether or not he gets a formal or informal performance review advantage because of who he is. I'm a big Shane fan, but his presence makes this upcoming transition much more challenging than it should be from a political perspective. I hope each offseason he takes a 1-AA HC job and eventually comes back to VT. But I don't want him as the next HC. No. A thousand times, no. No.

They have had trbl attendance for games for years. Even against solid ranked opponents. (Except VT. We packed it every year.) Yes, the BigTen move helped, but in order to keep the numbers up I can see the alcohol sales helping in the long run. I know several people that actually dropped their season tix once they announced the conference change. ("they want $$$, they can get it from someone else." They were more than happy playing in the ACC.) So the uptick in sales has to be either corporate, visitors, or a new way of calculating the number; ie sales vs gate.

We were at the Greensboro Farmers Market last Thursday. A guy sees my VT sticker and tells me "we just put a brewing system in at VT!!!!" I figured he was telling the truth, but he didn't give any more details. This is going to be interesting. Maybe a more local than some of the big cities incubator for brewmaster talent.

I've got a grenade of Freak of Nature for tonight. Ended up with a few extra bottles of Serenity that are going to age nicely (hopfully.)

An update because of something I had forgotten.

Those Alabama, Stanford, Michigan State, Texas A&M, Michigan, Ohio State in 2011 (I didn't mention them, they won 5 more games in 2012 than in 2011 but most of the losses/wins were put on the coaching change) and to some extent those Georgia and Florida teams all lost several close games the year before. The first group all lost at least 5 games by 10 points or less (usually within one score) while the second group lost at least three. Sound familiar?

VT certainly seems to fit the mold, although obviously there are no guarantees. Here's the article from ESPN's David Hale that reminded me of these similarities. http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/80197/by-the-numbers-turning-close...

I was wondering the same thing. Mystery solved...

Full House – In the 1991 episode, "Stephanie Gets Framed", Steve is called in to help Stephanie Tanner (Jodie Sweetin) deal with her anxieties after she has to get glasses. He was cousin to a friend of D. J.. Incidentally, Family Matters did not air on the night of the episode's original airdate (January 25, 1991). It is implied that he found himself in San Francisco in the Full House universe before paying a visit to the Lambert household from Step by Step.

So, you are unwilling to allow anyone to discuss that this may be Beamer's last year until a "reputable media outlet" reports it?

it should be clear that nobody on this board is Frank Beamer, so nobody knows. I put in logical supposition: his health is more iffy than ever and he has said his health will dictate when it's time (ignoring his normal response that he needs a good QB and a good kicker. If that was really the criteria, he would have retired 12 months ago. Or 2001.)

If you are waiting around for Beamer's retirement to be official in the papers, then there won't be much discussion to be had about what to do when he's gone. I don't think what I said is crazy, its more probable than not that this will be his last year. Everyone said he would wait until Bristol, but he looks....like a guy nearing 70 who just had a (pretty serious?) throat surgery.

If Bud is as loyal to Frank as has been stated over the years, I dont understand why you think he would leave immediately after Shane is named HC in scenario 4. He might leave a couple seasons later but I cant see him hanging Frank's boy out to dry. TG will be a good DC but our brand is built on our D and I dont see the logic in protecting it by immediately making TG DC. IMO.

It might be time to go back to college for another degree...

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