2025-26 Hokie Hoops Statistical Notes: Volume IV

In this, the last issue of 2025, we are close to wrapping up our non-conference schedules and taking stock of where we are before the meatgrinders that are ACC basketball begin.

The Men's Team

I said if Tobi Lawal was healthy, our ceiling for this frame would be 2-2. Oh, how wrong I was. The second clean sweep puts the Hokies at 10-2, with a pretty solid resume up to this point. The Hokies are 0-1 in Quad 1, but 4-1 in Quadrant 2, as well as clean sweeping Quadrant 4, up to this point 6-0. Along the way, CMY notched his 115th win as the Hokie ballcoach.

Scoring

Scoring has improved considerably, even without Lawal, as the four-game average went from 69.5 ppg to 84.25ppg. Leading the Hokies is Amani Hansberry with 16.75 ppg, followed closely by Neo Avdalas' 16.25ppg. Joining them in double figures are Ben Hammond with 12.25 and Jaden Schutt's 11.5. Close behind was Tyler Johnson with 9.5, followed by Gurdack's 6, Bedford's 5.33, and Dorn's 5.25. Sin'Cere Jones rounded out all scoring with the last ppg.

As of right now, the Hokies have four double-figure scorers, and 3 more who are within 1.1 ppg of doing so. That's a good spot to be in.

If there is one glaringly obvious scoring weakness on this team, it is from the line. 70.4% is not going to cut it. We need to improve that dramatically if we want to be competitive in the ACC. I would hope for at least 76.5%

Rebounding

Rebounding picked up slightly, going from 28.5 rpg to 31.25. Hansberry led all with 9, doubling the second best (Gurdack's 4.5). Avdalas (4) was the only other Hokie to average at least 2 rebounds per half. Bedford (3.33), Johnson and Hammond (3.25), and Dorn (2.25) were the only to average at least 1 rebound per half. Schutt and Jones each averaged a rebound per game, with Isaiah Pasha contributing the remaining 0.66 boards per game.

The bad news is that the Hokies are outside of the top 200 with their rebounding numbers. The other bad news is that they are also outside the top 15 in the ACC. We're also only outrebounding our opponents by a total of 2 rebounds. Not per game. Total.

Assists

The Hokies returned to their Episode 2 ballhandling numbers, dishing out 73 assists to 37 turnovers. Adjust in the 29 steals, and you have an AATO of 73:8, bringing the total to 196 assists to 108 turnovers, adjusted with 90 steals. Do the math and our steals-adjusted ATO margin is 196:18.

This has led to the Hokies having the 2nd best turnover margin in the ACC at +4.5 (Behind FSU) and the 2nd best ATO margin in the ACC (behind Duke).

Experience/Depth

The loss of Lawal has had a significant impact on minutes, as would any team losing their top minute earner.

Those with at least 30 mpg were led by Hansberry (33), and include Avdalas (32) and Johnson (30.5). Only two Hokies averaged at least half a game, led by Schutt (26.5), and followed by Hammond (25.5). Of the remaining 3 to have gotten in every game, they were led by Dorn (16.5), and finished with Gurdack (15) and Jones (5.5). Bedford missed one game, but still put in 18.66 mpg. Pasha put up 10 mpg, missing 1 game.

All told, Avdalas, Johnson, Hansberry, and Hammond are in the 300 minute club, with 369, 365, 338, and 305 respectively. In the 200 club, we have Schutt (285) and Bedford (244). The 100 minute club is Lawal (181), Gurdack (129), and Dorn (124). Isaiah Pasha (72) and Sin'Cere Jones (30) have rounded out the playing time.

This shows a heavy reliance on a deep guard bench, as the six guards have accrued 1640 total minutes, or 136.66 mpg. The bigs have only put up 802 total minutes, good for 66.83 mpg. Undoubtedly, this is due to the lack of Lawal, but it does mean that we're getting about 1.5 positions' worth of minutes from the bigs, and 3.5 from the guards, demonstrating the versatility to go 3-guard or 4-guard throughout the game. I also can't stress, enough, the importance of getting your young bigs as much experience before conference play as possible. Young as done this, hopefully well enough to avoid the Freshman wall.

Next Four

Tech starts off by welcoming their last non-conference foe, Elon, to Cassell. Rated 144th in Net, this is actually a Quad 3 matchup. The Phoenix are 6-4, with losses to Marshall, Miami, Mercer, and Furman, though I will be expecting to see a loss to Richmond included by the time of the game. They don't play big, despite having a 6-11 Soph, a 6-9 Sr, and a 6-9 Fr. All told, those bigs have 168 total minutes played. That being said, you will see a trio of 6-8 bigs in top scorer and rebounder, Chandler Cuthrell, surprisingly lethal beyond the arc Kacper Klaczek, and sixth-man Isaac Harrell. Expect about 80 minutes from the three of them combined. Starting guards all play specific roles. Pettus will be the scoring threat, especially from range. Carr is the defensive menace and point guard, and Cokley is the FT specialist.

Then things get more difficult quick, fast, and in a hurry, as Quadrant 1 Virginia comes to town on New Year's Eve, with one loss to Butler. Get ready for height, and a lot of it, as the Hoos have two 7-footers who play a combined 40 mpg. Top scorer is 6-9 F Thijs De Ridder, who splits time with 6-7 Devin Tillis. Five guards share the three guard spots, with Mallory and Hall being the main passers. Thomas, White, and Lewis will be the scorers, averaging a combined 31.2 ppg. That being said, they mostly go 8 deep, rebound very well, don't turn the ball over, pass well, and shoot well from deep. Weaknesses of this team are that they aren't as ballhawkish and they are worse from the charity stripe than we are, if you can believe that.

Staying in Quadrant 1, and going into 2026, the Hokies travel to Wake Forest, although they have 3 games between now and then and who knows where they will be by then. The Deacs have some height, but the three of them (6-10 Cooper Schwieger, 6-9 Marqus Marion, and 6-8 Omaha Billew) only combine for 52.9 mpg. They get the majority of their production from 6-7 Tre'Von Spillers (14.2 ppg, 6.0 rpg) and Juke Harris (20.7 ppg and 6.9 rpg). 6-5 guards Mekhi Mason and Myles Colvin (10.1 and 11.5 ppg) are the remaining scoring threats. The Deacs go 4 bigs and 5 guards deep. They're not the best from beyond the arc, but they are one of the better FT shooting teams in the ACC at almost 76%.

Rounding out the series, we have Stanford, also a potential Quad 3 matchup. It looks like they go about 10-deep, with a rare 60-40 balance in bigs to guards. Part of that is they have serious height. They will have 6-10 Aidan Cammann and 6-9 AJ Rohosy down low for most of the game, with the occasional appearance of 6-10 Oskar Giltay and 6-7 Cameron Grant. If they need to, they can also go to 6-10 Kristers Skrinda. Ebuka Okorie is the engine of the Cardinal offense, putting up 21 ppg and dishing out 3.1 assists, and is an aggressive defender with 1.8 steals per game. 6-8 F Chisom Okpara is also going to be a scoring threat, averaging 15.2 per game, but he can be careless with the ball, averaging 3.2 turnovers per game. Outside, we have to keep a man stuck on Benny Gealer (45.3% from range) and Jeremy Dent-Smith (37%), and for the love of all that is holy, don't foul their guards. Dent-Smith is the worst of their guards, at 80% from the line. Outside of Okpara (75.8%), hack away, as the best big FT shooter on their team is Cammann (71.4%) before dropping to 60% (Giltay) and 32.1% (Rohosy)

Prediction

Elon and Stanford should be comfortable, if not easy, wins. The Hokies have lost their last two in Winston-Salem, and 4 of the last 5 overall against the Deacs, with the losses not particularly close. In the last five home games, the Hokies have emerged victorious in all but the most recent, with that one ending with a game tying 3 just missing.

So with all considered, I think the Hokies can go 3-1 against this schedule, staying perfect at home, with the loss coming on the road and starting off 2-1 in conference play.

The Women's Team

I thought we'd go 3-1 and I was right, just not who we'd lose to. The wins have given Duffy her 28th win as the head whistle, passing Carol Alfano's 26 through their first 2 years, ten behind Beth Dunkenberger. The losses on the year have come against Quad 1 JMU and Quad 2s BYU and Duke. The wins have come against Quad 1 Florida, Quad 3s Coastal Carolina and Oregon St, and Quad 4 everybody else, so, like the men, no bad OOC losses, but they have that Quad 1 win.

Scoring

Scoring picked up a little bit over the last four games, with an average of 72ppg, up from 69.25. Only Carys Baker scored in double figures, with 14ppg, followed by Suffren (9.8), Wenzel (9.5), and Daley (8.8) in a basket per quarter. Freelon (7.5), Nelson (7), Trent (5), Wells (4.8), and Brecelj (4) averaged a basket per half. Peterson (3), Jenkins (2.7), and Swanson (2) averaged a basket per game. All told, the Hokies have three players on the year (Wenzel, Baker, Daley) in double figures, with Freelon (9.67) and Suffren (8.67) very close.

Rebounding

Rebounding picked way up, improving by 5.25 rebounds per game. Baker leads all with 7.75 per, then a logjam in the 4s with Freelon (4.75), Petersen (4.5), Wenzel (4.25), and Trent (4). Daley (3.75) leads all those with less than 1 per half, followed by Suffren and Wells (2.5), and Brecelj (2). Nelson (1.66), Jenkins (1.33) and Swanson (1) rounded out the rebounders.

Assists

Finishing this frame with a 58:52 ATO margin, it doesn't look great for the Hokies ball movement skills, but when adjusted for steals, that becomes 58:12. The Hokies are tied for 3rd in the ACC in assists, dishing out 16.25 per on the year. Mackie Nelson leads the ACC with 6 assists per game, while Carleigh Wenzel is tied for 13th. Nelson also leads in ATO margin with a 3.5 to 1 ratio. I know we give Wenzel grief, but she's still sitting at 21st with a 1:1 margin. As bad as we think we've seen, we're still 2nd in turnover margin in the conference, behind only Notre Dame. The Hokies sit 5th in the ACC in steals at 9.67 per game. 195 assists on the year, to 165 turnovers, adjusted by 116 steals, gives us an season-long AATO of 195:49. Oh, and those 116 steals are just 7 shy of our 2023-24 campaign's season total.

Experience/Depth

Freelon saw her minutes cut back by almost half, with the beneficiary of that being Aniya Trent. Again, I would say bringing along your young bigs early in the year will pay off dividends later in the year and later in their career. Baker (30.25) and Nelson (30) were the only in the thirties. Wenzel (28.5), and Daley (24.5) were the only in the twenties. Six Hokies averaged in the tens, led by Suffren (18.75), followed by Trent and Wells (16.5), Freelon (14.75), Peterson (12.75), and Brecelj (12). Swanson nabbed 8 mpg, while Jenkins averaged 7.33mpg.

On the whole, the Hokies will be fresh for ACC play. Carys Baker is the only player averaging more than 30 mpg, which is only 17th in the ACC. In an 18 team league, that's not bad. Ask Notre Dame who has 4 in the top 12 or NC State who has 4 in the top 22. Yes they have good players, but wear and tear is wear and tear.

Next Four

Our first ACC road game, Florida State, is up first. A Quad 2 team, the Noles are tough down low, with 6-6 Pania Davis clogging the lane, aided by 6-3 Avery Treadwell and Tatum Greene, and 602 Allie Kubek. Expect to see at least 9 Noles, as they play their entire bench almost every game and not for a good reason. They've been blown out by UCONN, Notre Dame, Georgia, Illinois, Florida, and Oklahoma, and also have losses to Indiana and Charleston. They haven't won a home game since November 12 (Nicholls). This is a game we need to hit from beyond the arc.

Ending our non-conference slate we welcome Radford (252). Everything for the Highlander offence goes through their 6-4 C Lindsee Williams, the lone scorer in double figures. They are somehow worse shooting beyond the arc at 26.6% and they are 225th in FT%. Like FSU they turn the ball over more than they dish out assists, and but they are aggressive defensively, averaging almost as many steals as we do.

Miami comes to Blacksburg as a Quad 2 game. They also have a 6-6 tower down low in Ra Shya Kyle, like FSU, and like Radford, Miami's scoring goes through the paint, getting 22 ppg from their Cs and 9.4 from their primary Fs. Four primary guards combine for 40.5, with not much coming from outside the arc.

Ending this, we go on the road for Quad 1 Louisville. They are 10-3, but their only losses have been against ranked opponents. They have height, but they don't use it, regularly only playing two 6-3 players in Anaya Hardy and Elif Istanbulluoglu for a combined 39 mpg. The whole team moves the ball very well, with no player having 3 assists per game, yet averaging 16 per game. They couple this with 11.3 turnovers per game. I would say that they have a reasonable depth, they've only had 3 forwards and 4 guards play all 12 games to this point, with another forward being the only other to have played 10 games, compared to the Hokies who have had 5 play all 12 games, with 3 playing at least 10. Our deep bench has more size, but theirs has more scoring.

Prediction

It's been ugly for the Hokies in Tallahassee, with the Hokies only winning twice as an ACC team, but this is a very winnable game for the Hokies ESPN has us winning 58.5-41.5. Limit mistakes, cause mistakes, hit shots. Radford should be an easy win, with all 12 Hokies seeing action. ESPN has us beating Miami 70-30, so I'll take their advice. Louisville is a cursed maw from which no joy escapes.

Hokies go 3-1, improving to 2-2 in ACC play.