OT: UPDATE Coronavirus Tracking Thread

Update: Changed the title of thread as the Texas A&M case has been found negative.

Possible Cases Still TBD:

  • Philadelphia
  • New York
  • Michigan
  • Virginia
Forums: 
DISCLAIMER: Forum topics may not have been written or edited by The Key Play staff.

Comments

I hate sickness. Save me Busch Light. You're my only hope.

If busch light is the cure/vaccine I'm gonna live forever.

(add if applicable) /s

Then you need to see this. The guy is hilarious!

You Betcha

"Hey Bud, you wont have to hold the opponent to 17 points anymore."

I thought this was going to end in a Brent Williams reference . I'm disappointed.

Nah, he's always been like that.

Brent goes to aTm and just a few short months later they have Coronavirus. Coincidence? I'll let you decide.

"That kid you're talking to right there, I think he played his nuts off! And you can quote me on that shit!" -Bud Foster

Must be contagious from Sneks

Imma blame the cheese bois.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Ha! I thought you meant Brad Cornelsen had a virus named after him and he was being hired by aTm. Wouldn't be the first time.

On a serious note, hope all is well down in College Station.

I thought you meant Brad Cornelsen had a virus named after him

That couldn't be possible, viruses know how to pass and spread.

"It's a miracle in Blacksburg, TYROD DID IT MIKEY, TYROD DID IT!"

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Damn that's a good comment.

Hahaha! Logged in just to leg this. That's gold right there!

Guess the safest place to be is the winchester folks!

Directions from Blacksburg to whoville, go north till you smell it then go east until you step in it

And be sure to take your cricket bat and a shovel.

#Let's Go - Hokies

The videos of people collapsing in the street are alarming to say the least. I hope the WHO can get that contained and quickly.

scaring the shit out of me right now

I hope you and your family stay safe there? How close are you to where the outbreak started?

thanks

fairly far, about 500 miles or so. but this could not have happened at a worst time. the largest migration of people in world are moving around carrying it to who knows where. And older generations just don't understand the danger.

there's some crazy videos going around on Chinese social media platforms.

The ones of people falling out in the streets?

yeah those are pretty bad. there are others showing inside hospitals. people literally passed out all over. others of different doctors from various hospitals on the phone crying/screaming for help. nurses openly sobbing.

It's a shit show. China is building a new hospital there converting a building that is currently almost complete in construction. They did the same thing in Beijing during SARS. Took them 12 days then, hopefully less this time.

Holy shit dude. That is terrifying.

I live in Okinawa, just an hour and a half flight from mainland China and a place where thousands of Chinese tourists visit daily, and I just came down with a fever of 101 and a killer sore throat.

Go to the hospital now my man. Don't risk anything.

What's
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Yeah. Fever was definitely one of the first symptoms to show when this virus was first noticed. Supposedly now it can have a longer incubation period with other symptoms showing first.

Heading there in about 30 minutes.

Good luck. Keep us posted.

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Just the flu 👍

Great man!

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Great to hear!

But this highlights one of the big problems going on. There is quite a strong flu season going on as well and loads of people have the regular flu and think they have this virus. so they go to the hospital and risk cross contamination because the hospital is overrun. or they don't go, thinking its only the flu and succumb. Rough time for those people.

Getting the flu isn't generally celebrated. Until now.

Congrats.

Now - take care of yourself and get better.

Yeah, man.

Drink fluids, rest, get medical attention.

I would think this is a major concern for all technical universities since they all have large foreign student and faculty populations from Asia, going to get ugly.

I can imagine no more rewarding a career. And any man who may be asked in this century what he did to make his life worthwhile, I think can respond with a good deal of pride and satisfaction:
“I served in the United States Navy"

KCCO

The case in NJ was found to be NOT the coronavirus.

I have a friend that lives at Texas A&M and he's scared because he said the population is 40% Asian.

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Was watching BBC news this morning and they showed two construction sites where the authorities hope to turn empty lots into hospitals in less than 10 days. They had hundreds of pieces of equipment working like crazy.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

For you and Fernley, mainly Fernley...

How the hell do you build a hospital in 10-12 days? Perhaps the definition of hospital here is different than my standard definition.

That is insane.As someone who does commercial and industrial electrical work that would be insane to have to wire in a massive hospital that quickly and it be done safely and correctly especially with all the extra stuff needed to do to be code in a hospital then again this is china.

Directions from Blacksburg to whoville, go north till you smell it then go east until you step in it

Besides site prep I bet a lot of it will be military style prefab. Prewired and plumed.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

bingo

Makes alot more sense no way all the utilities could be done in less than a month even with 24 hour work. Itll be interesting to see the results.

Directions from Blacksburg to whoville, go north till you smell it then go east until you step in it

I think these ones are going to be a combination of prefabbed industrial shells and tent structures. they need to level the ground and pour rapidset concrete to level it for a quick foundation.

Although here in the states we couldn't get the site prep done that fast and well coordinated. Watching the video of the heavy machinery working in such a large group and so well together was impressive.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

If money is not an option you'd be surprised what can get done. But it's very impressive nonetheless.

Yup in the us construction can take ages for a lot of reasons but I'd imagine the workers are working piles of overtime and getting a large chunk of change possibly. Kind of like when a hurricane hits and then the union will send you places for double or more pay to work on restoring stuff thats been damaged.

Directions from Blacksburg to whoville, go north till you smell it then go east until you step in it

Military could do it.
Seabees, Army combat engineers and rapid deployment equipment.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

If we could get them out in time. We tell local agencies "you won't see outside he,p except for what's in your county already for 72-96 hours at least.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

I bet the Chinese Army has their own version.
With a bio facility right there, I'd hope they have a preformed plan for something like this.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

And she is done...

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cheap (and possibly some forced) labor working around the clock. Will likely have cement floor and bare bones walls and lighting.

You can build a house in 3 hours. Also a good video to show your project team to illustrate the value of a well coordinated project.

Whatever. It was one bad year.

Seasonal Brew means High ABV for football season and standard the rest of the year.

The safety requires are lots more relaxed there.

The virus has quickly been characterized as having evolved from SARS and is likely carried by bats, and spread via the airway. For details (highly technical genomics, but if you have questions I can try to translate as I have time):

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.22.914952v2.full.pdf

Patients seem to mount a robust immune response, but the disease is obviously severe and requires supportive care. The most highly mutated region of the genome in the virus is on a cell surface protein that helps the virus enter cells, but having been identified, there is hope for a vaccine, but those things take a long time to develop.

You know what goes great with the Coronavirus? Lyme Disease.

This reads like a Pete Morris tweet.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Here's to the Army and Navy and the battles they have won; here's to America's colors, the colors that never run - Wang Chi

May the wings of liberty never lose a feather. - Jack Burton

Assuming all the publicly available information is valid, I wouldn't spend too much time being anxious about this. Coronavirus is one of the many viruses that cause the common cold. This is a more virulent strain. Its just like SARS and MERS (Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome), both of which are coronaviruses.

So in China, those areas certainly have to take appropriate public health measures. It appears that they are as they have experience with this from the SARS outbreak. Its actually quite astonishing they identified this so quickly. But I would not expect that this would cause harm to a random person in Virginia.

A more virulent strain of the common cold, with an unknown incubation period, is something worth getting a handle on.

Assuming you know any children. Or older adults. Or people. This kind of thing can kill a lot of all of those.

China is scared enough of it to limit the travel of 35 million people. We're talking about China, who aren't known for their effective reactions to these kinds of things.

Hopefully they can stop this before it spreads.

Edit: A second U.S. patient has just tested positive for the Coronavirus, and 50 people in 22 states are under observation by the CDC. No need to panic, but it's worth being aware of. By the way, the CDC rocks on this kind of stuff. They're all over it.

Yep. A few years ago my nephew caught some variation of the Coronavirus when he was a newborn. Resulted him being an the ICU for like a week, because he had dangerously low oxygen levels. He actually stopped breathing at one point in there too. Thankfully he is happy healthy little boy showing no long term effects from it, but definitely could have gone a lot worse.

More people died of the flu the year SARS was going on.

#Let's Go - Hokies

Flu = more deaths total (high number of infections)
Corona/SARS = higher fatality rate (higher percentage of deaths of those that are infected)

And its by a lot. SARS had a fatality rate of 10% during the last pandemic. Flu is typically in the range of 0.01 to 0.02%.

Worth noting that avian flu (if it ever becomes contagious) is estimated to be extremely virulent, and have a fatality rate worse than SARS.

🦃 🦃 🦃

Just ordered the Kindle version of The Stand. Figure it's time to read that one again.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

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Just in: massive migration to Hemmingford (home) Nebraska

uva - the taint of the ACC
XL Jockstraps 34 - Ascots 31
#15 Straight

Can you give me a synopsis of what happened in the Stand. I saw the mini-series when the film was super dated. I can't remember what exactly happened, or what the actual conclusion was. I just remember not fully getting it.

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A nasty flu virus weapon mistakenly is released on the world, killing over 99% of the world's population. Survivors start seeing dreams of either an old black lady in Nebraska or a dark figure known by many names such as Randall Flagg, the Walkin' Dude, etc. This turns into a gathering of people in Boulder, CO and Las Vegas, NV and a struggle of good vs evil.

It's really well written (as are all of Stephen King's works) and is definitely one of his best novels, maybe the top. Highly recommend it. The miniseries is dated, but it follows the novel pretty well, and is long enough to do it justice.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

The problem with King is that he writes a really great novel and never knows how to give it a strong ending. The newest IT movie actually mocks it quite a bit. The Stand is one of the worst because it builds up a huge battle between good and evil only the battle sort of fizzles out. IT got totally crazy at the end and the movie tried a different path but still couldnt match the thrill of the rest of the movie. All that said, I still enjoy reading King's novels.

"I am probably too rational to be here"

And while you're at it, watch Pandemic on Netflix

I wrote my senior research paper for my History major on the 1918 influenza epidemic that they talk about a bit in Pandemic. The thought of a modern day version is horrifying.

Gobble Till You Wobble

It's scary, but we also have better communication, processes, and technology to combat it as well.

To go along with today's higher population and speed of travel.

In other words, we watched TWD, and we know what to stock up on.

Yea a lot of the research discussed the pros and cons of our advancements because while we have been advancing, so has the virus.

Gobble Till You Wobble

I know for a fact that the Department of Homeland Security has a group that focuses on issues such as pandemic flu and other outbreaks. Not sure if that helps you sleep any easier or not.

Homeland Security and the CDC appear to coordinate this sort of thing pretty well, which is a good thing.

Though they may well get tested on this one.

>>The thought of a modern day version is horrifying.

Its called obesity. Only we're exporting this one, and we don't need to eat no birds or bats to get it.

For those of us nearby in Houston...fuck.

I love the tickle of Dickel in my belly

Because of this, or the fact that your buildings are just randomly blowing up?

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

That was wild this morning! I live within a 3 mi radius of that building. Needless to say, the wife and I were quite startled this morning at 4:30 am CST, as were our furry ones.

I love the tickle of Dickel in my belly

Just watched the 2011 movie Contagion the other night and its pretty scary stuff when you think about it. I know that is probably not the case here but its terrifying that something like this could actually happen.

I've long considered that one of the scariest movies I've seen

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Definitely NOT having flashbacks from Medical Geography. /S

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

I never thought I'd see an ESRI Ops Dashboard on TKP. What a time to be alive!

I get to make these for work. People think I'm a wizard. It's just spatial data queries.

I walked someone through our public GIS site the other day over the phone and they went on and on about how good I am at my job.

People recognize skills when they see them. /S

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

Is someone gave me the data, I could put it in Tableau and we could really have a sexy looking heat map.

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Hexbins>heat maps

Edit: But not for this case.

I think we could make it more scary in a heat map lol, especially with bright colors. It would look like it would be everywhere.

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Going to be a while before I can get to it.

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I wish both operations dashboard and insights were more mobile friendly, or at least more customizable for different resolutions. For some reason I have dual 4k monitors at work while endusers are on much lower res screens.

stick it in, stick it in, stick it in!

You're speaking my language. Yes, that's the one drawback I've found to Ops Dashboard. It looks great on my big monitors, but when I try to show someone on my iPad, it just looks squished and sad. I haven't delved into insights yet.

Tableau is brutal on an iPhone or Tablet too. Navigating a heat map is also messed up on whatever screen you are working off of.

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It's weird to me that it's literally in China and the USA.

You would think that it would have shown up in Europe at least as well.

I also heard there was a suspected cases in Australia.

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One in Japan and one in Seoul, South Korea

Whatever. It was one bad year.

Seasonal Brew means High ABV for football season and standard the rest of the year.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Honeymoon is booked for Paris the first week of June. I now have a backup argument for not leaving the room the whole time.

Gobble Till You Wobble

I assume your starting argument is that it's your honeymoon?

Congrats on the sex!

Did someone say GIS???

Vroom Vroom

User name checks out

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

Vroom Vroom

Possible Case in NY

If it's there, it could be bad.

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There are reports that China has been under-reporting cases and deaths from this.

I was about to just post something to that extent.

Here is an article from the NY post. It has a video from inside one of the Hospitals and it's disturbing to say the least.

China Hospital

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There was a Washington Post article as well. Pretty much it's under reported due to incorrect diagnosis and lack of testing kits, and deaths are lower than actual possibly due to people dying before being diagnosed.

The good news is it does not seem as deadly as SARS. The diagnosed lady in Chicago is stable and improving with medical care. And transmission seems to be very low before symptoms present.

these people are just sleeping daddy

The Chinese government misleading the global community on their internal affairs? I'm shocked.

The Orange and Maroon you see, that's fighting on to victory.

This was a given from the beginning. China never reports the truth. Especially in disasters and political issues.

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Too bad they didn't lock down the airports a little sooner.

There will be other cases from contact with these identified cases.

But at least they have taken steps at this point to control the spread.

Too bad they didn't lock down the airports a little sooner.

Something, something, Madagascar.

Aide: Mr President, someone in Greenland has a cough.

President of Madagascar:
Shut

Down

Everything

Never Forget #1 Overall Seed UVA 54, #64 UMBC 74

gave you a thumbs up then a thumbs down

due to path dependence (or a lack of) in the scoring algorithm you were at a -1 so in attempt to give you a flat zero which I evidently can no longer do, I rounded up to +1

nice comment about the airports... think we probably need to tighten up the US response ...

despite what Mike Bloomberg thinks, China is a repressive authoritarian regime that watches its people almost as closely as we do, but represses their internet reporting abilities and yet we have some pretty concerning leaks

sounds like this thing is way more transmissible than SARS, (can get in through your eyeballs?), though less potent than SARS

no big deal, I think humans with lab glasses and breathing masks are more attractive

no idea how the incubation period is

getting ready to buy some stocks but we may be down pretty big by Tuesday / Wednesday if my tea leave reading is in the ballpark... takes some stones to buy in those instances

they stay it get into cells though the same mechanism SARS does.... I am not sure SARS can get into eyes, yet we have pretty damning reports about transmissibility within hospitals, docs saying it got in through eyes

starting to think something numbers wise devastating is happening... call it a cleaning up the developing worlds retirement funding virus... plenty of fud in my mind right now... coincidence the Chinese bioweapon lab in Wuhan? someone forget to wash their hands? china has more people than we do don't buy this bioweapons aren't designed like this argument, yet the populations that will be hit don't really matter to GDP... bejesus folks

STAY OUT OF ALL FORMS OF PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION (especially your immunocompromised loved ones)

just fyi I am no longer a scientist, only posed as a scientist for a couple of years, and I had red wine in my hand pretty much all night.... SO I HAVE NO CREDIBILITY TO ASSESS THIS THING.... no need to panic on my red wine induced assessment

He left his account logged in and drunk brother VT_HardWorker went nuts.

To would be profiteers: Don't. It's too soon to buy stocks.

Will likely get worse before it gets better, all around, particularly if you think China was actually slow to respond to this.

I had red wine in my hand pretty much all night

Seems like there was some wine in you last night as well.

El. Psy. Kongroo.

I found TKP after two rails from TOTS then walking back to my apartment and re-watching the 2012 Sugar Bowl. I woke up the next day with this username.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Coronavirus. Its gone viral.

...as member of a disease-fighting team that is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. Now, we're not the team your thinking of, unless you're thinking of a team I just made up, that lives together in a van in the parking lot across the street from the CDC.

loved the tabletop series

New case in Orange County CA

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It's getting closer and closer to India. If it makes it there it will certainly get even more out of control.

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Chinese health authorities are struggling to deal with a skyrocketing rate of infection in the country of the new coronavirus with the number of cases increasing 50 percent in just 24 hours.

China's leader Xi Jinping has warned of an "accelerating spread" of the coronavirus, adding to worries about the scope of a health crisis that has claimed at least 56 lives and triggered emergency health measures in cities across China.

----- Source: Washington Post

Incubation period seems to be about two weeks, and each person likely infects 2-3 other people at this point.

56 people dead.

Efforts to limit travel were initially criticized as an over-reaction, but it seems to me they were justified.

Who criticized travel restrictions as an over reaction? Everyone here is blaming them for not doing it sooner when the virus first was reported. People in wuhan and some elsewhere are openly critical across social media. That's almost unprecedented in China.

I had a discussion with a doctor who basically said the Media was overreacting to it since it was a niche virus to try to get better ratings and that they should be focusing more on the flu.

My reaction is yes, the flu is deadly, and when it's a bad flu season people need to be notified, however, the coronavirus in this form is unknown. If they need to terrify the world population to get ahead of it fine. We have no clue how deadly this can be and it's better to be overactive than not.

He was still pissed because the flu is more deadly. I mean whatever it's the flu we deal with it every year and it is a problem, but the niche viruses can be extremely deadly if they do not get on top of it ASAP.

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that doctor is extremely ignorant to the realities of China.

There were some people in the media criticizing the travel ban a few days ago. They were saying it was an over-reaction, and that it would cause people to try and travel illegally.

Seems to me that an abundance of caution is in order, and the travel ban was justified.

pound of prevention > ounce of cure

pound of prevention > ounce of cure

Math checks out

most people actually follow what the Central Government says. If they restrict travel then then by far and large most will restrict themselves. Similarly as the open condemnation across social media here is building it is almost exclusively toward local/provincial government and not Central. Sure some still traveled illegally but those numbers are tiny compared to overall.

People in Wuhan are saying the travel ban should have happened two weeks earlier and that the rest of the country was put into danger by their ignorance and local/provincial government's dereliction and ineptitude.

Here's an opinion piece from two days ago, in the Washington Post. I don't agree with their opinion that China shouldn't have tried - I think they should have done it sooner, and given the population more time to protect itself.

He's saying that restricting movement is "draconian", but slowing the spread of this will save lives.
Why we should be skeptical of China's coronavirus quarantine

I've ran in to a number of "experts" reporting on China over the years and have yet to meet anyone that really knows the realities here. He may be a health expert but he absolutely doesn't know what he's talking about in regards to China.

And he clearly isn't talking to anyone on this side of the world. China knows that it's going to spread out of the quarantine zone. They know it's going to appear all over the country but by establishing travel bans and quarantining cities (as per Chinese News every single day) they are a) letting cities across the country prepare for potential outbreaks; b) starving out the existing escaped population from Wuhan by seeing where new cases pop up in that time; c) buying an absolute shitload of food and medical supplies from all over the world (I know because my trading company is running 24 hours at the moment); and most important to the government (this part not one the news here) d) calming a billion people that they know will get absolutely crazy if this gets to Wuhan levels across the country with hospitals overrun, supplies gone and food scarce and wildly overpriced.

Also he mentions the HK had lax quarantines during SARS which is a lie. HK quarantined entire buildings and sections of the city closer to the border. They forced anyone with even a little symptoms into designated hotels or hospitals.

Exactly.

The more they can slow this thing down initially, the better off everyone will be, and the fewer people will die in the initial phase of the disease.

The key for this is giving people time to prepare and take precautions.

Three potential cases in VA.

Two of the cases are in the Central region, which includes Lynchburg and the counties of Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford and Campbell.

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

Shit

I have no idea why my username is VT_Warthog.

Arkansas blew a 24-0 lead in the Belk Bowl.

What are you talking about? We're only smack dab in the middle. /S

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

Hopefully they turn up negative. Ugh. This is so scary.

I have no idea why my username is VT_Warthog.

Arkansas blew a 24-0 lead in the Belk Bowl.

I'm with ya.

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

600,000 people die from the flu each year for perspective.

Completely understand and the flu is not to be taken lightly.

The thing with viruses like Corona, are the ones that start effecting humans are completely unknowns to a certain extent. They need to be extra cautious and I am 100% ok with that.

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I agree the health officials should be taking it serious.

just trying to ease some fears that this is equivalent to Some kind of Ebola - it's a cold that can cause Pnemonia, which is the serious part.

And unless China is covering it up - it has a much smaller mortality rates than SArS

This.

Again. It's still super early. SARS didn't get recognized for about 4 months and had a 9% mortality. This was identified, sequenced and named in less than 2 months and the available data is showing 3% mortality.

Anything can happen. But random people in the US should not be freaking out about this.

2020 sucks.

Baby, can you dig your man.
He's a righteous man.
Baby, can you dig your man.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

I found TKP after two rails from TOTS then walking back to my apartment and re-watching the 2012 Sugar Bowl. I woke up the next day with this username.

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we call this kaihu

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Can you dig your man?
He's a righteous man. Baby,
can you dig your man?

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

maybe we'll call it a Hampton Roads Haiku because it was 7-5-7

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

How hasn't this thing gone North into Russia yet?

so much conspiracy theory bullshit I could throw out right now...

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

There could be a nuke plant outside of Moscow melting down and shooting coronavirus into the atmosphere and we probably wouldn't hear anything except for how good Putin looks without his shirt on.

Leonard. Duh.

Can't wait for the eventual HBO miniseries about this!

Well there is a possible case here in Philly now and I live in the city :(

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Also officials from WHO are saying that the virus can be passed prior to symptoms starting to show. So during that 2 week incubation period you could pass the virus on.

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I'm about to spend 40 some odd hours traveling to and from Southeast Asia this week. Not too worried about myself but for my 20 month old when I return, especially with up to 14 days of incubation. Might pull the plug at the last minute.

Stocks are tumbling right now as due to a sell-off in Europe and Japan due to coronavirus fear.

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Hokie Club member since 2017

Schiffert?
"Doctor, I'm worried I might have Coronavirus."
"How many sexual partners do you have?"
"Not sure how that's releva-"
"Drop your drawers"

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

"You might be pregnant. Here, pee on this stick"
"I'm a male."
"Better safe than sorry."

I had a finance teacher at tech that owned half the town of Blacksburg. He swore that he peed on a pregnancy test once a week, because he was highly involved with cancer research. The research showed that women would test positive for being pregnant, but were not, and the same hormones that protect a cancer growth were the same that protected a fetus.

Worst professor I have ever had, except for one property management class he ran,

Science!

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Yeah, I a story awhile back about some guy who was just messing around with some pregnancy tests his ex-gf had left behind and it came up as pregnant so he called his doctor just to ask and that's how he figured out he had cancer.

If you're talking about Bonomo, I'm going to have to ask you to leave.

Gobble Till You Wobble

I just looked up then name and yes he was the professor, RIP. I'm sorry to offend you.

He had to bell curve my entire 100 person class because he literally didn't teach and just spoke these crazy stories (which were all cool and interesting), but again didn't really teach us the subject matter at hand. So when it came to testing, not many people did well in the class.

Like I said that one class where he told us how he made his money through real-estate was very interesting and I learned quite bit.

He was quite old at the time and he was teaching an introductory class to financing. I don't know.

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I had him for Real-Estate Finance so that might explain why our 2 experiences were a little different haha

Gobble Till You Wobble

Yeah he was very knowledgeable in that area. When he taught the one class on it, it was great, however I do not think it was actually in the curriculum for the class I was taking.

What's
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I went to Schiffert because I had felt totally awful for a day. At first they were impatient with me because they thought I was faking or hung over but when I did see a doctor he diagnosed labyrinthitis. I think he was right. What a terrible few days that was, but Schiffert did ok by me the only time I went.

but Schiffert did ok by me the only time I went.

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

Her British accent is so thick I can tell by reading her lips.

Whatever. It was one bad year.

Seasonal Brew means High ABV for football season and standard the rest of the year.

Hahah I can't un-hear it? un-see it? now

If we are keeping updates, 3 suspected cases here in MI.

Link

Edit: and on second thought I should've only posted confirmed cases. Suspected cases probably just drive more unnecessary fear.

You on the East or west side?

Recruit Prosim

East side, Detroit proper.
Has been updated the three reported were negative.

Fellow Michigander?

I was just in Detroit before the holidays and am meant to get there in Feb. Not sure about now with the virus but I have potentially a very large project starting there soon. I'm always in downtown though either in the Shinola or nearby.

what do you do there?

February is a beautiful time of year here in Detroit, you'll absolutely love it /s
I work in as an engineer in the automotive industry.
Or were you asking in regards to social activities? Because this time of year I stay indoors, build a fire, and stare at a photo of the sun to remember what it looks like

Edited to add that I'm being pessimistic at the moment but I absolutely love Detroit. A city really on the turn around and it is very interesting to see. It also is quite unique versus other metropolitan cities because of what this city has gone through. But the winters can really kill your spirit and/or will to live

yeah was talking jobs. Was wondering if you worked at Quicken or any of the Gilbert's companies.

I hear you on the weather man. Not looking forward to it if I do somehow manage to get there.

Edit replying to your Edit: I second your thoughts on the revival of Detroit. It's come A LONG WAY and was really great visiting. Hopefully I can contribute a little to it's future in the next few years.

No just used to live in Grand Rapids

Recruit Prosim

Well, traveling to Costa Rica this upcoming Sunday for work for the whole month of February. Praying I don't catch this thing going through ATL on my way to San Jose.

If I were traveling this week, I wouldn't hesitate to wear a mask. They're currently saying that it might be contagious before symptoms show up.

Protect yourself.

I'd go for some safety goggles too

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Purell bath.

I've already ordered the HAZMAT suit to waltz through the airport in.

All clear in Lynchburg:

I have no idea why my username is VT_Warthog.

Arkansas blew a 24-0 lead in the Belk Bowl.

So, I can stop stocking up on bourbon for disinfectant purposes? Better keep at it just in case those stupid docs are wrong.

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

APFoW and Warthog live to fight another day!

I have no idea why my username is VT_Warthog.

Arkansas blew a 24-0 lead in the Belk Bowl.

APFoW and Warthog live to fight drink another day!

FTFY

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

Why not stockpile bourbon? For reasons...

Never Forget #1 Overall Seed UVA 54, #64 UMBC 74

Truth time. I can never stockpile bourbon or Scotch because it winds up in my belly. Our liquor cabinet is consistently full of Mrs. APFOW's drinks of choice, but the whisk(e)y never lasts.

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

You just described our liquor stock and the beer shelf in the fridge. Although, last week my wife put a dent in the liquor supply. Rough week as a teacher. You know the deal.

Yep. That sounds familiar.

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

Here is a really cool interactive map utilizing web GIS that is constantly updating confirmed cases/deaths/recoveries/etc.

LINK

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Should I be feeling less comfortable about the honeymoon to Kauai I have scheduled 2/7-2/14? Flying out of Denver to one of the Cali airports (I think LA, maybe SFO) and then a redeye direct to Denver on the way back. Direct both ways.

Old sigline: I've been cutting back on the drinking.

New Sigline: lol it's football season.

those 13 hour flights back from China are no fun. This last trip was extra spaceal with a 3M filter cutting the circulation off to my ears ... not to mention the agony of my own breath the entire time. Thank you bat soup!

Influenza kills many hundreds of thousands every year. We should give it as much attention.

#Let's Go - Hokies

I agree but the hype with Coronavirus is the unknown. Not knowing the full spreading capability, true impact to a 1st world culture and throw in being able to spread it with no clue you have it for another week or more riles up everyone.

The flu in the US is viewed as 1 step up from a cold. Having the fallback of modern medicine keeps people feeling safe.

"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken" - Colonel Sanders via Ricky Bobby

The hype with Coronavirus is Twitter, Facebook, IG, Snapchat, and all the other social media platforms are full-max go today. It;s much easier to stir up the panic.

SARS was just as bad or maybe worse than this. Coronavirus is more contagious, but everyone who is dying has had an underlying health issue. SARS was dropping otherwise healthy people in their tracks.

Leonard. Duh.

SARS was dropping otherwise healthy people in their tracks

RIP Trish Keenan

EDIT: Disregard, she had swine flu

Lots of people get flu shots, which limits the overall effects somewhat.

Otherwise, the death count would be a lot higher.

eh, yes and no. Influenza gets way more attention. It's a multi-billion dollar industry. I would guess research dollars for influenza trounce corona virus, probably 1000-fold. The scare of coronavirus probably seems like it gets much more attention than influenza, but it doesn't get attention except when a pandemic hits. And tbf, coronavirus pandemics have had a crazy high fatality rates, dwarfing influenza's worst years (especially recently).

🦃 🦃 🦃

There's also the fact that this is relativity early on, since they are saying incubation period can be up to 14 days. Also reports of China under reporting cases and deaths. There are reports of limited test kits and doctors not testing people that are deemed beyond hope so those deaths go unreported. I'm not sure where the 4% mortality rate is coming from this early on I guess the deaths to total cases was around that rate but a lot of those in the total cases were still sick. If you compare deaths to recovered numbers mortality rate is over 50% of course this will be skewed to the higher side as those that are more likely to recover would be going through the entire sickness so we won't have a realistic rate for a few more weeks.
With all the unknowns and China's track record on these things there's a lot to drum up fear and panic. The flu comes around every year and people get the vaccine for it so there isn't that fear of the unknown aspect.

The point is that many people don't get flu shots, limiting the vaccine's effectiveness and causing thousands of preventable deaths every year. If people took the flu as seriously as they took flavor of the month health scares it wouldn't be nearly as bad as it is.

I totally get that and agree with you on that point.

what i was getting at is for those of us that do take the flu seriously and get the flu shot every year, this is generating more panic because of the unknown factor I mean we went from 2.7K confirmed cased last night to 4.4K cases this morning add to that the fact that we don't know when those people contradicted the virus and the overall death count is still higher (107) than the overall recovered count (63) and it's easy to see how our imaginations can run wild.

I saw a report which had interviewed family members of three different coronavirus victims. All 3 families said independently that while sick, the doctors told them they had coronavirus. But when they died, the families have said that the death certificate or medical record states viral pneumonia as the cause of death. Families said that the death of their loved one is not being counted in the corornavirus death totals. So the real numbers could be much much higher already.

All 3 families said independently that while sick, the doctors told them they had coronavirus. But when they died, the families have said that the death certificate or medical record states viral pneumonia as the cause of death.

coronavirus is a cause of viral pneumonia. It seems weird that any statistician determining coronavirus fatality rates would not take that into account.

🦃 🦃 🦃

I would be surprised if formal death certificates are being used as the basis for total deaths related to this outbreak. I suspect the CDC (or China's equivalent) has a separate data collection system that doesn't depend on formal death certificates. But that is all a presumption.

Let's put this to rest. China is ABSOLUTELY not reporting the real figures. That is a given.

I know for a fact that there are 10k+ people in Shanghai under quarantine and that hasn't been reported anywhere.

I just read somewhere that people that are dying are not being labeled as corona virus as cause of death, but rather a mixture of Pneumonia and Corona Virus.

So basically they are under reporting the death rate, by labeling the deaths as 2 different things.

Hope you are hanging in there Fernley, must be scary as hell there.

What's
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If you get drunk, stumble, and fall off the edge of a cliff and die, nobody is going to report that you died because you drank some beers.

It will be reported that you died from a fall, and that alcohol was involved.

Leonard. Duh.

The cause of death is pneumonia which was brought on by the Virus and other factors that will be different for each patient, such as weakened immune system from other health issues.

I have my family bunkered in at home. We're deciding if, when and where to leave.

Staying at home makes it easy(ier) to avoid but we have issues coming up with my daughter's schooling, me having loads of work to do and pets that would need to be re-homed if we did leave.

Not to mention that plane travel to and from China is risky in and of itself. No matter what screening they do you never know if or how many on a plane of 200+ have it.

Not to mention that plane travel to and from China is risky in and of itself.

That's very true. Planes are viral and bacterial incubators. 12 plus hours in close confinement, limited ability to wash hands.

🦃 🦃 🦃

Maybe the shortest flight out of China and to the US from there. That'd be my plan.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

This is surely about to get even more out of control. They have a confirmed case in an African country according to the map above, in the same region where they had the Ebola outbreak.

Hopefully, they can get a better handle on this then their recent track record with Ebola, but I doubt it because this is more contagious.

Also their is a new case in Sir Lanka as well. Closer and closer to India.

What's
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They are actually making great progress against ebola ever since the break through on the vaccine.

Yes, but their is a vaccine involved. Sadly we do not have anything to combat Corona Virus just yet.

What's
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There's a case in Nepal as well to add to your concern for India

I have been following that one as well. India has big problems with the Flu, particularly Swine Flu, on a yearly basis.

If this virus makes it into that country it could be devastating, especially in peak Flu season.

What's
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I'll be honest, a country like India, with how overcrowded it is combined with a lagging health care system, and a general lack of cleanliness outside of a few select areas, is probably overdue for an outbreak like that.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

I think it's time to retreat to the bio dome for a few months

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

I have family in the Guangzhou area, which is the second hardest hit part of China after Wuhan. They say that the hospital system there is overrun, people dying in the hallways and the streets. The government puts all of its efforts into suppressing news reports and social media posts about the sickness. Don't for a second believe the numbers coming from the Chinese government. All of our ideas on infection vectors and fatality rates are way off because of faked data.

So I would wager and guess that the 2% death rate is more around at least 4%.

Based off of what you are saying.

Hoping I'm wrong and somehow the Chinese Gov't is accurately reporting, but from what you say it's probably not.

What's
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There is no way they are providing accurate information. I doubt they even have accurate information to provide if they wanted to.

"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken" - Colonel Sanders via Ricky Bobby

Faked data and inaccurate data. What is the fatality rate of treatment vs no treatment. How good of treatment are people actually getting? So much data is missing.

"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken" - Colonel Sanders via Ricky Bobby

Hospitals in Guangzhou? hadn't heard that but I'll check it out. Definitely could be true.

Looks like the testing has advance quickly, but the vaccines have not.

"The advantage of the Meridian Lyo-Ready 1-Step RT-qPCR Mix is that the assay can be set up and freeze-dried, so that they are highly stable, just requiring the patient sample to be added and the assay run," Zhang said. "This means that patients can be screened very quickly to help stop the spread of this virus. We are pleased to have a reagent that works so well and makes economic sense for coronavirus diagnostics during these times of great urgency."

Whatever. It was one bad year.

Seasonal Brew means High ABV for football season and standard the rest of the year.

This is good news.

What's
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Central Mich vs Miami (OH) basketball game for tonight has been canceled after a Miami (OH) student has developed symptoms similar to the coronoavirus

MLive Link

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

W.T.F.

Leonard. Duh.

Couldn't they just have had that student (and any contacts) stay home?

I mean, this seems overdone for a "suspected" case.

As someone who lives withing a 50 mile radius of Miami, I am thrilled they did this.

Whatever. It was one bad year.

Seasonal Brew means High ABV for football season and standard the rest of the year.

New case just popped up in Germany. Almost on every continent now.

The heat map over China is basically all red. Crazy.

EDIT: The case in Africa, has disappeared.

What's
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Two people, in Germany and Japan, are said to have caught the virus without visiting China.

One of the patients was a Japanese tour bus driver in his 60s in the city of Nara who had driven two groups of Chinese tourists who had come from Wuhan earlier this month.​

It comes as Germany's first case of the virus was believed to have been infected by a Chinese colleague who visited his workplace.

The 33-year-old from the Starnberg area south of Munich is in isolation as a precaution, officials in Bavaria said. They said his condition was good.

Yikes! The likelihood of more people being infected in these cases is probably high. Especially the taxi cab driver one.

What's
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That Germany case would seem to confirm that you are contagious before symptoms appear. As the co-worker didn't report symptoms until they were on the flight back to China.

We've all watched way, way, WAY too much Walking Dead.

Leonard. Duh.

Felt like an appropriate time to brush off this old app/game.

What's
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They've actually seen a huge uptick in gameplay numbers recently. So much so that they issued a statement saying not to use the game as protocol for tracking this thing

New cases in Finland, Dubai, and another spot in Australia.

What's
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Just reported on the news that there are confirmed cases in India now. This thing is about to balloon.

They are also reporting that the number of cases is under reported because of lack of testing kits for the disease and doctors still haven't perfected the art of reporting it.

I also noticed another dot popped up on Australia over night. The second dot was there last night and now the third.

What's
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It was only a matter of time, hopefully India has spent the last week coming up with a plan and mobilizing the necessary resources. How long until we see international travel to these countries completely shut down?

Whatever. It was one bad year.

Seasonal Brew means High ABV for football season and standard the rest of the year.

It's crazy everyone hasn't way earlier

Recruit Prosim

A cruise ship is just as bad as a plane for catching something and holds 100 times more people. Also they can only hold them for a limited time until the utilities run out or fill up, interesting to see how this turns out.

Whatever. It was one bad year.

Seasonal Brew means High ABV for football season and standard the rest of the year.

This and the numerous Nora Virus outbreaks are why I'm not really interested in going when people try and convince me to do so.... That and one of my friends was stuck on one that ended early due to everyone catching something and having diarrhea until they turned around.......

I'll be a son of a bitch

Frame by Frame
Death by Drowning
In your own, In your own
Analysis
Step by step
Doubt by numbers
In your own, In your own
Analysis

Whelp, might be a good time to get sucked back into Classic WoW after my hiatus.

My employer has issued a travel ban to China until February 9th. Wow, I cannot recall ever receiving a mass email from the employer about it. This is truly unprecedented.

“Who is this Fuentes person that you speak about?” -McHokie540

There are entire countries closing off or controlling travel.

Yeah, it's a thing.

No, no, no. I am talking about my employer, whom I have been worked with for 14 years and going, issuing travel ban for employees, especially for business travel to China. I cannot recall the employer issuing travel ban. Ever.

“Who is this Fuentes person that you speak about?” -McHokie540

I've worked for companies who banned business travel to dangerous locations. It's often for reasons of armed conflict or high crime.

To me, it's bigger that entire countries are doing it for all citizens.

I don't think we've ever seen a self-quarantine of this size, or this big a global reaction, though.

The virus sounds highly contagious, and with a high mortality rate. They reacted with the quarantine a bit late, but so far it seems under control.

Mine did the same.

My employer also just announced an indefinite travel ban to China

Wow.

We have a manager who has been stuck in China since the middle of January.

“Who is this Fuentes person that you speak about?” -McHokie540

Our Coastal Enemy has been researching this very topic for years in collaboration with The Wuhan Institute of Virology. While the common source of the outbreak has been bats or snakes at some Wuhan market, others are suggesting the virus escaped from the labs at Wuhan Institute of Virology. Dangerous business to research and manipulate viruses like these. I'll also add, that some out there on social media are diving down the rabbit hole of these research connections and suggesting the virus was purposely allowed to escape the lab for purposes of "population thinning". I think that is unlikely, but it is another theory being spread around.

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)-CoV highlights the continued risk of cross-species transmission leading to epidemic disease. This manuscript describes efforts to extend surveillance beyond sequence analysis, constructing chimeric and full-length zoonotic coronaviruses to evaluate emergence potential. Focusing on SARS-like virus sequences isolated from Chinese horseshoe bats, the results indicate a significant threat posed by WIV1-CoV. Both full-length and chimeric WIV1-CoV readily replicated efficiently in human airway cultures and in vivo, suggesting capability of direct transmission to humans. In addition, while monoclonal antibody treatments prove effective, the SARS-based vaccine approach failed to confer protection. Together, the study indicates an ongoing threat posed by WIV1-related viruses and the need for continued study and surveillance.

And from the acknowledgements:

We thank Dr. Zhengli-Li Shi of the Wuhan Institute of Virology for access to bat CoV sequences and plasmid of WIV1-CoV spike protein.

So, I tried reading that link, too much jargon....but it sounds like the theory is the virus was developed in the lab, and an infected bat escaped the lab?

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

I am not a big conspiracy buff in this case, more of a walks like a duck, quack likes a duck, is a duck kind of person. Kinda of two minds. Pigs population were 40% down in china due to a swine flu must have puts stressors of some sort on the population to find other protein sources. But on the other mind, like we've all been told, we've all told, and Meatloaf sang about "2 out of 3 ain't bad," with the 2020 addendum that "3 out of three is a crime against humanity". Increased transmissibility... check... increased lethality... check.... increases latency ... check. This seems to be that kind of human engineered duck to me. Biology and DNA sequencing could probably figure this out given the access to China, alas we've seen no pressure, we've seen no dialogue to that extent. Hope they have the samples. Hope someone has raided (yes even if it is our soldiers) the Canadian lab.

WIth that said we don't know much still. The numerator and the denominator for the lethality calculation are very small as you essentially have to wait til everyone in a timeframe is either dead or well. Unfortunately the SARs lesson and the emerging lesson here is that it takes time to get better and even then some will be readmitted at that point the question will be who killed this person Wuhan virus or Uncle Betty's live snake liver pie. Similarly we really can't conclude a lot about the transmissibility or the latency, though it seems preliminarily, significant increases in all three metrics are possible.

Winnipeg and Wuhan - Sharing Sister Cities?

There are conspiracy theories and then there are theories. As you say, not a lot of information and certainly not a lot of trustworthy information at this point. As it stands now, the outbreak starting at the Wuhan lab is just as likely as the outbreak starting at the animal food market.

I don't bet people online, well in private either, but were I a betting man I would do so here.

Professionals who study this stuff if they have access to the underlying genomes etc. should be able to give a pretty authoritative probability / guess.

Starting with the status quo, why would a spontaneous natural combination of mutations lead to a pathogen far more pathogenic (not a professional don't feel like looking up the term) than the status quo. Don't get me wrong, it could be that natural mutations had more pathogenic options and were more likely to get pathogenic. But in general, life (presuming for a second a virus is life) is generally a process of mutation and natural selection. Most things found in nature reside in valleys where most mutations don't aren't selected for. So it is hard for mutations to get to the next "selected for" valley. The notion that some virus was out there amongst the bat population, mutated along those three vectors without crossing, umm, yeah i'm not buying that is a likely outcome. Way more likely we saw something mutated along one dimension or maybe two. But three, assuming facts not in evidence, an expert would have to explain why this is a reasonable probability.

Besides that some folks early on had access to 14 of the first patients and found few linkages to the Wuhan fish market. After patient 13 or so there were linkages. Note that the market is like 20 miles or so from the fish market. Not like it was a place where the virologists ate lunch.

The response of China itself, I think is damning. I don't think any country in the world is capable of responding the way they have. Amazing. But it leads me to believe once they figured out what they were dealing with, they knew they had to take dramatic action.

Then there is the crazy stuff, which makes some degree of sense.

More Conspiracy Theory Stuff

Then there is the stuff that no one yet believes, but has enough data that it is likely to be proven / disproven unless it can be squashed by authorities.

How is this a naturally occurring probability?

Either way I think China Inc. will suffer a tremendous reputational blow here. Whether a lab design or a fish market mutation, many Americans have had enough.

While much of what I have posted on this issue is alarmist, it does seem that this response is going to rely upon humans to have mastered their domain, that science and policy are going to be critical to averting crisis here.

Hopefully we have conditions for full worldwide engagement of the scientific community.

Reassuring the Data Sharing, Openness

One of the Better Articles I've Read

Mebbe I would have lost that above bet. There were some other articles with reasonably credible people refuting the Indian researchers claims that HIV resemblance meant engineered bioweapon. Was on phone and lost the articles.. They focused on the fact that this is 4 percent different than other strains, that this could just be mutation (naturally occurring). Not totally convincing for me (I'd like to see a bioweapon analyst weigh in on the issue), but it is reassuring the engagement, dialogue, consensus building that is being seen across the world's science community. The fact that it is happening in accelerated Internet time is pretty fascinating, gives me hope.

I would definitely rely on Science (especially the article you linked) as a good source. Nature is another good source (here). These two journals are the most distinguished in biology, and thus they will be the most accurate and authoritative.

Regarding the likelihood of mutation, RNA viruses (like coronavirus, influenza, HIV) mutate quickly and thus have very short evolutionary time periods. So while it is interesting that 2019-nCoV and HIV share some similarities, these same sequences are shared with several other viruses and thus HIV may not even be the source.

The bottom line is that the human 2019n-CoV shares a common ancestor with CoVs from bats and that there is likely an intermediate host species (or maybe even human manipulation) still yet to be uncovered. Thus the true source and place of origin remain unknown.

🦃 🦃 🦃

Thanks. I wish I had more time to figure this stuff out at the same time I don't want to figure out the biological codes for a living.

I was wrong in my underlying assumptions. I thought SARS was a few years ago, turns out it was early 2000s. So absent some smallish crosses, the last time this crossed was along time ago, plenty of room for mutation. They say the SARS is 75-78ish percent of nCOV.

There seems to have been a "bat" in 2012 that was 96%ish of nCov, but this wasn't a cross into humans, but a bat from a population they "routinely?" test in Wouhan?. In the interim there have been papers written about the possibility of a HIV insertion. One might hazard a guess and be called a chicken little or worse about whether that HIV insertion was really a bat found in nature, a bat injected with a SARs HIV insertion, or an explanatory data point manufactured in 2020 somewhere between SARS and nCov. Papers and interactions written by esteemed researchers in US, Canada, probably elsewhere. Players from China, DARPA, possibly Gates foundation. Sounds like man has some splainin to do, IMHO. By now it seems pretty clear that a HIV cocktail of sorts (not the same as is currently utilized for HIV in this country) will and may be required to fight this virus and reduce the viral load in those who live.

The people who hate liberty the most are usually the smartest, most maladjusted amongst us. To let this community run unchecked for so many years. Shame on us. Maybe this is just mutation. For me, I believe there is way too much smoke here. But I don't know if a stable society can allow this kind of knowledge and potential to lie within the manipulative grasp of humankind. And yet here we are, undaunted, unafraid, unyielding as we mount the altar of forbidden knowledge secure in the notion that mastery of this pandora's box is some sort of natural born right. Smacks of terrible terrible hubris if you ask me.

So, a few things.

The current coronavirus didn't descend from SARS, but shares a common ancestor. I'm not sure if this makes sense without an understanding of evolutionary biology, but I'll provide a quick (somewhat accurate) analogy. If a virus has two kids and names them A & B. They each have children of their own. The child of A becomes SARS. The great grandchild of B becomes 2019-nCoV (after much latency). The difference in sequence is due to the fact that A (and its progeny) has drifted from B (and its progeny). And B in the meantime has picked up sequences that are similar to HIV (but probably not directly, unless human directed manipulation).

Also a note about the HIV/Flu cocktail treatment. The HIV portion of the cocktail doesn't work because there are similarities in some of the genetic code of shared between Cov with HIV, but due to the fact that they share a similar reproduction strategy. Various viruses have similar reproduction strategies and HIV and CoV require a step called "reverse transcription." The HIV drugs being utilized (lopinavir and ritonavir) specifically target and inhibit this step. Thus, these drugs developed specifically for HIV can be used for CoV. The Flu drug (oseltamivir) helps block viral proteins that make it easier to enter into a human host cell.

Generally speaking, I'm not going to get into your sentiment regarding the scientific community.

With that said, China has been a source of science that has warranted higher scrutiny among the scientific and intellectual property communities. It is interesting that the FBI just arrested a Harvard chemist that lied to U.S. gov't about working with Chinese labs and specifically the Wuhan University of Technology. While this arrest has nothing to do with Coronavirus, it highlights that there are "rogue scientists" that are helping the Chinese in some sort of fashion illegally. (Article)

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the virus "escaping" does not mean a bat escaped. More likely, a lab tech or someone came into contact with the virus.

there is no theory in this paper. The authors demonstrate that coronavirus that resides in bats can relatively easily transform into virulent strain that can be transmitted via humans. It essentially provides an indication that a pandemic like the one we have now is possible from the bats that live in Wuhan.

That said, the institute of Virology in Wuhan works on this virus. And the conspiracy theory is that they are building bioweapons there and the strain leaked from there. Experts in the field think that's unlikely.
WP article debunking conspiracy theory

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Right, I didn't mean the article referenced a theory, but that the article provided circumstantial evidence of that theory that I've seen in more than one place.

Not saying I believe it, just looking for all sides

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

ah, you mean UNC.

Getting sequences and plasmids from someone is hardly a collaboration. They could have even paid for them.

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Probably gunning down patients and their families. Can't have a patient zero if they don't exist.

Something about modern problems and modern solutions goes here.

Ok. Ok. Delete patient and families' social media accounts and gun them down with laser guns.

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

Just saw a FB post by a friend teaching in Nansha, she's apparently in Thailand near Phuket right now. So glad she made it out.

Fernley, I hope you've gotten out of there before the doors close.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Thailand has a case of it there. Not sure if it spread though.

What's
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We're hunkered down in Shanghai. There are actually a lot of foreigners here holding through, even if the city is a ghost town. I was here through SARS as well and there are differences. For me it's mostly due to my daughter and the risk of getting on an enclosed space for 12+ hours.

This time people are definitely a lot more concerned but Shanghai has been extremely proactive and I am in contact with the heads of government here. So I am keeping ahead of information more than most.

Good to hear. Stay safe, my Hokie friend.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

First case in Boston just reported.

Also Delta has stopped flights to and from China.

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The first reported death outside of China in the Philippines.

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The associate pastor at our church and his wife are coming back from Taiwan today and flew through China. They are quarantining themselves at home for two weeks.

They also flew through Newark which requires quarantine precautions of its own.

Cure might have been found

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-treatme...

Basically, a cocktail of flu and HIV medicine is blocking the spread inside the bodies of infected people in Thailand. One patient went from testing positive to clean bill of health within 48 hours of administration. 11 of 18 have fully recovered and the others are showing signs of improvement.

China is now using the same treatment as well.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

The fourth paragraph is a quote from a doctor administering the drug cocktail and he said "This is not the cure." So no, it is not the cure for coronavirus. It might be a potential lead or it might be a dumb fluke.

If they stop taking the cocktail, does the viral load increase? That would comport with what the doctor said. I thought HIV cocktails were about 400k lifetime value. Of course that translates to 40k or so in China. But still, the HIV cocktail manufacturers are going to make hey if this gets out of hand until there is something like a vaccine. Is it even possible to develop a vaccine against an RNA virus? I haven't kept up with HIV market, but last I heard you still had to take the cocktails or you ran the risk of load increasing.

Certainly good news

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Must be taking a while to spread the word. The rate of infection seemed to be leveling off yesterday, but jumped according to the data set above.

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For those who are interested in modeling nCoV here is a great link. If the model stated is stable and accurate the infection will reach a peak sometime in March with 4 million dead. Of course, this is based upon many factors that will more than likely not come to fruition. Still, the model proposed is quite intriguing. https://www.r-bloggers.com/epidemiology-how-contagious-is-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov/

4 million dead in March seems a bit high...

El. Psy. Kongroo.

I agree. I doubt we will hear much about this after another week or so.

And you can thank Chinese censorship for that.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

The coverup of this virus reminds me a lot of how the Soviet Union buried info about Chernobyl as it was happening.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

The article states that the data is still fluid, and that the point was to demonstrate the math/programming behind the modeling.

Do not panic! All of this is preliminary and hopefully (probably!) false. When you play along with the above model you will see that the fitted parameters are far from stable. On the one hand, the purpose of this post was just to give an illustration of how such analyses are done in general with a very simple (probably too simple!) model, on the other hand, we are in good company here; the renowned scientific journal nature writes:

Researchers are struggling to accurately model the outbreak and predict how it might unfold.

On the other hand, I wouldn't go that far that the numbers are impossibly high. H1N1, also known as swine flu, infected up to 1.5 billion people during 2009/2010 and nearly 600,000 died. And this wasn't the first pandemic of this proportion in history (think Spanish flu). Yet, this is one of the few times where I hope that my model is wrong and we will all stay healthy!

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

There was an infant that showed signs of a fever under investigation here in the US. Not confirmed Coronavirus, but a possible case.

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I hope there is a lot more to this story because an infant with a fever is hardly news. They get them for all kinds of reasons.

"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken" - Colonel Sanders via Ricky Bobby

I couldn't find an article to link yesterday as it pulled up a bunch of different things and I couldn't pin point the right one.

The infant had parents that were in China recently. Thus why they started to monitor the child for the virus when he had the fever.

Edit

Here is link to what was being reported in the news on Monday.

Coronavirus quarantine: Child hospitalized with fever in California

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Moving forward it would be best to wait until you have a source / excerpt of information to share, otherwise it's really only noise.

This guy claims whisky cured his coronavirus.

Now, I'm no doctor, nor do I play one on TV, but shouldn't we at least hear him out?

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

This seems like your area of expertise, so we'll have to defer to you on this one.

Been working on that doctorate for years.

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

Well, at least you're willing to do some field work.

His coronavirus was sick?

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Just bought tickets for a trip to South Korea in April and now I'm wondering how worried I should be.

Less worried than if you were going to North Korea

"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken" - Colonel Sanders via Ricky Bobby

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Yes, the infection is what killed him....

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

I guess high velocity lead is an infection of sorts.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

One of the last places where I'd want to be quarantined.

Me, if I was on that ship.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Check out the CGI of the stuff exploding in mid air in front of his face.

China has started detaining suspected sick people and shoving them in boxes. I think things are much worse than China is letting on.

If you dig into the original source of this tweet, they post sensationalist articles and are not a great source. This video I think is definitely real, but the screaming at the end once the lady is put in the box seems like it was added. The scream doesn't sound like it's coming from Inside a metal container from this far away. The situation still isn't good though.

This whole thing has been sensationalized from the start.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

"What are you going to do, stab me? - Quote from Man Stabbed

I don't know what that is, but it's not good, however you look at it.

RCCL's Anthem of the Seas which is sailing between NY and Bermuda had 4 Chinese nationals test positive for coronavirus.

From what I've read the belief is that the virus got on the Princess ship via contaminated food from the Chinese mainland.

So far, it really seems like this virus is spreading to and through people who either have been to China or have closely interacted with someone who had been to China in the recent past. At a certain point, it seems like the best course of action will be to globally restrict travel for anyone from China until this all settles down.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

Note to self: Don't pick up pangolin in the market today.

(add if applicable) /s

D'awwwwwww!

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Well, they are selling at a discount today...

Who's that Pokemon

Has anyone read World War Z? (the book is so much better than the movie)

That whole thing started in a rural part of China and was covered up by the Chinese government. Life imitating fiction

I mean, its not exactly earth shattering that either of those things are true regarding a disease outbreak.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

I'm waiting on the ease outbreak.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Don't hold your breath my friend

My trading company was just asked if we could help source 12 million masks to Russia, so it's clearly a lot worse there than they are telling the world.

ZeroHedge and EpochTimes have the best reporting on coronavirus. ZH was banned from twitter over it, but they're simply trying to report facts/truth.

Obviously not sure how this will play out. But it really feels like this could indeed be a man-made weaponized virus.

Given the extreme measures that China has taken, it only makes sense at this point to assume it is much worse than what they are reporting.

It just feels like when this is all done and we learn more the estimated dead will be 1M+ or maybe far worse.

Sorry, but I'm not believing anything ZeroHedge says without some corroborating information. They peddle in bullshit conspiracy theories all the time.