Comparing Fuente vs. 2013-2015 Beamer in Expected Wins

By: HokieSpider on November 12, 2020, 4:15 AM | 13 comments

Spinning off of from KingJames post here I wanted to look at Fuente's performance against expected wins based on the Vegas Spread. By expected wins, I mean that a 14 pt favorite is expected win 85.1% of the time, a 7 pt favorite 70.3% of the time, and so on. Data sources and code are at the bottom, but betting line data was only available back to 2013 so I started from there.

Comparing the coaches overall:

Coach	wins	losses	Expected Wins	win_perc	wins vs expectation
Beamer 2013 - 2015	19.0	16.0	21.21	0.54	-2.21
Fuente 2016-2019	32.0	17.0	31.17	0.65	0.83

Fuente actually exceeded Vegas expectations overall slightly in his first 4 years, but how does it look when we are favorites or dogs?

Comparing the coaches across types of games:

Coach	spread_group	wins	losses	Expected Wins	win_perc	wins vs expectation
Beamer 2013 - 2015	1. 14+ Favorites	4.0	2.0	5.72	0.67	-1.72
Beamer 2013 - 2015	2. 7-14 Favorites	5.0	2.0	5.43	0.71	-0.43
Beamer 2013 - 2015	3. 0.5-6.5 Favorites	5.0	8.0	7.84	0.38	-2.84
Beamer 2013 - 2015	5. 0.5-6.5 Dogs	2.0	0.0	0.68	1.0	1.32
Beamer 2013 - 2015	6. 7-14 Dogs	3.0	2.0	1.34	0.6	1.66
Beamer 2013 - 2015	7. 14+ Dogs	0.0	2.0	0.19	0.0	-0.19
Fuente 2016-2019	1. 14+ Favorites	13.0	3.0	15.4	0.81	-2.40
Fuente 2016-2019	2. 7-14 Favorites	4.0	0.0	2.94	1.0	1.06
Fuente 2016-2019	3. 0.5-6.5 Favorites	7.0	5.0	7.28	0.58	-0.28
Fuente 2016-2019	5. 0.5-6.5 Dogs	6.0	5.0	4.25	0.55	1.75
Fuente 2016-2019	6. 7-14 Dogs	1.0	3.0	1.1	0.25	-0.10
Fuente 2016-2019	7. 14+ Dogs	1.0	1.0	0.21	0.5	0.79

Fuente lost 3 games in his first 4 seasons as 14+ favorites, but has done as well or better than expected in other games.

For some reference points, here is UVA:

spread_group	wins	losses	Expected Wins	win_perc	wins vs expectation
1. 14+ Favorites	11.0	1.0	11.46	0.92	-0.46000000000000085
2. 7-14 Favorites	4.0	2.0	4.42	0.67	-0.41999999999999993
3. 0.5-6.5 Favorites	7.0	5.0	7.38	0.58	-0.3799999999999999
5. 0.5-6.5 Dogs	8.0	15.0	9.17	0.35	-1.17
6. 7-14 Dogs	5.0	13.0	4.12	0.28	0.8799999999999999
7. 14+ Dogs	0.0	12.0	0.48	0.0	-0.48

Clemson:

spread_group	wins	losses	Expected Wins	win_perc	wins vs expectation
1. 14+ Favorites	48.0	2.0	48.91	0.96	-0.9099999999999966
2. 7-14 Favorites	14.0	0.0	10.99	1.0	3.01
3. 0.5-6.5 Favorites	7.0	1.0	4.8	0.88	2.2
5. 0.5-6.5 Dogs	0.0	2.0	0.76	0.0	-0.76
7. 14+ Dogs	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
7. 14+ Dogs	0.0	12.0	0.48	0.0	-0.48

Tennessee:

spread_group	wins	losses	Expected Wins	win_perc	wins vs expectation
1. 14+ Favorites	21.0	2.0	22.18	0.91	-1.1799999999999997
2. 7-14 Favorites	8.0	2.0	7.63	0.8	0.3700000000000001
3. 0.5-6.5 Favorites	4.0	5.0	5.27	0.44	-1.2699999999999996
5. 0.5-6.5 Dogs	6.0	9.0	6.0	0.4	0.0
6. 7-14 Dogs	2.0	9.0	2.47	0.18	-0.4700000000000002
7. 14+ Dogs	1.0	14.0	0.72	0.07	0.28