Gobblermetrics: #ALLMAROONEVERYTHING

How have the Hokies performed in #ALLMAROONEVERYTHING and other uniform combinations.

Hello. Advanced statistics are all the rage these days. Analysts delve deep into nuanced and complex data to come up with some pretty shocking conclusions. We here at The Key Play are unrelenting. We want to find those set(s) of numbers that will explain the entirety of Hokie football and probably the meaning of life1.

In addition, we listen to the fans. Not only because we are fans and we can hear ourselves talk, but because Hokie Nation has some burning questions that we feel finally need to be addressed. Joe let me use our shiny new press credentials2 to go out and buy a HIGHLY advanced and EXTREMELY costly3 data visualization tool to start answering some of them.

Everyone wants to see a team draped in #ALLMAROONEVERYTHING take the field at Lane Stadium. That has not happened since Sept 26, 20094 when Miami was treated to their second helping of an #ALLMAROONEVERYTHING butt whooping. And it appears that Whit Babcock, doing his best to convey that he actually cares about the fans, seems inclined to grant us our hearts' desire. But how effective, historically, has #ALLMAROONEVERYTHING been? And, just as any other weapon has a set of optimized conditions in which to deploy it, what is the most effective use of its powers?

Before we dive in, a quick thank you to Clark Ruhland and his badass uni builder on his awesome website which was invaluable in researching this effort. Please note that I only evaluated true #ALLMAROONEVERYTHING occurrences. Last year's Georgia Tech game, sadly, does not count since the helmets were really more of a grey than a maroon. That being said, let's take a quick stroll through the history of #ALLMAROONEVERYTHING.

A game by game look at this history of this beautiful uniform over the last 25 seasons

While I don't currently have the resources to go back further than the Beamer era, #ALLMAROONEVERYTHING made its modern debut on November 24, 1990, in a 38 (sound familiar, bro?) to 13 win over Virginia. After that, it was used infrequently until the 2003 season when it was worn four times. The Hokies had mixed success, posting a 7-7 record in #ALLMAROONEVERYTHING until the current five-game win streak started with a win over FSU in 2007. This streak also includes wins against Miami and LOLUVA. Speaking of which, how have we fared against different opponents?

Looking at our wins (top) and losses (bottom) against all the opponents who've faced #ALLMAROONEVERYTHING

We can establish a set of rules.

1. Always feel free to use #ALLMAROONEVERYTHING against teams from Florida and/or teams that begin with the letter 'M'.

This one seems pretty self explanatory. The infamous "Give it to me, Roscoe!" game, one of only two victories against FSU in the last 40 years, and the perfect antidote to the Maryland Imperial Stormtrooper uniforms5.

2. Tangentially related to Rule No. 1: Always feel free to use them when a hurricane is involved.

Whether it's Hurricane Isabel rolling into town along with Texas A&M or Tropical Depression Brock Berlin, #ALLMAROONEVERYTHING combines its powers with gale force winds to provide victory to the Hokies.

3. NEVER WEAR THEM AGAINST BOSTON COLLEGE.

Seriously, eff Matt Ryan.

Okay, so this is some good intel. What else can we learn about #ALLMAROONEVERYTHING? Well, here's something that may blow your mind.

Where has #ALLMAROONEVERYTHING been deployed? To what effect?

You may not recall, but #ALLMAROONEVERYTHING has been deployed twice outside of Lane Stadium, both times in bowl games. Both times to disastrous results. There was the attempt to break the scoreboard against Cal, and the meltdown against Georgia in the Peach Bowl. Without these two misadventures, #ALLMAROONEVERYTHING would boast a more impressive 71% winning percentage. Which leads us to Rule No. 4:

4. Never wear #ALLMAROONEVERYTHING outside of the Terror Dome.

One last item breakdown to look at. I'm pretty superstitious, if you couldn't tell by me doing a statistical breakdown of a uniform's effect on our winning percentage. But perhaps there's something more we can learn if we look at WHEN it's deployed.

A breakdown of winning percentage by weekday and kickoff time

5. Never wear #ALLMAROONEVERYTHING on Friday.

Guess we'll just have to show up in something else to beat LOLUVA this year. I mean, do we even need to wear pads against them? Maybe that would make it more fair if we didn't?

6. No #ALLMAROONEVERYTHING for kickoffs at 1:00 or after 7:30.

The first one should (hopefully) be a non-factor as 1:00 kickoffs go the way of the dodo bird. The second part feels a lot like a rule for caring for your Mogwai, which means it's almost certainly reliable.

Looking at these trends is very helpful, but how does #ALLMAROONEVERYTHING stack up against other uniform combos?

A look at winning percentage as well as average margin of victory by uniform combo

Huh. Oddly, we're actually better in white pants, both in terms of winning percentage and a more than DOUBLE average margin of victory. Amazingly, we actually win at a better rate in two different combos with WHITE jerseys (which is generally road games) than #ALLMAROONEVERYTHING. Dare I say it...does #ALLMAROONEVERYTHING actually help our performance on the field at all?

Oh...wait, so you guys just like it because it looks cool? Oh...okay. Alright, I'm down with that. And you know...with such a small sample size, we're really just going to need them to wear it more often to see if the trend holds true. Plus, we're on a five game winning streak in them. And if we follow the rules I've outlined, we should be good to go, right? So...

We're done here?

Okay, one last thing. Take a step back from #ALLMAROONEVERYTHING, what is the uniform combination that historically gives us the GREATEST chance at victory? I'm talking about harnessing the greatest power from each of our uniform components—identifying the winningest helmet, winningest jersey and winningest pants.

Well then. Looks like if we field this all season, we'll be playoff bound:

1Those are actually the same thing, when you think about it
2Turns out press credentials are not a form of currency and are not accepted as payment by data visualization vendors or Harris Teeter
3Tableau Public is actually free with the caveat that your visuals are public, which is sort of ridiculously cool
4Seriously. That's difficult to fathom.
5I know they didn't wear those uniforms that game. I just hate their Stormtrooper uniforms because we lost to them.

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Comments

an unbelievable amount of passion was put into this post. FifthFuller, mama fuller would be proud. well done sir

I actually compiled the stats for an almost identical post last summer. I still have a .mat file with every pants/shirt/helmet combo we've worn since 2002 with the partial box score of each game. This is better than anything I could've written though, so I'm glad I held off.

Not the bagman VT deserves, but the bagman VT needs right now.

That's awesome, I'm a data guy, so this felt like a fun version of my job. I pulled together lots of numbers, so this won't be the only thing GobblerMetrics investigates. Inquiring minds want to know!

This is very nice stuff, FifFuller. What is your background/education/job? When you say you're a data guy, what do you mean?

I'm not like a statistician...I do data acquisition and integration, mostly. I'm the big dumb ox that carries the water for the glory boy statisticians to work their magic.

but we're still getting Foerensics right?

great job btw

"I promise you I will keep getting back up as long as you keep pushing forward." -Michael Brewer
"That kid you're talking to right there, I think he played his nuts off! And you can quote me on that shit!" -Bud Foster

Nice! I am an engineer by trade, but I enjoy data analysis and writing useless MatLab scripts, and this was a good opportunity to do both. It was also kind of a fun trip down memory lane, revisiting the triumphs and heart breaks, and remembering little factoids about games that I had forgotten. I'm looking forward to the next GobblerMetrics installment!

Not the bagman VT deserves, but the bagman VT needs right now.

memory Lane... I see what you did there.

in Fuller we trust

amazing... freaking amazing.

lol

and a little faster now.....

"I'm high on Juice and ready to stick it in!" Whit Babcock

I can actually live with a little (very little) orange. But it has to be subtle.

True Hokies STICK IT IN!!!

STICK IT IN Army of Virginia Tech

Fosterball

Amazing work, TheFifthFuller, very good job. My thoughts are that I'd like to see them used for special games, not for every game. Every game, it would just diminish the impact of them. Like HKX2 above, I say stick with SOME orange, but as long as it is relegated to trim around the VT on the helmet and around the numbers, that is plenty. Absolutely no orange jerseys or pants, though. Even if our winning % in orange jerseys is high, that's a no. I do like seeing more than just maroon/white. Orange trim around the numbers, we're good to go. Also, the only two helmets I like are the traditional maroon VT one, and the white version of it. Those go a LONG way in establishing our brand. White helmet on the road looks nice occasionally. Like the special road games, maybe. Otherwise, I'm like Whit - traditional is my preference most of the time. So, all maroon for special games - aka Miami/WVU/UVa/some bowl games - would be very cool. Again, though - very good job, with some surprising statistical results!

Of the jerseys we have now, the throwbacks with the shoulder stripes the orange look 100% better than the maroon ones. Though in all fairness I can't stand the shoulder stripes if we have to have stripes I would prefer them to be on the sleeves like Auburn's.

Some people spend their lifetime wondering if they made a difference, Marines don't have that problem

Kind of obligated to do Orange something jersey/helmet for Orange Effect games once a year. If the orange jersey was altered, because it looks awkward right now. #ALLMAROONEVERYTHING for big games *cough*Miami*coughcough* I agree I love the white helmets that aren't the Hokie tracks or HokieBird. I would like to see the helmet stripe become more permanent it really makes everything pop.

WHO WANTS TO START THE RUCKUS!?

Orange jerseys are hideous, as are orange helmets. Again, dilution of brand. Orange jerseys aren't Hokie, nor are orange helmets. They're just Nike buzz that does not build our brand. The Orange/Maroon/White Effect games are for the fans to wear those colors. I'm okay with orange stripes on helmets, jerseys, pants. My comments above were about doing a maroon everything uniform, that orange should be included but not a lot. I like orange trim on the uniforms, just not as the primary color.

Orange jerseys aren't Hokie, nor are orange helmets. They're just Nike buzz that does not build our brand.

Pardon my language, but bullshit.

Virginia Tech's colors are Orange and Maroon, not Maroon, white, and a teeny weeny little bit of Orange. To say that Orange jerseys aren't Hokie, nor are Orange helmets... well... its just wrong. Our colors are what they are, nobody else in D1 football has the same colors as us, and we should take pride in that, and not try to hide our true identity. As I have said numerous times, we're not Texas A&M, nor are we Mississippi State, so I don't understand why so many want us looking as close as possible to those schools. Orange is one of our primary colors, we should take pride in that fact, and design ourselves based on it, and if that means going with an orange jersey during the Orange Effect games and asking fans in the stands to wear Orange for that game, and to pull out orange basketball uniforms, well then so be it. They're all Hokie, because they are comprised of one of our two school colors. As much as some don't like to admit it, we are orange and maroon.

You can't tell me this doesn't look Virginia Tech...
http://www.brinkleys.org/users/tsl/Files/OE1.PNG

"Does it get any better than Thursday Night in Blacksburg?" - Reece Davis
"People who like to brag about how smart they are, are never as smart as they claim." - Colin Cowherd

Nice support for the Orange, which I wholeheartedly support. However - a little bit of history to provide perspective. Being a Hokie is about as old school as it gets. Our football uniforms(excepting Charlie Coffey) have always been predominately maroon, with orange trim. I do not want to see us mimic Miss St, as we did for a while under Dooley. We NEED orange trim. We don't need orange as the primary color, though. We're known for maroon, and orange. That's our football identity. Maroon, and orange. We're not Miami. We're not Oregon State. We're not Oklahoma State. We're not Texas. We're not Texas A&M. We're not Miss State. We need both, but we need maroon as the primary & orange as the trim. Not the opposite. I totally respect your desire for orange being present, and I agree with it. I just prefer maroon to be dominant, and orange secondary. Not absent - secondary. Not primary, secondary. That's all. Good back & forth!

The only thing that looks Virginia Tech about that uni is the helmet.

True Hokies STICK IT IN!!!

STICK IT IN Army of Virginia Tech

Fosterball

I like this for the Orange Effect Game, once a year.
Agree that maroon AND orange are our colors. This could be our 3rd uni, worn once a year.

I'm a man! I'm 41!
Hokie thru and thru.

Or not at all.

True Hokies STICK IT IN!!!

STICK IT IN Army of Virginia Tech

Fosterball

Once a year, no more, no less. You need variety in this day and age of college football unless you are Alabama, Auburn, Texas, USC, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, or Notre Dame, even though some of those have done variety, they don't need it. I like orange and it looks great on the basketball unis but the the color on the football jerseys is weird and needs to be adjusted. Once a year.

WHO WANTS TO START THE RUCKUS!?

Or not at all.

True Hokies STICK IT IN!!!

STICK IT IN Army of Virginia Tech

Fosterball

Make that orange more burnt and I'll think it looks like Virginia Tech.

VT Class of '12 (MSE), MVBone, Go Hokies!

If we examine the Official Virginia Tech Branding Statement we find that Maroon is the primary color and Burnt Orange is the accent color.

Also, the burnt orange hue is not the dark burnt orange. It's more of an orange that is whitened out a bit just enough burnt so it is not bright orange.

Danny caught that ball.

Friends don't let 5 star friends commit to UVA.

I have inside info. - Whit

All I saw was #ALLMAROONEVERYTHING and The Fifth Fuller and was like:

MRW I never get top comments and get two in one week

Well done!

"Sure, I've been called a xenophobe, but the truth is, I'm not. I honestly just feel that America is the best country and the other countries aren't as good. That used to be called patriotism." Kenny Powers

Leg for the Arty Party.

Fat guy dancing is captivating, I have been looking at the same clip for a few minutes and can't stop

Which wallet is yours?

The one that says "Bad Motherfucker"

I love how he dusts his shoulders off, which Jay-Z obviously appreciates, since he wrote a song about it.

"Never half-ass two things. Whole-ass one thing."
-Ron Swanson

"If you watch TV news you know less about the world than if you just drank gin straight from the bottle."
-Garrison Keillor

Not as captivating as the Katy Perry one, even though there's more bounce involved with Arty. Not a lot more, but still, more.

Nothing quite like a little data driven analysis.

Danny caught that ball.

Friends don't let 5 star friends commit to UVA.

I have inside info. - Whit

Legendary.

21st century QBs Undefeated vs UVA:
MV7, MV5, LT3, Tyrod Taylor, Sean Glennon, and Grant Noel. That's right, UVA. You couldn't beat Grant Noel.

Side note, what kind of data can we get/do we have access to?

I see FifthFuller is jumping on some numerical analysis, joelestra does a little here and there, but how much detail can we get with our data?

I've never seen data detailed enough to really care about looking at. It's mostly game-level detail with some play-level data of position on field, down and distance, and resulting yardage/scores. No mention of who is on the field, formation, play called, defensive alignment, etc etc.

Another FifthFuller column, with a reference to Gremlins? Well done sire, well done.

You had me at meat tornado.

This. Is. Epic.

manning

"And it is caught, it is caught for a touchdown"

I'm shocked that we've won 6 games wearing orange jerseys. We need Peyton to teach us how to win wearing orange (not that I'm advocating wearing orange, just winning while our eyes bleed).

Live for 32. Ut Prosim. Let's Go, Hokies.

It's the orange pant's that get us killed.

"Sure, I've been called a xenophobe, but the truth is, I'm not. I honestly just feel that America is the best country and the other countries aren't as good. That used to be called patriotism." Kenny Powers

Bravo, good sir! Excellent write up!

"You know when the Hokies say 'We are Virginia Tech' they're going to mean it."- Lee Corso

I'm sorry but I can't bring myself to upleg dictators.

True Hokies STICK IT IN!!!

STICK IT IN Army of Virginia Tech

Fosterball

Well done sir!
Hopefully we can have a full thread with clips like this from #ALLMAROONEVERYTHING

I'm a man! I'm 41!
Hokie thru and thru.

This was the highlight of the season for VT's running game

Which wallet is yours?

The one that says "Bad Motherfucker"

sadly, this is true...

I'm a man! I'm 41!
Hokie thru and thru.

But what a highlight to have!

WHO WANTS TO START THE RUCKUS!?

I guess this just goes to show... White Pants Win Games

I like me some AME myself, but lets be real, according to these metrics, we've worn white pants more often than anything else, and with the exception of wearing the orange helmet (damn you, Harbaugh) it has a better winning % in every single combination than any other pant. >80% chance of winning at home and >70% chance at winning on the road, with sample sizes nearly 4x as large as any other category. In fact, if you combine white pants with a maroon helmet, you're going to win far more games than you lose.

"Does it get any better than Thursday Night in Blacksburg?" - Reece Davis
"People who like to brag about how smart they are, are never as smart as they claim." - Colin Cowherd

I think the #ALLMAROONEVERYTHING is a little skewed since we wear them against more quality opponents. We wear white pants as part of our standard uniform a lot against lesser opponents all the time. I'd be interested to see what happens if we were to divide the margin of victory or winning percentage by the opponent's strength (from some ranking system).
Anyway, FifthFuller killed this. He has done some incredible statistical magic to find the most winning uniform.

"That move was slicker than a peeled onion in a bowl of snot." -Mike Burnop

We need to dive even deeper into this and find out what the metrics are for stripes on the pants (which I am a HUGE fan of) and the stripe on the helmet (that I neither like nor dislike to any degree). I'm a uniform guy, with my customs I'm always breaking down different uniform aspects and I really hate the fact that we don't wear the striped pants with the maroon tops. IMO, if you are going to have the stripes on the shoulders it's only fitting to have them on the pants as well. It seems like the only time they come out now is when we are wearing the all-white unis.

If they used this type of data in the Stats class I took, I would've made a much better grade.
Good stuff!

First, I found out Santa wasn't real. Then I found out babies weren't delivered by storks. And now I learn that #allmarooneverything doesn't actually make us more likely to win.

Bravo, thefifthfuller...once the shock wears off I'm sure we'll all be happy we've learned.

But I still want #allmarooneverything.

If we dole it out for special rivalry type games, then the emotional boost it gives the team & fans is worthwhile. If we do it every game, then it becomes nothing special. It should be something special. I can see it against Miami this year, against WVU at FedEx in 2017, that kind of thing. Once, twice a season, and the impact remains. BCSbowl/playoff games, yep. Not every time, but selectively - so people outside Hokie Nation know we're bringing out the heavy PR lumber for the game. I'd like the announcers to get excited when they see us run out in all maroon. Like they used to when 'Enter Sandman' kicked in.

uni

I don't have to take this abuse from you, I've got hundreds of people dying to abuse me.

I think whats being said is...

Wear this:

http://www.brinkleys.org/users/tsl/Files/IdealUni.png

Win this:
http://img.bleacherreport.net/img/images/photos/002/976/354/13d42f8b457b4625bfeaa10d8eeb1713_crop_exact.png?w=1500&h=1500&q=85

"Does it get any better than Thursday Night in Blacksburg?" - Reece Davis
"People who like to brag about how smart they are, are never as smart as they claim." - Colin Cowherd

That is how we got to a national title game...

"That move was slicker than a peeled onion in a bowl of snot." -Mike Burnop

This might not be far from Whit has in mind...And I'm not opposed to it either.
#FillTheTrophyCase

I'm a man! I'm 41!
Hokie thru and thru.

This home jersey has been a dream of mine for a very long time. Obviously maroon pants are also an option for both home and away

"Go Hokies!" - Thomas Jefferson
@HaydenDubya

.