Hokies vs. Hoos, 2015 Commonwealth Cup Preview

The Hokies are fresh off a terrific battle, and overtime loss, against North Carolina in which they seemed to leave every ounce of effort and energy on the field. Virginia Tech travels to Charlottesville with Dadi Nicolas suspended for the first half, Travon McMillian's tires low on tread, Brandon Facyson nursing a hip pointer, and Michael Brewer limited by an ankle injury. The mix of a disheartening loss, the looming coaching transition, and these personnel issues make the 5-6 Hokies vulnerable coming into a critical final week of the season, and Frank Beamer's Commonwealth Cup finale.

At the same time, there is nothing like a hated rival to bring a team into focus. The Hoos are not bowl eligible, and this is their Super Bowl. Despite poor seasons the last two years, UVA has given the Hokies fits despite the Hokies extending their decade of dominance over the Commonwealth Cup to eleven consecutive victories.

This edition of the Commonwealth Cup may have a different flavor. The Hoos' passing attack has improved significantly since David Watford's barren performance when Virginia Tech last visited Scott Stadium. Defensively, the Hoos have struggled against the pass, and don't have the dynamic front-four that brutalized Michael Brewer in the first half last season. On top of Frank Beamer's impending departure, it could also be Mike London's last game as UVA's head coach.

Running Backs Impacting the Passing Game

The strength of this Virginia team is their passing game. I have discussed offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild in the past. He has similarities to Scot Loeffler. His offense is incredibly multiple. You will rarely see the same play called twice in a half. There is a ton of movement and motion designed to create misdirection. Fairchild sometimes has the same infuriating tendency to go away from offensive plays that work, and from watching film, it seems the running game isn't a priority.

At the same time, Fairchild's offense presents significant matchup problems. The variety of offensive systems in the ACC Coastal annually presents a major challenge. Against UNC, Bud Foster's defense played a run-option oriented spread where the strain of being diligent in run support opened up routes down the seam for play-action. Against UVA, Foster's defense faces an offense that executes every kind of screen pass imaginable and uses running backs in every facet of the passing game.

Quarterback Matt Johns (No. 15, JR, 6-5, 210), is a good football player. He has a decent arm and mobility in the pocket to keep plays alive. Although he can move, Fairchild does not often use him on designed QB runs with the exception of an occasional draw. In the passing game, Johns has a decent arm. His favorite wide receiver connection is Canaan Severin (No. 9, SR, 6-2, 205). Severin is excellent at running off press coverage and then bending in front of the coverage on dig and out routes. He has been highly productive over the last two seasons. Opposite of Severin is Keeon Johnson (No. 85, JR, 6-3, 210), who is an enigma to me. On film, he looks like an NFL receiver with size, excellent hands, and solid route running ability. Yet, he only has 13 catches on the season. He still scares me as a big physical receiver who could present matchup problems for VT's corners, especially if Facyson is out of the lineup.

Virginia's running backs are the key to their passing attack. Fairchild gave touches to four different backs in the first half against Duke. The headliner is Taquan Mizzell (No. 4, JR, 5-10, 195). The much heralded former five-star recruit has not become a consistent 25 carry a game back for UVA (13.9 attempts per game, 4.17 yards per carry). However, Mizzell is an outstanding wide receiver. Fairchild will line Mizzell up as a tailback, a slot receiver, and out wide against corners, and Mizzell is a good enough route runner that he can beat corners in man coverage. On this play, Fairchild aligns Mizzell wide to the boundary. Duke responds by aligning their excellent free safety DeVon Edwards (No. 27) over Mizzell in man coverage. Johns throws a 50/50 deep ball to Mizzell, and Mizzell goes up and takes the ball away from Edwards.

Fairchild loves to use Mizzell in his jet sweep series. Mizzell will align as a flanker and motion across the face of the quarterback. A second back, often Fort Chiswell product Daniel Hamm (No. 22, SO, 5-10, 200) will be aligned next to Johns. Johns can hand off to Mizzell on the jet sweep. He can fake the jet sweep and hand off to Hamm on an inside zone, or Johns can fake both the sweep and the dive then screen out to Mizzell. Hamm is a hard-nosed runner between the tackles and had several nice gains against Duke when they over-reacted to the jet sweep fake. If defending the jet sweep, dive, and screen to Mizzell wasn't stressful enough, against Duke Fairchild faked all three and then screened back to the middle to Hamm.

On UVA's first offensive series against Duke, the Hoos called three screen passes. These screens help confuse the defense and slow down pass rushers. This is critically important against a defense like Virginia Tech's that frequently brings linebackers on blitzes. The screen game can create big plays in those situations, especially when the secondary is in man coverage.

Mizzell scored three touchdowns against Duke (2 rushing, 1 receiving). Yet, the most dynamic playmaker for UVA against the Blue Devils was Olamide Zaccheaus (No. 33, FR, 5-8, 190). He's listed on UVA's roster as a tailback, however he spent most of the game flanked out as a receiver. Zaccheaus hurt Duke in just about every way an offensive player can make a play.

Zaccheaus turned a corner inside-out on the same kind of out pattern that Severin and Johnson like to run on key third downs.

Virginia puts the passing strength away from Zaccheaus. Zaccheaus bends his route slowly to the inside like he isn't a primary receiver, and then breaks sharply to the sidelines against the deep cover 3 corner.

Zaccheaus also has deep speed to beat man coverage without safety help. Duke trailed by two touchdowns and UVA faced a third-and-eight late in the third quarter. Fairchild called a post-corner combination route with Zaccheaus running a post and Severin running the deep corner from the slot.

Duke brings a blitz and doesn't have deep safety help for the corner. Zaccheaus smokes the Duke corner on the post and Johns delivers a perfect strike.

With UVA not being bowl eligible, Fairchild and his offense opened up the playbook and used a variety of trick plays. Zaccheaus factored into those as well. In this clip, Zaccheaus catches a bubble screen and turns to throw a touchdown to tight end Evan Butts.

The weak link for UVA is their offensive line. Early in the season, the Hoos' o-line subjected Johns to a pounding against UCLA and Boise State. They allow 1.82 sacks per game (No. 54), and advanced stats paint a dismal picture. Johns is dangerous on broken plays. If Fairchild tries to emulate the success that offenses have had with quarterback leads and counter-leads, he will likely use the wildcat to run those plays.

UVA shows off their wildcat package. A fourth running back, Albert Reid (No. 5, JR, 5-9, 210) is in at wildcat quarterback. Johns moves out to receiver. Mizzell motions across and Reid runs an outside zone read.

UVA zones the play, indicating that Reid is reading the backside defensive end. I expect Fairchild will use this motion and pull a lineman and the H-Back away from the motion. Reid will counter then keep the ball and follow their blocks. I would bet a dollar Tech sees some variation of wildcat power used by the Hoos this week; even after the Hokies shut down Marquise Williams and the quarterback power against UNC.

The Boundary is the Key: Attacking the Hoos' Defense

Virginia defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta hasn't changed much of his system from last season. His down four doesn't stunt often. Instead, they look to get up field and disrupt the play by shooting gaps with their initial step. The defensive ends like to get up field and force the ball back into the middle. Penetration from the defensive tackles forces the offense to double team, which frees up the inside linebackers to make tackles.

The biggest difference in UVA's defense is personnel. The Hoo's don't have dynamic edge rushers like Eli Harold and Max Valles to disrupt plays. They no longer have ballhawking Anthony Harris at strong safety. As result, this group has to be much more sound with technique to stop the run.

The key player inside is middle linebacker Micah Kiser (No. 53, SO, 6-2, 240). Kiser is a very similar player to former Hokie tormentors Henry Coley and Boston College's Steven Daniels. Kiser doesn't have specific gap keys. Instead of reading blocks, Kiser keys on the running back movement and counts on the defensive ends to force tailbacks to cut to the inside. Tenuta doesn't want Kiser taking on blocks. As a free hitter, Kiser has outstanding instincts and flows to the football beautifully. He is an excellent tackler and leads the Hoos in both tackles and sacks (107, 6.5). Teunta will frequently slant his defensive line into slide pass protection, and then delay blitz Kiser away from the protection. Other times, he will use stunts, like this X-stunt, to occupy offensive linemen and then delay blitz Kiser so he is isolated on a running back.

Kiser is able to stay clean in run support because his defensive line does a stellar job of occupying blockers. For some time I have noted David Dean (No. 55, SR, 6-1, 290) is one of the more underappreciated defensive linemen in the ACC. He has excellent twitch, can get through the gap, and then have the strength to tie up double teams on the offense's side of the line of scrimmage. One-on-one, Dean uses tremendous leverage to make plays. Here, Duke runs a power off left tackle.

Duke tries to block their left guard down on Dean. Dean gets a yard of penetration, yet, instead of being driven inside, fights back across the block to make the tackle. This is a textbook example of how to beat down blocking. (Sidebar: If you rewatch the plays where the Hokies didn't defend the run well, you will notice VT's d-line wasn't good at fighting back into down blocks).

There are two areas I think Scot Loeffler will attack Tenuta's defense. Much like Bud Foster, Tenuta flips his secondary based on field and boundary concepts. Kiser and All-American free safety Quin Blanding (No. 3, SO, 6-2, 205) both play to the field side. They are the two key players that have to be accounted for on running and passing plays.

Against Duke, Tenuta lost the services of starting boundary linebacker Zach Bradshaw (No. 51, JR, 6-3, 235) due to injury. Instead of playing a backup, Tenuta moved starting strong safety Kelvin Rainey (No. 38, JR, 6-1, 195) to the boundary side linebacker position. Rainey is an active safety, however against stretch zone plays to the boundary he was often tasked to come up and force runs back to the inside. Behind him, Wilfred Wahee (No. 28, JR, 5-10, 200) manned the boundary safety spot. Outside on the boundary, corner Tim Harris (No. 5, JR, 6-2, 200) played a ton of soft off-man and cover 3 coverage.

Duke did a terrible job of exploiting runs to the boundary, in large part because David Cutcliffe attempted to zone stretch runs instead of using pin and pull techniques. On this play, Duke runs a quarterback outside zone stretch. The offensive line zone blocks to the left, and the Duke tailback is responsible for sealing the edge.

Virginia has a crash call on the boundary side. Boundary defensive end Trent Corney (No. 43, SR, 6-3, 255) crashes inside. Rainey gets up field to force/contain on the outside, and Wahee comes up to fill the alley. Harris is playing a deep third and isn't a factor in support. Rainey does an excellent job here against the H-Back and the tailback completely whiffs on Wahee.

This is a huge missed opportunity. By using a pin and pull outside zone, Rainey would find himself alone on the edge with Wyatt Teller likely pulling to kick him out. Ryan Malleck would free release to Wahee, and Kiser and Blanding would have to come a long way to make the tackle. To me, I see all kinds of opportunity to run at the boundary against this defense. Given the Hokies success on jet sweeps in 2013, and the outside zone plays with J.C. Coleman last season, I expect that Loeffler will likely attack the boundary in the running game this year. Bradshaw was on crutches during the Duke game, and no update on his injury status was provided at the weekly UVA press conference on Monday.

The soft man coverage to the boundary also presents an opportunity. Both Isaiah Ford and Cam Phillips have made some critical first down catches over the last couple of games by running stop routes on the boundary in front of soft coverage and then getting yards after the catch. Harris isn't a great tackler and gives significant cushion. On this play, Duke uses twins to the boundary and executes a slot-slant X-curl for a nice gain.

Wahee is in press man coverage against Duke's tight end aligned in the boundary slot. Blanding is playing a deep centerfield to the field side. Harris doesn't have leverage help deep, so he has to play soft coverage. Duke's tight end runs a hard slant right into Wahee to prevent Wahee from stepping into the short flat and picking off the curl. Duke's receiver curls underneath Harris' soft coverage for an easy completion. Harris then doesn't break down properly to make a secure tackle, and the Duke receiver passes by Harris for a first down.

Last season, Loeffler attacked Wahee with Bucky Hodges and Cam Phillips at every opportunity as the Hokies offense came alive down the stretch. Hodges is going to draw the attention of the defense, and he may be a tremendously effective decoy running similar routes on the boundary. This will free up Ford and Phillips outside against Harris. If Harris tries to jump the route, we saw against UNC how Brewer and Ford can punish corners with double moves. For the Hokies to win, expect some big plays to the boundary side, especially if the Hokies can connect on some completions in front of Harris early.

I am not sure what to expect on Saturday in terms of the outcome of this game. The Hoos looked loose and dynamic on offense as they scored on every possession but two against Duke during the first three quarters. Defensively Virginia gave up yardage, yet Duke couldn't sustain possessions and ultimately imploded without finishing long drives. The Hokies had a similar outcome against UNC. Too often they moved the football effectively before a drop, a misread, a penalty, or a busted protection kept points off the scoreboard. In a rivalry, with so much uncertainty around the program, emotions can lead to mistakes. Focus will be critical to extending the Hokies dominance of the Commonwealth Cup and the Beamer era by one more game.