VT-Stanford stats

Promoted to front page because I heart statistics --Joe

Hey guys, I crunched some numbers to see how the two teams compare- what surprised me was how little separation there was between them in the numbers I ran. I find this particularly useful given the JMU aberration, which I conveniently threw out (along with Stanford’s Cal State-Sacramento game).

Some background on what I did:

  • All data is from NCAA.org, the FCS schools are not included in the averages
  • There are three tables: Points gained/allowed, Yards gained, and Yards allowed analysis for each game for each team
  • Each table compares the actual performance of each game versus what was to be expected. For instance, we (VT under Team) rushed for 128.0 yards against Boise St, which is 24.5 yards better than their seasonal average of 103.5 ypg allowed rushing. Conversely Boise St averaged 200.1 ypg rushing for the season, but we only let them get 168 as seen on the defense
  • All Deltas are positive if VT or Stanford's game performance was favorable (ie "team").

This is what happens when your obsession with databases and VT football collide. If you have any questions on my approach, column headers, or see any errors please let me know. And please accept my apologies in advance for the small font.




DISCLAIMER: Blog posts may not have been written or edited by The Key Play staff.


another thing that stood out to me...

...was how pedestrian our passing attack looks on paper. We faced on average the very middle of the pack, and we basically gained what they were giving (delta -2.1 ypg on average).

Dig a little deeper and you see that NC State was largely to blame, but thanks to DEvans and DWilson we didn't need to throw much.

And who really cares, we look good throwing the ball.

Passing Game

That's actually really interesting, I guess it really emphasizes the phrase, "take what the defense gives you." I think the fact we've had a successful passing attack this season is a credit to Tyrod being super efficient considering we throw the ball so little.

that's actually a great point

We make it count when we do, Tyrod just does his thing and torches people i.e. FSU ACCCG 3rd down conversions.

hoqiez +1,000

This is just beyond awesome stuff.

I'm curious

Since the offense vs defense stats are so close, as well as turnover margins, what about special teams?
Tech has good punt coverage allowing an average of 4.24 yd/punt (10th FBS). Stan. has allowed 13 yd/punt (109th in FBS). Maybe the difference in the game will be a Tech punt return or Tech winning the field position game?

Turnovers may also be the difference.

Other facts:
Stanford leads the nation in time of possession. They are much better than us on 3rd and 4th down conversions.

Comparing them with Boise St is tough because of the schedule difference but I think this game will be just as close. Who will step up and make the big plays?

#Let's Go - Hokies

I guess that's why they play the games

Although its fun to live in dbase/spreadsheet land. I am sure I'll be inspired by the end of March.