Spinning off of from KingJames post here I wanted to look at Fuente's performance against expected wins based on the Vegas Spread. By expected wins, I mean that a 14 pt favorite is expected win 85.1% of the time, a 7 pt favorite 70.3% of the time, and so on. Data sources and code are at the bottom, but betting line data was only available back to 2013 so I started from there.
Comparing the coaches overall:
Coach | wins | losses | Expected Wins | win_perc | wins vs expectation |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Beamer 2013 - 2015 | 19.0 | 16.0 | 21.21 | 0.54 | -2.21 |
Fuente 2016-2019 | 32.0 | 17.0 | 31.17 | 0.65 | 0.83 |
Fuente actually exceeded Vegas expectations overall slightly in his first 4 years, but how does it look when we are favorites or dogs?
Comparing the coaches across types of games:
Coach | spread_group | wins | losses | Expected Wins | win_perc | wins vs expectation |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Beamer 2013 - 2015 | 1. 14+ Favorites | 4.0 | 2.0 | 5.72 | 0.67 | -1.72 |
Beamer 2013 - 2015 | 2. 7-14 Favorites | 5.0 | 2.0 | 5.43 | 0.71 | -0.43 |
Beamer 2013 - 2015 | 3. 0.5-6.5 Favorites | 5.0 | 8.0 | 7.84 | 0.38 | -2.84 |
Beamer 2013 - 2015 | 5. 0.5-6.5 Dogs | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.68 | 1.0 | 1.32 |
Beamer 2013 - 2015 | 6. 7-14 Dogs | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.34 | 0.6 | 1.66 |
Beamer 2013 - 2015 | 7. 14+ Dogs | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.19 | 0.0 | -0.19 |
Fuente 2016-2019 | 1. 14+ Favorites | 13.0 | 3.0 | 15.4 | 0.81 | -2.40 |
Fuente 2016-2019 | 2. 7-14 Favorites | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2.94 | 1.0 | 1.06 |
Fuente 2016-2019 | 3. 0.5-6.5 Favorites | 7.0 | 5.0 | 7.28 | 0.58 | -0.28 |
Fuente 2016-2019 | 5. 0.5-6.5 Dogs | 6.0 | 5.0 | 4.25 | 0.55 | 1.75 |
Fuente 2016-2019 | 6. 7-14 Dogs | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.25 | -0.10 |
Fuente 2016-2019 | 7. 14+ Dogs | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.21 | 0.5 | 0.79 |
Fuente lost 3 games in his first 4 seasons as 14+ favorites, but has done as well or better than expected in other games.
For some reference points, here is UVA:
spread_group | wins | losses | Expected Wins | win_perc | wins vs expectation |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. 14+ Favorites | 11.0 | 1.0 | 11.46 | 0.92 | -0.46000000000000085 |
2. 7-14 Favorites | 4.0 | 2.0 | 4.42 | 0.67 | -0.41999999999999993 |
3. 0.5-6.5 Favorites | 7.0 | 5.0 | 7.38 | 0.58 | -0.3799999999999999 |
5. 0.5-6.5 Dogs | 8.0 | 15.0 | 9.17 | 0.35 | -1.17 |
6. 7-14 Dogs | 5.0 | 13.0 | 4.12 | 0.28 | 0.8799999999999999 |
7. 14+ Dogs | 0.0 | 12.0 | 0.48 | 0.0 | -0.48 |
Clemson:
spread_group | wins | losses | Expected Wins | win_perc | wins vs expectation |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. 14+ Favorites | 48.0 | 2.0 | 48.91 | 0.96 | -0.9099999999999966 |
2. 7-14 Favorites | 14.0 | 0.0 | 10.99 | 1.0 | 3.01 |
3. 0.5-6.5 Favorites | 7.0 | 1.0 | 4.8 | 0.88 | 2.2 |
5. 0.5-6.5 Dogs | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.76 | 0.0 | -0.76 |
7. 14+ Dogs | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
7. 14+ Dogs | 0.0 | 12.0 | 0.48 | 0.0 | -0.48 |
Tennessee:
spread_group | wins | losses | Expected Wins | win_perc | wins vs expectation |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. 14+ Favorites | 21.0 | 2.0 | 22.18 | 0.91 | -1.1799999999999997 |
2. 7-14 Favorites | 8.0 | 2.0 | 7.63 | 0.8 | 0.3700000000000001 |
3. 0.5-6.5 Favorites | 4.0 | 5.0 | 5.27 | 0.44 | -1.2699999999999996 |
5. 0.5-6.5 Dogs | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
6. 7-14 Dogs | 2.0 | 9.0 | 2.47 | 0.18 | -0.4700000000000002 |
7. 14+ Dogs | 1.0 | 14.0 | 0.72 | 0.07 | 0.28 |
Source: collegefootballdata.com
Code for those interested: https://github.com/hokiespider/win_probability
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