Realty Resource from TKP Sponsor NEST NRV

Good Morning TKP,

I'm pleased to let everyone know NEST NRV has extend our sponsorship of TKP for another year. As principal broker, I'm excited to serve the TKP community. Whether you have general questions about the market, best-practices to position yourself in a strong seller's market, or whether you're directly looking to buy or sell in the New River Valley, I'm here to help. I'll answer any questions whenever I see them in this thread. And please feel free to reach out directly.



DISCLAIMER: Forum topics may not have been written or edited by The Key Play staff.


Reminder there's a real live realtor lurking among you to answer any home buying, selling or general questions you might have about the Blacksburg market, NRV or abroad.

I'm not aware of how the Blacksburg/NRV market for buyers right now, but NOVA is absolutely bonkers. I've had friends consistently get out bid with offers that are consistently at least 10% over asking price (sometimes cash) and sometimes appraisal with waiving inspections and everything else. Do you expect the market will pull back at all?

I'm pretty sure this is the case in any area that is considered "desirable". Houses in Richmond sell the day they are listed for well over asking price. It's insane.

Yeah it's the same here in the NRV, with Blacksburg being the worst in the area. I have been out bid on 3 houses now in Montgomery County, including one yesterday within Bird's broker. People are paying $10k+ over asking price and waiving inspections. It's absolutely nuts!

I'm so glad that my wife and I purchased at the end of last spring. We were able to purchase at asking price/appraisal value. There's even less homes hitting the market in my neighborhood now, that each one goes for $25k-$50k over asking.

Probably gonna sit tight for a while and stop stressing over these over priced houses. Luckily my realtor got me into a townhouse that will rent to me month to month for as long as I need it. Sit and wait for building material prices to come back to earth and maybe build.

Custom build is a whole other level of hurt and expense.

I agree. Had a custom built home in Louisiana that spoiled my wife though. Then moved to a spec house in Christiansburg and was lucky to be able to get out of it in only 2 years because of the market.

Just trying to weigh all my options right now. It can never be a buyer's market and a seller's market at the same time and right now it is completely a seller's market. Probably just going to sit tight for a while until it comes back down to earth. Well, until my wife finds another one she falls in love with...

"it can never be a buyer's market and a seller's market at the same time ..." Say it again, louder!

We've had this conversation - and countless others like it - for at least a year now, it seems. And they'll continue, as well, but we can't say for how long. For now, at least, patience is the name of the game for buyers. 25% over list price is the highest we've seen in the last year, but 7-12% is not uncommon in most price points. It's unsustainable, although the same lending loopholes that were available in the mid-2000s don't exist any longer, so it feels different. That said, a combination of inflation + rising rates + buyer fatigue will slow this down, and all three of those components are on the horizon.

How far out on the horizon would you guess? Also, what's the outlook for rates over the next year? Hopefully it doesn't shoot back up to the late 2018 rates.

Next year, would be my guess, or possibly 2023. Like a train it takes a long time to slow down an economy, but I think we'll see buyers get fed up and sit on the sidelines, inflation rise, and interest rates rise, in that order. It has to come back to an equilibrium at some point, I just don't know when.

Rates are ticking up slightly, but in the next 90 days I'd guess we're still ~ 3.5% on a conventional 30-year loan. With the Fed continuing to say that they're going to maintain for the foreseeable future, that should serve as a counter to an active economy for a while. At the end of the day, though, I feel like we've become immune to what's low. My first house in 2002 was at 8%, plenty of others at 12% or more - Even if we're at 5% (2018 numbers) that's still really cheap borrowing rates, overall - probably comes down to an individual's comfort level?

goes hand in hand with the comfort of borrowing a given amount. i am not dropping 350k on a 3/2 townhome in central new jersey if i also have to borrow at 5-6%. I currently find myself in the "it makes sense to buy from a monthly cashflow perspective, but not when i look at my overall financial picture" boat.

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

we talk about this all the time within the office - forest for the trees. Good to be thinking long-term.

The house next door to ours went on the market last Friday morning and was sold within 6 hours. It's...nuts.

We were getting outbid repeatedly in south Jersey on homes. Ended up offering something like 10% or 12% more than asking price the first day our house went on the market with an all cash offer to finally get one. It was insane near the end of last year. Good luck if you are looking. Hopefully you have a house now and can benefit from the same issues when you list your current one.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

Not looking since we got lucky last spring getting a house at asking. Now we are looking to possibly refinance before we've even been in the house for a year. Just trying to estimate appraisal before we move forward. We would already save at least several hundred a month on the mortgage.

It's an insane market just about everywhere right now.

If a house in the 3/2 size range goes on the market in Greenville, SC right now at a half decent price it has 20+ offers on it instantly. The only listings that last longer than that are the pre-flipped houses that are listed at excessive premiums. Very intimidating environment for a first time house buyer.

Came here to say this - housing is insane in any mildly-metropolitan market, or any vacation area. It's totally a seller's market right now.

Twitter me

Birds where is the market headed in hot areas. We live in NE Florida and the builders and developers can't build fast though for demand. We have already gotten two letters from people who either want to rent our home for triple our monotype mortgage or buy it about 25k what it's valued at. How long will this last? We were hoping to buy a plot in the intracloastal next year but prices just keep climbing.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

If you don't need the lot today, I'd say wait and let things settle a bit. Unless you're buying a home that you fully expect to be in for (in most markets) 5-7+ years, or you're buying income-producing property that cash flows, it seems to make sense for most buyers to wait.

[Disclaimer - I am not licensed in FL. My opinions are for entertainment purposes only.]

"Fun" fact. There are twice as many Realtors nationwide as there are available homes right now. In large metro areas - San Diego, Atlanta, etc. - 100+ offers in a weekend isn't uncommon. To my knowledge, 20 offers on one house is the local record right now. We've seen this before - it'll change, but it's TOUGH for buyers. I've mentioned this on Twitter a few times but if you don't have to buy right now, you might want to sit this one out. It's ugly.

Try building right now... Ugh...

Had a discussion with my pops the other day on how nuts it is as we like to go to real estate auctions all the time and he feels this year really resembles 2007 and that eventually sometime in the not so distant future things will come back to earth. Anyone else feel this way? We've just about quit looking as nothing is going for reasonable rates right now and its not worth the hassle at the moment.

Directions from Blacksburg to whoville, go north till you smell it then go east until you step in it

Having ridden the 2007 roller coaster I can say I feel the same, although in this case the coaster feels more sturdy than it did then. That's in large part to how stupidly easy it was to get money at that time.

Personally I'm not buying either, and suggesting to clients that want to buy that they have a 5-year plan to stay in their house before they do so.

Definitely agree it feels better but still in a sense just like 2007. Super glad we bought and built a house two years ago as this was all just beginning to get out of hand. Are you guys seeing as much traffic of people moving out of the cities due to covid as you were at the beginning when people started working remotely and considered moving further out due to less commute/no commuting? We had a bunch of people who used to work at our local offices all move to nice places once they went to remote working like the OBX and more rural areas since they now can work from home full time.

Directions from Blacksburg to whoville, go north till you smell it then go east until you step in it

We are - no hard and fast numbers from the economic development folks on that yet, but it's definitely had an impact. Just wrapped up a call, in fact, with someone who's been commuting from Charlotte because his spouse's job kept them there, but that's just been changed to remote so they're moving here full-time. Happening more and more. #LiveWhereYouLove

As someone who has to work in house each day I envy those who work from home wherever they want to be. Maybe one day but a bunch of our sales team moved to the OBX and now fish from work and like to pass pictures along as they "work"

Directions from Blacksburg to whoville, go north till you smell it then go east until you step in it

I am lucky to have some friends in Real Estate who told me last year if I was going to buy then it was time. Boy am I glad I did because not only was it s buyers market but it was a walk in the park. I don't even think I would consider it right now unless I had to.

Undo the calamity that is your mammaries

I'd love some advice on my situation:

I own a townhouse in Alexandria, and its one of the largest units in my neighborhood. They're all 1946 Duplex townhouses, but I have a basement and 3BR + 2.5 bath whereas most of the others are 2BR without a basement.

I'm seeing places go for $100K more than what I paid in 2016, and I am thinking it is time for me to sell despite not necessarily knowing what would be next for me. GF would be moving in with me wherever the next place is, but her lease isn't up until Oct.

If I sold now, I could put things in storage / live with family for the next ~6 months, would that make sense? My thinking is sell now while the market is at its peak, which means I don't miss out on a super hot market and a possible slowdown could make buying easier.

Not 100% sure if I'll buy in NOVA/DC area in the fall, I'm pushing for RVA but haven't figured that out yet.

Hokies United l Ut Prosim

For entertainment purposes only ... I have colleagues up in NOVA I'm happy to connect you with if you want specific advice to your situation.

- buy low, sell high, so you'd certainly benefit from that advice.
- would it make sense to keep it as a rental? While the market is super hot now, there are plenty of people who don't want to buy who are happy and content renting, so there's likely not a shortage of good tenants. Rentals are feeling a similar squeeze to sales, so a good, oversized unit in Alexandria would easily rent?
- do nothing. You still need a roof over your head, and living with family again can get weird.

Thanks. I have options, which is good - actually meeting with real estate agent this afternoon to begin preliminary discussions but will circle back if it doesn't seem like a good fit.

Hokies United l Ut Prosim