OT: Fantasy #1 pick discussion

Question for my resident TKPers to help pass the time until the season gets started.

In my pricier fantasy league with my buddies back on the East Coast, I've drawn the #1 pick for the second straight year. Fortunately I took Gurley last year.

This time around I am trying to decide between Barkley or Kamara. I am actually leaning towards Kamara, believe it or not.

10 team league
2 QBs
6 pts per touchdown receiving/rushing/throwing

Your thoughts/input?

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Comments

Barkley and it's not even close.

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Mahomes is gonna put up absolutely stupid numbers with that scoring system and if you take anyone other than him, you're either overthinking it, or not thinking hard enough.

If it's 2 QBs and you go Barkley first, you really run the risk of having 15 QBs come off the board by the time you pick again at the 20/21 turn. Figure every team takes a QB in the first two rounds, and ~half will go QB-QB. Someone out there could be running Watson-Luck and you could wind up stuck with Josh Allen and Andy Dalton lol. Because you will be drafting at the turn, you can go QB first, then see how the next two rounds play out and then adjust accordingly by seeing what other players are left and taking the best ones available rather than being forced into taking two mediocre QBs because you need to.

QBs are often the highest scoring players in a standard system, and their positional value is relatively depressed (generally a flatter dropoff from #5 to #10 than with RBs, WRs etc). With the throwing touchdowns at 6 points, you're looking at an extra 100 pts from Mahomes last season over what he got in a standard scoring system.

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

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Very, very nice breakdown.

Just to play devil's advocate, I could also argue the drop-off is a bit steeper in the RB positions than QBs. I would say go Kamara or CMC (Barkley seems like a no-brainer just from pure talent, but with all 3 WR starters injured or suspended, Barkley is going to see 7-9 man boxes. Unless its PPR, I would actually lean more to a TE from Giants).

I agree with Mahomes being a stud and a 2 QB team does play into alot of scenarios. I would think a Top tier RB paired with 2 middle tier QBs would get you further than a top tier QB with 2 middle tier RBs (think Nick Chubb and Marlon Mack's of the world)

Again....2 QB draft probably changes up the logic. Good Luck on the draft though

6 point passing touchdowns, though. positional scarcity plus even greater positional scoring value really favors QB so much that to me it isn't even close.

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

is it PPR? The public consensus is going to say Barkley, and while I'm not here to debate his talent (which is obviously elite) I will make a case to consider both Run CMC and Kamara if it's PPR. The Giants are going to be a bottom 10 offense this year, more than likely. The times they aren't trailing, the box will be LOADED against Barkley and the times that they are, he's now they're best offensive weapon and will be getting all of the opponent's focus. CMC and Kamara are both on offenses that will likely finish top 15, maybe even top 10. When you're splitting hairs (which is what you're doing talking about choosing between the best of the best in the NFL for a #1 fantasy pick) I'd rather hitch my wagon to the player who's team is going to put up better numbers = more opportunities.

I think GGC's comment about taking Mahomes first is something to seriously consider as well. In a 10 team league starting 2 QBs there's going to be bare minimum 30 QBs drafted. Attacking that position early isn't a bad strategy, especially if you're playing PPR and could nab some pass-catching RBs in later rounds like James White, Tarik Cohen, Kenyan Drake, etc.

not just 2 QB league, but also that passing TDs are worth 6 pts. strongly shifts positional value towards QBs as well

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

I'm liking the idea of Mahomes first more and more. One I get a surefire elite QB1 option every week, and I push the QB draft curve up that much more for the picks behind me. Given the likely percentage of QBs taken with the picks that follow until my turn at 20/21, there would be some very solid options at WR or TE, or RB potentially (although I think that's one spot where if you don't have a top 3-4 guy, then the rest are all somewhat interchangeable)

Gobble Gobble Chumps is 100% on the money here. 2QB leagues alone boost the value of QBs significantly and with the scoring system you have Mahomes and Watson (if he stays healthy) should be picks 1 and 2. With some people using their top picks on QBs there will ve plenty of really good RBs and WRs available at picks 20 and 21. You could probably then wait on your 2nd QB until later because the top guys will be gone and the value of those left aren't going to be worth it unless you think one of the QBs available at 20 or 21 will be a top10 QB.

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I mentioned it briefly above, QB play tends to flatten out more so than the other positions. In standard scoring with 1 QB, I think it can be effective to wait on QB in drafts (last year I paired Goff and Rivers to great effect with late round picks), with two QBs, the positional scarcity really increases value, and with 6 pt TDs, the scoring value really gets shifted even further.

One reason the QB scoring curve tends to be flatter than other positions is because of QB rushing (e.g. Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen last year) and rushing TDs. But when passing TDs are 6 points too, I'd rather have the guy who throws for 25 TDs and gets 1 sneaky rush TD (156 in this format) than the guy who throws 16 and rushes for 7 TDs (138 pts). In standard scoring, both of those guys get you 106 points from TDs, and the rushing vs passing yardage might be a wash in both. Just something to think about. So because passing TDs aren't de-emphasized by being 4 pts instead of 6, the QB scoring curve will be a little sharper than you're used to seeing in standard scoring.

I think that drafting at 1, 20, 21 should be two QBs and best RB/WR available, then hit the skill positions hard at 40, 41, etc. That said, if you can snag a third surefire starting QB (e.g. don't get stuck with Rosen/Fitzpatrick, Eli/Jones, Flacco/Lock, etc) before someone else grabs a second QB, you will screw them over so badly and basically force them to miss the playoffs, since you can't really "stream QB" in a league where pretty much every starting QB should be rostered. Pay attention to how everyone else is drafting because you could generate immense trade leverage with middling-at-best QB options if a few people are treating it like a standard draft.

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

On another note: I absolutely wrecked in my league last year because i drafted pretty well, but also very strongly won two key trades and also picked up James Conner prior to week one when it was clear Lev Bell was going to hold out into the season. We instituted two keepers from last year to this one, and I'm curious on who everyone is thinking? My options for keepers are: CMC, Kamara, Hopkins, Conner, and Ertz. I am leaning towards CMC and Kamara, seems like a no-brainer. We play half ppr (might change to full ppr this season) with two flex spots. Really hoping I get an early pick so I can snag a pass catcher early

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

I would go CMC and Kamara all day. Especially with PPR.

The Steelers have a backup RB that may eat up a lot of touches from Connor.

what round draft picks would you be sacrificing? or is that not how your keepers are set up?

i'm pretty sure everyone protects two keepers, and we effectively start at round 3

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

CMC and Nuk

I would do CMC and Kamara. Panthers dont have a backup worthy of taking significant carries from CMC and neither does New Orleans. If Pittsburgh didn't have Jaylen Samuels playing well, i could make a (very small) case for Conner over Kamara but I'm just going with Kamara and CMC