By the (Advanced) Numbers: Miami (Night Edition)

Raise your hand if you thought BC would score 34 on us...anyone? Anyone?

The difference between last week and this week is that last week we wanted the numbers to be right, while this week we're hoping they're wrong.

The Basics

Here's how we compare both in terms of computer rankings and predictions:

Not surprisingly, virtually every computer predicts a Miami win by about 5-10 points. The good news is that predicting a game with as much luck and randomness as football is highly difficult, and it's quite common for games to swing at least 5-10 points from their prediction. In fact, I bet it's more likely to be wrong by at least 7 than to be within 7. If you can predict within 7 more than 50% of the time and have a big sample size, call me because we're going to Vegas and I'm paying...

One note I'd like to make about our predictions is that every week, we have one of the most consistently predicted games, most likely because our games are expected to be low-scoring (fist-bumps our defense; flashes an "L" on the forehead to the offense). The problem with low-score, low-variation games is that they can swing on just one or two plays. I'm not sure if that has happened to us because I am unaware of anything that has happened to Hokie football in the past two weeks and assume we are 8-1 and let's just move on now...

Overall Comparisons

So who's better on offense and defense? Surprisingly we get a tiny edge overall but that is easily overcome by home-field advantage:

Although we've dropped to the No. 2 defense in S&P+ ratings (if you don't know to whom, you apparently didn't see any B1G highlights from last week), we're still in possession of an incredible ranking. That said, Miami is in possession of a strong offensive ranking as well so we don't have quite the advantage we are used to.

Pass-Run Personalities

So how do we stack up against Miami in terms of pass-run strengths? Keep in mind with these that offenses tend to have the advantage over defenses:

Miami's offensive advantage on passing downs is scary — keep in mind passing downs doesn't necessarily mean a team will pass, but instead that they're in a passing situation. A strong advantage there means a team is capable of gaining enough yardage despite the defense knowing they need it. If you want to visualize an extreme case of a strong offensive passing down advantage, imagine your frustration at a team coming back to win against a prevent defense.

On offense, VT's rushing rating against their rating defense is the only glimmer of hope. I hear plenty of fans complaining about our running game, and I think that needs to be defined a little better — our running game is not terrible. The problem is Logan Thomas gains the yards and not the tailbacks.

Offense/Defense Personalities

So what kind of personality does each team have relative to the other? Let's start with our defense against their offense:

I wouldn't read too much into the slight differences here. Basically, we have a slight advantage in every aspect. Who should each team's unit remind you of?

Miami's Offensive Clones

1. Northern Illinois
2. Houston
3. Notre Dame

Virginia Tech's Defense Clones

1. We invent the future, so if we could do this type of cloning we would need a lot of Fuller jerseys
2. BYU
3. Alabama
4. Cincinnati

Cincinnati comes up every week. They are basically a poor man's version of our defense. Not nearly as good, but matching up almost perfectly in terms of personality.

So how about our offense against their defense?

Anyone want some methodical drives (10+ plays)? I hope so, because I'm not seeing much else happening here.

Virginia Tech's Offensive Clones (Assuming #AnyFuller4QB is not successful before Saturday)

1. Louisiana-Monroe
2. Wake Forest
3. Akron

I'll let that sink in for a minute. Back in your chair? Good.

Miami's Defensive Clones

1. Houston
2. South Carolina*
3. Penn State

*Miami does not, in fact, possess either a Clowney or a Fuller.