2014-15 Schedule Predictions

Preseason Camp is here, and over on my home forums as I'll call them (The Something Awful Forums), I tend to start the preseason predictions thread. That's expansive to include any posters' teams, given the TKP's Hokie appropriate focus, I figured this would be a good time to start thinking about the schedule and for me to get some perspective on how we think our Hokies will fair against it. I certainly wouldn't dismiss predictions for other teams though and if y'all want to break it out for more than just our Hokies I'm prepped and ready for that.

For my setup (y'all don't have to do it the same way), I'm going to include the preseason rank, schedule, my made up BS chances of our team winning that game, and then a range of final records to reflect; best outcome, expected outcome, worst outcome.

Schedule Example:
Date - Opponent | Expected Outcome | (% chance to win/% chance to lose)

Virginia Tech Hokies

Pre-Season Rank - UNR

Schedule
Aug 30 - William & Mary W (100/0)
Sept 6 - @ Ohio State L (30/70)
Sept 13- East Carolina W (75/25)
Sept 20 - Georgia Tech W (80/20)
Sept 27 - Western Michigan W (100/0)
Oct 4 - @ North Carolina W (50/50)
Oct 16 - @ Pittsburgh L (50/50)
Oct 23 - Miami W (60/40)
Nov 1 - Boston College W (70/30)
Nov 15 - @ Duke W (60/40)
Nov 22 - @ Wake Forest W (90/10)
Nov 28 - Virginia W (100/0)
Dec 6 - ACC Title Game

Best Possible Results | 12-0, 8-0 ACC: As always I believe powered by a top 10 defense the Hokies only need a competent offense to have a shot to run through their ACC schedule undefeated. Ohio State is the only scary out of conference game, and they have a suspect defense and a ton of new faces on offense. It's not inconceivable that early in the season we could pull an upset behind a quality defensive performance like we showed we are capable of against Alabama last season. We dodge FSU, Clemson, and Louisville from the Atlantic. I think this may be a question of addition by subtraction on offense, fresh QB, lots of fresh talent on the Oline and at TE. Add in the experience added in the WR corps, plus some freshman and at least we've got more potential talent waiting than last year. We've had a tough 2 years, but bigger turn arounds have happened.

Expected Results | 10-2, 7-1 ACC: More likely however is that with competent QB play and growth from the offense we are still in a good spot to regain our usual position in the top 15 with a loss at Ohio State and another loss in conference from one of UNC, Pitt, or Duke (ugh how awful would back to back losses to Duke be, really bad). This should put us in a position to play for the ACC Title, and I think we will be much better at running and catching the ball this season than we were last year. Logan Thomas was asked to do too much and it cost us in most of our losses, if the rest of the team can step up and help shoulder the load, whoever the QB is, will be in a better spot to succeed than he was the past 2 years. I wouldn't discount 9-3, 6-2 ACC as a close 2nd option here that I had to debate about. I'd say its a 50/50 split for me between expecting a 10-2/9-3 season which could be entirely optimistic.

Worst Possible Results | 7-5, 5-3 ACC: Let's say the offense isn't any better (entirely possible), and the defense takes time to find it's groove with lots of new starters in the front 7, we could easily lose to OSU, ECU, UNC, Pitt, Duke or Miami. There is the potential for a downward spiral fast if things go wrong early in conference play. We could be better in some spots (WR, TE), but still not have the QB or Oline to make much use of it. A third year without being in contention for the ACC Title, and stuck in some shit mid tier bowl unranked is absolutely on the table. I'm just hoping we can start to get consistent on offense and see more of the Miami game last season and less of the Duke or Maryland games. Give another W OOC and add another loss in conference 4-4 in the ACC isn't too far fetched either.

General Schedule Musings
- GT I feel very confident against because Bud Foster has continued to limit them to fewer and fewer yards each season we play them. Plus we get them at home.
- UNC could finally live up to their billing, or they could again be plagued by inexperience. I consider it a toss up, but I doubt it's a shootout like 2 years ago. Foster will have tricks up his sleeve, and their defense isn't that scary.
- I predicted an L @ Pitt in a toss up game because our track record there is just awful. Especially if we are magically ranked after an upset over OSU or being a solid 5-1 ranked squad going to Pitt. History tells me bad things will happen.
- Miami prb won't have a healthy or quality QB, and after 2 years of playing in South Beach they come to visit us. Fuck em we should win.
- Duke is always a scary game for us, I don't know why. It finally caught up to us last year.
- UVA won't beat us, especially in Lane Stadium. London will be fired after an awful 0-12 campaign. Commonwealth Cup isn't leaving it's home anytime soon.
- I may have grossly undervalued BC, but they don't have Andre Williams to tear us up so they'll have to prove I should be scared of them before I am.

Other Thoughts
- Transfer Michael Brewer I expect to be named the starter maybe as soon as 2 or 3 days into fall camp.
- We will have one of the best secondaries in the country again this year.
- NO STUPID JERSEYS THIS YEAR, ALL MAROON EVERYTHING WILL RETURN.
- Glad to see 2 Thursday night games on the schedule again.

I think looking at the schedule you can justify reasonably anywhere from 11-1 all the way down to 7-5/6-6 as potential outcomes for this season. I feel like our ceiling is high, but unlike years past the floor feels a lot lower. I can't really fathom not being bowl eligible though, but perhaps others will see it more grimly. Just because we've had a couple down years, doesn't change my expectation for what I think the team is capable of. As long as we play in the ACC our chances of finishing with double digit win totals shouldn't either.

I also didn't bother addressing the ACC Title Game as any predictions for that are going to require a little knowledge of the other half of the equation. Have fun with it guys! I look forward to everyone's take on it.