ACC bowls 2019

Based on news that just came out today, this is the last year of the Tier system in the ACC bowl bids, so I figured I would put it up, so it would be here when it's time to discuss it during the season.

1.) CFP (if ACC teams are selected) - Peach or Fiesta Bowl
2.) New Year's Six - Orange Bowl - ACC champ if not in CFP, or next highest ranked ACC team
2b.) New Year's Six - Cotton Bowl - the only at-large spot available
3.) Citrus Bowl - if the Big Ten plays in the Orange Bowl
4.) Camping World Bowl
5.) Tier 1 (equal selection) - Belk, Sun, Pinstripe, and Music City Bowls
6.) Tier 2: Military Bowl
7.) Tier 2: Independence Bowl
8.) Tier 2: Quick Lane Bowl
9.) Conditional: Gasparilla (formerly St. Petersburg)
10.) Conditional: Birmingham Bowl

The graphic still lists Gator or Music City, but this is the last year of the deal, and the Gator Bowl has already picked the ACC 3 times. Therefore, Music City must take an ACC team, and the Gator Bowl will select a Big Ten team.

Since the CFP semis are in two at-large bowls, that leaves only one at-large berth in the NY6, which would be in the Cotton Bowl vs. the highest ranked G5 team.

The Orange Bowl opponent will be the highest ranked teams among the SEC, Big Ten, or Notre Dame not already in a NY6 bowl. If that selection creates a rematch, the Orange Bowl can opt to take the next highest ranked team. Notre Dame cannot take the ACC's spot in the Orange Bowl.

Also, the ACC champ cannot be bumped from the Orange Bowl.

Gasparilla and Birmingham bids are only if the ACC still has teams left, and the bowls can fill from their primary conference partners.

DISCLAIMER: Forum topics may not have been written or edited by The Key Play staff.


Lets aim for the Citrus bowl

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Let's aim for the orange bowl

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Bumped for bowl eligibility.

What do you guys think of our chances for the Orange Bowl? If we make it to the ACC Championship game we will almost certainly be ranked. But if (hopefully not) we lose to Clemson, do you guys think we still are the next highest ranked ACC team?

Honestly, after the way we beat both Wake and GT, if we end up 9-4 there's almost no doubt in my mind that we'll be ranked ahead of Wake, UVA, Pitt, and anyone else that might challenge us for that spot.

That was kinda my thoughts as well. It just feels weird though for a team to lose in their conference championship game and still make it to a New Year's Six bowl. I'd be ecstatic though....

Of the three Orange Bowls since the CFP started that were not semifinals, none of them have featured the ACC champion, and two of them featured the loser of the ACCCG (GT 2014, Miami 2017). Ironically for us, the only one to not feature the ACCCG loser was the 2016 season when it was us.

Actually, both participants of the 2017 Orange Bowl lost their conference championship game, with the other team being Wisconsin.

Also, 2015 Iowa lost Big Ten CG but went to the Rose Bowl.

Not to mention 2016 Ohio State not even winning their division yet making the CFP.

That history is interesting....I don't remember the exact circumstances of why we didn't go to the OB in 2016 but it at least feels like this time around we are more likely to make it than to not. Beat Clemson and it won't matter!

It goes off rankings, and FSU was ranked higher. Both of us were 9-3 at the end of the regular season.

If the ACC champion is selected for the Playoffs, the highest non-playoff ACC team in the final CFP rankings is selected for the Orange Bowl instead.

In 2016, Clemson won the ACCCG and went to the CFP. Florida State was the next highest ACC team at #11 in the final CFP rankings, and therefore went to the Orange Bowl. Other ACC teams ranked in the CFP rankings were Louisville at #13, Virginia Tech at #22, and Pitt at #23.

If we owned wins over Wake, Pitt, and UVA, I can't imagine a reasonable justification for VT not getting the bid.

Ticket sales. If no ACC team is ranked in top 25 the bowl can take whatever team it wants with whatever criteria it wants. FSU will sell way more tickets and would have a really high chance of being chosen.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

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Yes the Orange Bowl can choose the team they want if no other team is ranked, but I'm pretty sure they have to choose from the best available teams. No way in hell they choose a 6-6 FSU just because they are FSU over a 9-4 VT. Maybe if they were within one win but that's just not happening. But I don't think it matters anyway because we will be ranked if we take care of business.

Yea the rule used to be there, but this year I can't find it listed out that they are not allowed to take teams to far away in the win column.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

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I think the rule is still there, if anything it would be removed next year. But the unranked Orange Bowl deal is something that was just revealed, and there's nothing out there except a few tweets.

I would imagine that even if there is no formal rule in place, the ACC and OB would still pick from the top teams just to keep the peace.

Isn't Notre LAME able to steal any acc bowl slot....I'd be willing to bet they steal the good bowl and we get sacked to play some 7-5 Midwest team.

I thought the Orange Bowl was guaranteed for an ACC team and Notre Dame is eligible to be an opponent unless it creates a rematch since Notre Dame is contractually obligated to play a certain number of ACC teams each year.

The Orange Bowl is the one ACC tie-in that Notre Dame can't take.

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If we don't get the Orange Bowl, I want the Belk Bowl. It is drivable for me and the last Belk Bowl was fun. Charlotte is a fun town. Me and LancerHokie will be there in a heartbeat if we get that bid.

I've lived in Charlotte since I left Blacksburg and a few weeks ago I was hoping we'd get bowl eligible and land in the Belk Bowl, but ACCCG is certainly an attainable goal at this point and there's no way we play 2 games in a row in Charlotte. If we don't make it as Coastal champs then I wouldn't mind Belk, but I'd rather win these next 2.

there's no way we play 2 games in a row in Charlotte

2016 enters the chat

"I have a PLAN. You just need to have a little goddamn faith, Whit. I just need. more. MONEY." - Justin van der Linde

They moved the ACCCG to Orlando that year because of the bathroom laws in North Carolina

And I think that kept us out of the Camping World Bowl that year.

I honestly think that if we make it to the ACCCG, from how this year has progressed, this Tech team will come to the game aiming to win, not just be glad they're on the same field as Clemson.

If we somehow were to win (long shot I know, but bear with me), what would be the bowl scenario? Would Clemson still go to the CFP?

Assuming LSU and Ohio State run the table, I would assume the Pac-12 winner gets in if they also run the table. I don't see Alabama getting in with a backup QB and not having played for their conference championship, see also, Penn State. Georgia is right out having lost the SEC champ game, as is Minnesota for having lost the Big Ten championship.

So to answer your question. A one loss Clemson probably gets in over a 2 loss UGA, a 1 loss Bama team that is off for the first week in December, and the bevy of blech further down the list.

Never Forget #1 Overall Seed UVA 54, #64 UMBC 74

There's still a chance that 12-1 Clemson could slide into the NY6 at-large spot if they don't make a semi-final. But since the semis are Peach and Fiesta, there's only one at-large spot left (against G5 in Cotton).

If we are 9-3 and beat Clemson in the ACC CG, they will have lost to the only ranked team they played this year. Clemson would not move on.

If we lose to Clemson, we go to the Orange Bowl. If we beat them, we go to the Orange Bowl. Who cares where they go?

Sometimes we live no particular way but our own

Since the ACC shares the bowl revenue, it would be nice to keep another team in the NY6 with the high payouts.

I'd think Clemson with a loss to the ACC Champ Hokies would still get a NY6 at large

Very likely, but with only 1 at-large spot this year, I wouldn't be so confident in putting money on that. If this was any other year in the cycle where there are 3 or 5 at-large spots, then it'd be a lock.

If we continue this pace of play, but lose a close one in the ACCCG, it'd be hard to imagine us getting looked over.

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Current Roanoke-Hokie
Go Hokies!

I think you might be getting our conversations mixed up here. We were talking about Clemson's NY6 chances at 12-1.

VT's only chance at a NY6 bowl is that Orange Bowl spot. There's too many teams and not enough spots for a 3 or 4 loss team to make NY6 at-large.

Current bowl eligible teams in the ACC:
Clemson 11-0
Notre Dame 8-2*
VT 7-3
Wake Forest 7-3
UVA 7-3
Pitt 7-3
Miami 6-4
FSU 6-5

One game away:
Louisville 5-4
BC 5-5

Gonna be hard to figure anything out until we break up that 7-3 logjam. At least we know that VT's possibilities are wide open at this point.

Plus, the logjam of SEC teams in the CFP rankings makes it difficult to project the Orange Bowl opponent, which will affect the Citrus Bowl availability.

EDIT to add Notre Dame into the list. They cannot take the ACC Orange Bowl slot, and they're probably too far down for a NY6 bid.


This is all I think of

Realistically, if we play clemson for the ACCG and lose we go to the Orange Bowl....if we beat an undefeated Clemson, we go to the Orange Bowl

My thoughts as well.

Win the next 2 games and we go to South Beach for the holidays. And realistically, the OB is going to want the best team in the conference outside of Clemson and I'm not sure anyone is playing better than us right now. And after nearly a decade away, you know we'd bring a large contingent if we got that invite.

"I have a PLAN. You just need to have a little goddamn faith, Whit. I just need. more. MONEY." - Justin van der Linde

If we're in the ACCCG then the most realistic win/loss records at the top of the ACC would be:

VT 9-3
Wake 9-3, 8-4, or 7-5
UVA 8-4 or 7-5
Pitt 8-4 or 7-5

Either VT stands alone (after Clemson) or we'd be tied or a game ahead of teams that we beat.

But...if we get in that scenario, I have a hard time seeing us not be ranked.

I agree with your outlook but if we win out and lose to Clemson and Wake wins out, we'd have 1 more loss than Wake. I'd be surprised to see wins against Duke and Miami push them back in the top 25, but it could open the possibility of the Orange Bowl picking between the 2 of us and taking the 3 loss team, though there's no way they bring more fans than us so I've got to think we're in a good position either way.

That scenario is basically what happened in 2016, except with FSU instead of Wake. Both teams ended the regular season 9-3, but we picked up the extra loss in the ACCCG. FSU ended up ranked higher than VT and went to the Orange Bowl.

The Orange Bowl only gets to pick the ACC representative if the champ is in the CFP and no one else is ranked.

Eh, that's a bit of a different situation. In 2016, FSU was #12 and we were #23 going into conference championship week. There was no way we were going to jump them, but we did move up a spot to #22 even with the loss.

In 2019, if we end up 9-3 we'll definitely be the 2nd-highest ranked ACC team, and a loss to CFP-bound Clemson likely won't change that.

I guess the similarity I was looking at was that by the end of the season, 9-3 and 9-4 teams get ranked. Thus, there will be no arbitrary selection from the Orange Bowl committee.

The fact that we're even having this discussion, "AD", is amazing and puts a big ole grin on my face.

Virginian by Birth, Hokie by Choice

I like to refer to it as "AW" but that's just cause i'm a petty bitch.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

For reference, here's the last time we played in the tier 1 or better bowls (using the year of the season, not the bowl game):
Orange Bowl - 2010
Citrus Bowl - never
Camping World Bowl - 2017
Belk - 2016
Sun - 2013
Pinstripe - never
Music City - 1998

The timing doesn't really matter for anything above tier 1, but that is taken into consideration for some of the tier 1 games - mostly the Sun Bowl, as the ACC likes to play hot potato with that one. After our 2013 appearance, we were safe for a few years because they wanted variety in the bowl, but that might have worn off by now.

Could be wrong but are we all forgetting about Notre dame and their over hyped fan base? Won't they most likely steal the orange bowl bid from acc if it ends up being us as the next best acc team?

I thought the Orange Bowl was guaranteed for an ACC team and Notre Dame is eligible to be an opponent unless it creates a rematch since Notre Dame is contractually obligated to play a certain number of ACC teams each year.

From how I understand it, Notre dame is eligible to take any acc bowl bid as long as the nd is within 1 loss of the acc team that would have been chosen.

Edited: my bad appears I am wrong Nd can't take acc orange bowl bid

Pinstripe Bowl would be pretty cool, but for ticket sales, I can see them picking Pitt or BC if eligible.

Mind you, I don't see us dropping that far, but we still gotta play Pitt, first.

TKPhi Damn Proud
BSME 2009

Just for an idea about how the New Year's Six might shake out . . .

Thanks to the ACC and likely G5 teams, the New Year's Six probably will not just be the teams ranked 1-12. So if you're a team looking for that at-large Cotton Bowl spot, you most likely need to be ranked in the top 10.

Notre Dame has been ranked 15 or 16 in all three CFP rankings. That's a lot of ground to cover to get the at-large spot. They're probably hoping for Ohio State to win out and push Penn State and Michigan further down the rankings. ND should be able to jump at least Michigan, if not both.

Of course ND's other option is the Orange Bowl, but they're at least fifth or sixth down on that list. While the rankings look SEC heavy at the top, at least two of those teams aren't going to be available for the Orange Bowl (thanks to CFP and Sugar). Then there's quite a few Big Ten teams (PSU, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan) with Florida in the middle. And a Big Ten team in the Orange Bowl means ACC in the Citrus Bowl.

Oregon and Utah are #6 and #7. There's a good chance that they play in the Pac-12 championship. In that case, I would say winner is in a semi-final and the loser is in the Rose Bowl. So it won't really matter how far down the loser falls in the rankings.

ACC Standings

Clemson 11-0
Notre Dame 9-2*
VT 8-3
UVA 8-3
WF 8-3
Louisville 7-4
Pitt 7-4
FSU 6-5
Miami 6-5

Waiting on next week:
Boston College 5-6 (plays Pitt)
UNC 5-6 (plays NC State)

Staying home:
NC State, Syracuse, and Duke at 4-7, GT at 3-8

Winner of VT/UVA gets 9 wins. Wake plays Syracuse, so likely getting to 9 wins. Basically, all I can figure out is that the teams most likely to get to the Citrus and/or Camping World Bowl are Notre Dame, VT, UVA, or Wake.

I think it's also safe to say that with that spread of win totals and VT's bowl history, we are staying in Tier 1 or higher.

I have to think the winner of the VT/UVA game is basically guaranteed to go to the Orange Bowl. I don't see Wake being able to get back into the rankings, and they were blown out in consecutive weeks vs VT and Clemson. Plus if no one else is ranked, there's no way the OB takes Wake if they've got VT as an option. Small school, won't travel well, and won't be a ratings draw.

Orange Bowl opponent is most likely going to be Georgia and they're gonna be PISSED!

*gobbles nervously*

They look like classic Hokie teams of late from the sounds of it. All Defense and no offense. Sounds like Fromm has regressed a bit this year, but it doesn't mean they'd be the most winnable game either.

They went to the Sugar as a consolation prize last year and didn't look like they cared to be there. Might be a great time to make a statement.

I wouldn't say that anyone is likely for the Orange Bowl at this point on the non-ACC side of the game.

First, we have to get through the SEC championship game. Assuming that LSU beats Georgia, that would drop Georgia down to 2 losses. Alabama could slide into the semis or the Sugar Bowl as the SEC replacement team.

On the Big Ten side of things, Minnesota could win their division and then probably lose to Ohio State in the title game. They would probably end up in the Rose Bowl in that case, as there aren't any other 1-loss teams left in the Big Ten.

Therefore, a 2-loss Georgia would be grouped with other 2-loss teams: Florida, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame. And that's assuming those teams don't drop another game.

There still seems to be some confusion still running around about the ACC's Orange Bowl slot, even though the rule is simple. ACC Champ goes to the Orange Bowl. The only exception is if the champ is in the CFP. Some other team can't bump the ACC champ out of the Orange Bowl.

New rankings out tonight, so let's break down the NY6 projections.

VT is ranked #24, so no more of this "Orange Bowl can take anyone", at least for now.

Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson are the top three. Georgia is #4, but they have to play LSU in the SEC championship. Alabama is sitting at #5.

Basically, however you want to project it, per this week's rankings, I think some combination of LSU, Georgia, and Alabama will take two semi spots and the Sugar Bowl spot. There is a chance that Utah (currently #6) could jump up if they clinch the Pac-12 South and then win the Pac-12 title.

As for the other side of the Orange Bowl, the list of SEC and Big Ten teams looks like this:

#1 OSU - semi final
#2 LSU - semi final
#4 Georgia - semi final or Sugar Bowl
#5 Alabama - semi final or Sugar Bowl
#8 Minnesota - Rose Bowl
#10 Penn State <-- currently team projected to Orange Bowl
#11 Florida
#12 Wisconsin
#13 Michigan
#15 Auburn
#16 Notre Dame
#17 Iowa

Due to the G5 and second ACC teams being so far back in the rankings, the lone at-large team has to be within the top 10. Right now, that's #9 Baylor.

Interesting to note, Notre Dame has been #15 or 16 for every single committee ranking. I don't think they're going to be jumping up too drastically unless there are a lot of upsets.

I figure that Utah would probably jump Bama with their "conference championship" boost, we've absolutely seen that before. For Bama to get in, I expect they need some help from either Utah or someone ahead of them.

I'm smelling upsets in the next 2 weeks, there is an absolute shot to see 3 sec teams in the CFP.

We have to take care of business. 😈🦃

TKPhi Damn Proud
BSME 2009

I was thinking about that last night, and honestly I wouldn't be mad. Temporary advantage by the SEC big enough to cause a national outcry, might be enough to get the 8-team playoff we've been waiting for with 5 auto-berths for the P5 conferences (I'm hopeful for a 6th for the highest-finishing G5 champ, but I doubt we'll see it).

I wouldn't mind some chaos. I just don't want to see Alabama in there. Other than that, I don't care how many teams each conference sends.

Biggest effect on the bowl line up will be if the Big Ten goes to the Orange Bowl.

Notre Dame is pretty much locked into the best non NY6 ACC bowl.

Current standings without Clemson.

Notre Dame 10-2 or 9-3
UVA 10-3 (Orange Bowl definite) or 9-4
WF 9-3 or 8-4
VT 8-4
Louisville 8-4 or 7-5
Pitt 8-4 or 7-5
FSU 7-5 or 6-6
Miami 7-5 or 6-6

If eligible:
Boston College 6-6
UNC 6-6

Realistically, even if UVA gets curbstomped by Clemson, I don't see any other team making it to the Orange Bowl. Why would the committee rank us above UVA after today's game?

Citrus Bowl is 1/1 at 1 PM. If that is given to the ACC (dependent on Big Ten being in Orange Bowl), it most likely would take Notre Dame. If ND wins tomorrow and gets to 10-2, the only team that could potentially get within 1 game to bump them out is Wake Forest, and I don't see that happening. I think the only way an ACC team gets here is if ND loses tomorrow, and the bowl likes the ACC's 9-3/8-4 pool. But also keep in mind that it's the same bowl organization at the Camping World Bowl, so we're also looking at how the other half of the matchup will shake out.

Camping World Bowl is 12/28 at noon (Saturday). They would take ND if the Citrus Bowl isn't an ACC option. VT could get selected here if ND goes Citrus.

The Tier 1 bowls are:
Pinstripe 12/27 (Friday) at 3:20 PM
Music City 12/30 (Monday) at 4 PM
Belk 12/31 (Tuesday) at noon.
Sun 12/31 (Tuesday) traditionally at 2 PM

Overall, not horrible times.

Everything I'm reading is saying Belk. I want Nashville or NYC

would love for it to be Camping World vs. Texas

They ask you how you are and you just have to say that you're fine when you're not really fine.

Texas might be too far down as CWB is #2 bowl after NY6 for the Big 12.

If Oklahoma can sneak into the CFP and Baylor goes to the Sugar Bowl, then the Alamo Bowl would likely take OK State. That would put Iowa State, K-State, and Texas in range for CWB.

Really bugs me that ND is in our mix

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Why would the committee rank us above UVA after today's game?

If UVA gets curbstomped by Clemson, neither of us will be ranked, and the question will become whether the Orange Bowl committee wants to sell more tickets and attract more viewers or whether they want to bring in the "most deserving" team. My money's on the former, meaning it's not terribly unlikely that we'll end up there regardless.

The same as 2016 when the Orange Bowl picked FSU over VT who had just lost by 1 TD to Clemson in the ACCCG.

Virginian by Birth, Hokie by Choice

His point stands that they can pick us over UVA if neither are ranked, but 2016 is a bad example because FSU was ranked higher and automatically their selection whether they wanted them more or not.

This is the guy that's a beat writer for NC State I think. He makes his predictions/projections based on info from the bowls themselves. This tweet below was done before today's game.

That gives a look at what the bowls are looking for in regards to the other teams. It wouldn't be a stretch to just swap us and uva in there, which projects us to the Music City Bowl.

In another tweet, he advises that VT is considered a 7-4 team for bowl selection purposes, which could affect who we can jump in the pecking order.

More from an article by Giglio a couple of weeks ago:

UNC and Virginia Tech are the two priorities for the Belk Bowl. The Tar Heels, with at least two more wins, would be their top choice. There's a chance, if the Heels finish 6-6, they could be squeezed out of the Tier I pool.

Confirmation on a twist to the bowl standings:

Virginia Tech is 6-3 but two of its wins are against Football Championship Subdivision (or Division I-AA) opponents (Furman and Rhode Island). The NCAA changed its rules to allow a Football Bowl Subdivision (or Division I-A) team to use one FCS win per year but not two.

So Virginia Tech has to win seven games to become bowl eligible. That also matters because the ACC has a "two-win" rule.

That means an 8-4 team can't be jumped by a 6-6 in the ACC process. But the ACC will treat Virginia Tech the same way the NCAA does and only count one of the FCS wins.

So if Virginia Tech finishes 8-4, for a example, the ACC would consider that as a 7-4 record for its selection purposes. A 7-win team can be jumped by a 6-win team in the selection process.

This means that if ND loses or Wake wins this weekend and either team ends at 9-3, VT couldn't jump them on the list. We could jump a 8-4 Wake.

But this also means that a 6-6 team could possibly jump us.

And a tweet from today to sum it all up:

Fireman found this tweet and put it in the other thread:

That puts us in the mix of the Orlando bowls that come above Tier 1.

So we need to hope the Orange Bowl picks a Big Ten team so ND goes to the Citrus. Then high likelihood the Camping World takes us over Wake or Louisville.

Although I would rather watch the Orange take Bama or Georgia and completely blow UVA off the field.

Orange Bowl doesn't pick, per se. They just get whatever team is ranked based on the predetermined criteria. And I don't know enough about the committee to know if they worry about bowl placement as they develop the rankings.

But we want a Big Ten team in the Orange Bowl just to maximize bowl revenue.

Clemson will be the only ranked ACC team so Orange can pick whoever they want unless the ACC decides to change that criteria in next week also.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

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You really think uva won't be ranked come Tuesday night?

They will likely be ranked 22-25 Tuesday, but what if Clemson completely blows them off the field next weekend and no other ACC team is ranked after championship weekend?

Maybe but then get blown out by Clemson and ranking will fall back out.

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They will be 24 or 25 and drop out after Clemson takes em behind the wood shed

Slightly erratic, mostly sane, always a Hokie.

I see this happening and if it does come true I think the orange bowl will have to still be UVA. The options if all teams are unranked are UVA, Wake and VT. I can't see VT going after losing to UVA. So that leaves Wake and UVA. I think the only way Wake gets in the Orange is if they win big this weekend and sneak into the end of season rankings and UVA drops out after their loss to Clemson.

I think uva gets ranked in the spot that we would have been in. Gotta figure that a 9-3 team will jump an idle 8-4 USC (#22), and that Cincy (#19) will drop at least a few spots after losing to Memphis.

That could easily get them to #22 in the next rankings. Even if they get taken to the woodshed by Clemson, I think it would be hard for any other team to jump into the rankings when they're not playing.

Looking back at the history of the CFP rankings, I only see two times where an unranked team jumped into the top 25 after championship weekend, and both times involved the unranked team beating a low ranked team in their conference title game. (Temple beat #24 Navy in 2016 and then became #24, while Boise did the same thing to #25 Fresno State in 2017.)

So, the teams that could theoretically get into the rankings would do so by beating teams at the lower end of the rankings, which wouldn't affect other teams in the rankings (Hawaii could upset #20 Boise, and Louisiana could beat #25 App State).

How many times during that span did a #22-25 team get blown out and stay in the top 25? Your sample size is probably pretty small there.

Last year we had #21 Northwestern losing to #6 Ohio State in the Big Ten title game 45-24, and they dropped one spot.

In 2016, Navy was #19 and lost 34-10 to unranked Temple, and dropped to #25. Temple moved into #24. Outside of that range, Florida was #15 and lost to #1 Alabama 54-16 and only dropped 2 spots.

In 2015, #20 USC lost to #7 Stanford 41-22 and dropped to #25. #22 Temple dropped two spots after losing to #19 Houston 24-13.

Northwestern: 21 points
Navy: 24 points
Florida: 38 points
USC: 19 points
Temple: 11 points

What I'm seeing here is that 49 points might be enough, but Clemson should just play it safe and win by 63.

More exciting teams jump more "deserving" teams all the time when rankings are not a factor and money is. Historically VT brings $$$ to bowl games. If neither VT nor UVA are ranked I am calling the Orange Bowl selecting VT.

Final standings at the end of Thanksgiving weekend:

Clemson 12-0
UVA 9-3

Notre Dame 10-2
WF 8-4
VT 8-4
Louisville 7-5
Pitt 7-5
FSU 6-6
Miami 6-6
BC 6-6
UNC 6-6

And keeping track of the Orange Bowl pool:

#1 OSU (W) - semi final
#2 LSU (W) - semi final
#4 Georgia (W) - semi final or Sugar Bowl
#5 Alabama (L) - semi final or Sugar Bowl
#8 Minnesota (L) - Rose Bowl
#10 Penn State (W) <-- currently team projected to Orange Bowl
#11 Florida (W)
#12 Wisconsin (W)
#13 Michigan (L)
#15 Auburn (W)
#16 Notre Dame (W)
#17 Iowa (W)

I have to admit, no one is wrong when they say the AAC would have a legitimate claim to P5 status if Clemson wasn't in the ACC.

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At this point, Clemson is definitely not going to the Orange Bowl. Either they win and get into the CFP, or they lose and uva would go to the OB as the ACC Champ.

Notre Dame is going to a bowl in Orlando (Citrus or Camping World). None of the ACC teams can jump them based on record.

If the Orange Bowl opponent is SEC, and the ACC doesn't get the Citrus Bowl, then ND goes to CWB. WF and VT are guaranteed Tier 1 bowls. None of the 6-6 teams can be selected for a tier 1 bowl before WF and VT are selected.

If the Orange Bowl opponent is Big Ten and the ACC gets the Citrus Bowl, that's where ND goes. CWB can then pick from WF, VT, Louisville, or Pitt. This scenario would guarantee a 6-6 team in a tier 1 bowl.

There are enough bowl eligible teams to fill all of the ACC's contracted bowl slots, plus one more. So we shouldn't be seeing an ACC team in the Birmingham Bowl. If we don't get the Citrus Bowl, we might get the Gasparilla Bowl.

Today was pretty good for our bowl positioning, all things considered. 🤔

VB born, class of '14

Well, with Alabama losing, there's a chance that they end up in the Orange Bowl vs. UVA.


Well he would be pissed at an orange and blue team.

I hope so. I want UVA to be blown off the field by Clemson and Bama back to back. Most of their repugnant fans I've talked to are either completely talking crap or just so oblivious as to what makes a good football team and their standing in the sport. They feel like they're just sooo elite academically and they won the basketball title that they're just doing great things in football. They're about to get smacked big time, and I'm going to enjoy every second of it.

Cup's coming back home next year. F those losers.

I'm in my 40's, I know a ton of Hoovers, and I have yet to have an intelligent football conversation with a single one. They end up blabbering on a bunch of nonsense about field hockey and lacrosse and can never seem to put together a coherent sentence about football.

Is coronavirus over yet?

Come to think of it, all the uva fans I know that can hold their own in a college football conversation didn't actually go to uva.

Had a conversation with a recent UVA grad tonight after I was spotted wearing my VT gear. She was like oh yeah gonna be brave and wear that. Said yeah we dominate you guys in football, 15-1 is a joke. Insinuated the Cup was coming back to blacksburg next year, to which she responded, "uh the Cup? What?" Didn't even know wth I was talking about. Was probably trying to process Tony Bennett...lock down not compute...

They are literally a one player team. Bryce Perkins is their Michael Vick without the supporting cast of the '99 team. This game turns out differently if Farley plays. Clemson is going to stomp them and the Orange Bowl is going to pass them up because there is no mystery in how that match up might go.

Longest of shots, but if Clemson makes them road kill and the OB takes VT, I will literally ROFL.

Once rankings don't matter it's about business. The story of VT going up against Bama for Foster's last game is far more interesting than Bryce Perkins vs. Bama. There will be zero unsold tickets if VT gets to the Orange Bowl. How many Hokies would miss Bud's last game AND a top tier bowl? The story is too good. It's marketing gold.

I hear ND would take the ACC's Orange Bowl bid and we can't jump them with our 7-5 official record. /s

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Let me repeat this for 100th time. ND CANNOT take the ACCs slot. Period.

Also, the ACC said that after we actually got the 7th win, our official record for determining bowl selection is our actual record, 8-4. The 7 win thing only mattered for eligibility not selection priority.

From what I understood from the tweets, had we finished 7-5 the ACC would have considered us 6-5 for the purposes of bowl selection, lumping us in with all the other barely-eligible teams, but since we reached 8-4 our record stands as-is. The 7th win was needed for eligibility, and the 8th was required to get full selection priority.

Wouldn't it be ironic of UVA still losing after winning?

Is coronavirus over yet?

It would be such poetic justice if UVA's reward for winning the Cup is a complete, nationally broadcast , beatdown by Clemson followed by the same against a top SEC team in the OB. Bama vs UVA in the OB would work quite nicely for that. Not sure if I'm the odd man out here, but I'd rather see UVA get Bama in the Orange, than us get Bama. Hoping we'll be more ready for that kind of a match up next year.

Watching them get beat down would be fun in OB. But watching them cry about being past over is also as fun.

But then what happens if they win their bowl and we lose ours?

Then at least we went to the Orange Bowl. Let them try to taunt us from cold, snowy NYC or whatever dreadful destination they ended up in.

I know we aren't allowed to tweet at 'cruits, but are we allowed to tweet at bowl games to get them to choose us?

Yes, you are. Please tweet @OrangeBowl Twitter stating you promise to be there nekked.

I don't think you can go wrong with tweeting at the Belk Bowl.

(Not saying that's a preference, just that they have a really entertaining twitter account.)

Gotta feel wake and Pitt both losing today will help us big time, not beating ND though hurts. Would absolutely love getting the orange bowl draw over UVA but unless Clemson hang 60 on them I don't see it happening unless UVA are unranked which I feel getting stomped by Clemson might not push them last 25

Directions from Blacksburg to whoville, go north till you smell it then go east until you step in it

Wake losing helped Notre Dame the most, as it left them at the top of the pecking order without any teams within a game to jump them. Of course, by guaranteeing ND goes to an Orlando bowl, it means that the Tier 1 bowls won't be fighting over who them. (Not that anyone would pick WF over ND anyway)

I don't think the Wake and Pitt outcomes really affected our bowl chances, as all three teams are within a game of each other either way.

The league will submit a list of eligible teams for the Tier I games to the bowl directors of the four games: Belk, Pinstripe, Music City and Sun. Since there are only two 8-win teams, all of the bowl-eligible teams are in the pool.

There is no order to the selections, rather geography is a primary factor as is avoiding return trips and repeats of regular-season matchups. The Music City is the fourth game this year (and not the Gator) since it was required to take three ACC teams over a six-year contract.

The Belk Bowl (Charlotte, Dec. 31) will likely take Virginia Tech and pair them with Kentucky (7-5) from the SEC. If the Hokies wind up in Orlando, the Tar Heels would finish the season against an SEC team in the same stadium where they opened the season with a win over an SEC team.

The Music City Bowl (Nashville, Dec. 30) also has an SEC opponent. It would avoid a regular-season rematch and likely take Louisville (7-5) to face Tennessee (7-5).

UNC (6-6), for its first bowl trip since 2016, will likely be the choice of the Pinstripe (New York, Dec. 27) against a Big Ten opponent.

That leaves the Sun (El Paso, Dec. 31) as the fallback for the Deacs, who had a clear shot at the Orange in the beginning of November but stumbled with injuries and three losses in their final four games. The Pac-12 is the opponent in the Sun.

My guess based on that article if ACC gets access to the Citrus Bowl:

Citrus - ND
Belk - UNC
Pinstripe - Pitt
Military - BC
Quick Lane - Miami

Other bowls would remain the same.

The Sun Bowl has always been an outlier. They tend to go after high profile matchups so the locals can buy tickets. It's not a commonly traveled to game. I suspect Miami or Pitt will be selected.

Side note, I don't know if Miami is even going to accept a bowl bid based on the U Twitter currently. Mind you, the U Twitter is calling for Manny Diaz to be fired.

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BSME 2009

Any program that declines a bowl bid after a disappointing finish to a disappointing season is dumb. There's no financial incentive to do so, as travel expenses should be covered by the conference, and the awarded extra practices and whatnot are invaluable for a team struggling to find answers for next year.

This article is a little dated, but it talks about how schools need assistance from donors and the conferences to pay for tickets and travel for student athletes.

Connecticut ended up almost $3 million short on ticket sales for the 2011 Fiesta Bowl. Even with its share of the payout, the school lost $1.8 million on the trip. Virginia Tech faced a similar difficulty at the 2009 Orange Bowl, when the Atlantic Coast Conference stepped in to pay off $1.6 million of a $2-million loss.

"By contract, we weren't even allowed to reduce the [ticket] prices," said Lisa Rudd, Virginia Tech's assistant athletic director for financial affairs. "They wouldn't let us sell to a group at half off."

Twitter me

The bowl ticket rules have changed because of incidents like that.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Pitt was in the Sun Bowl last year, so they won't be invited back in the interest of avoiding back-to-back trips.

Miami could only reach the Sun Bowl if both VT and Wake have already been placed in the Belk, Pinstripe, or Music City Bowls. And Wake is kind of looking like the hot potato of teams.

Virginia Tech against Kentucky in the Belk Bowl is intriguing. I don't know if VT ever played Kentucky before, asking for a friend, but I think that's an intriguing match up.

Not sure I want any part of UKs O right now. They ran for a Pitt like 12.9 ypc against Louisville. Since mid season when they put Lynn Bowden at QB, he's had 1135 yards in 7 games. 284 vs Louisville.

I still think it's intriguing.

We played KY in a home and home series in the 90s. (I think it was the 90s)

Interesting page. I like this one too...

It shows UK has a national championship, but 0 weeks as AP #1, which is just a reminder of how weird things were with determining national champions way back in the day

You might know, but for anyone else: That's because the AP poll is only one of several accepted selectors for the national championship before the modern era, back when there was no championship game.

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CBSSports has us in the Citrus Bowl with Bama.

That should be impossible unless the ACC decides to tweak the rules again.

But I also don't put a lot of stock into CBS's projections, because I don't feel like they have a good pulse even on the macro view of college football.

By my understanding that would require two things.

1. Penn State jumping Bama in the CFB rankings.
2. Citrus Bowl picking us over Notre Dame.

So basically, aint gonna happen.

3. ND agreeing to take $5.8m payout instead of $8.5m payout.

4. Citrus/Camping Bowl Committee deciding to put ND in the game with the lower ticket prices and worse television slot

3. ND agreeing to take $5.8m payout instead of $8.5m payout.

Doesn't matter. ND has already agreed to share in the ACC bowl revenue, so regardless of the individual bowl payout, they're receiving 1/15th of the ACC's bowl pool.

4. Citrus/Camping Bowl Committee deciding to put ND in the game with the lower ticket prices and worse television slot

TV slot is debatable. Camping World is the noon game on Saturday, leading into the semi-final games. Citrus is on January 1, so it would probably be leading into the Rose Bowl.

But I don't know if they have the flexibility to swap the "ACC" teams, since the pecking order clearly puts Citrus first, and there's no ACC team within one win of ND.

If the CFP rankings are similar to the AP Poll...

Top four are LSU, OSU, Clemson, and Georgia. Utah and Oklahoma are right behind them.

The Orange Bowl opponent list looks like Florida, Alabama, Wisconsin, Auburn, Penn State, ND, Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa.

If LSU and Georgia both end up in the CFP, then it looks like Florida to Sugar and Alabama to Orange. If only one of LSU or Georgia ends up in the CFP, then it's likely that the loser goes to Sugar and Florida goes to Orange. Either way, it's looking difficult to get a Big Ten opponent.

Good stuff, I was wondering about that. PSU is behind UF, Bama and Auburn. Probably a Wisky too after OSU beats them. Both would need to be above basically all those SEC schools to get OB

If Wisky beats OSU and OSU falls out of the playoffs, OSU would almost certainly be in the OB, but that's a pretty big longshot.

Alright, alright. If I have to take another trip to Disney World I'll accept us not getting the Belk Bowl in return.

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The ESPN predictions have come out.

Bonagura has us in the Music City Bowl vs. Kentucky.
Schlabach has us in Pinstripe vs. Michigan State.

They both have uvanus in the Orange Bowl, either against Alabama (B) or Florida (S). Each guy puts the other SEC team in the Cotton Bowl against Memphis.

Even ESPN's writers don't understand the bowl seeding structure.

Virginia also might have secured a spot in the Capital One Orange Bowl -- if it doesn't upset the heavily favored Tigers and knock them out of the CFP.

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I'm convinced bluehokie understands the ACC bowl structure better than anyone, even the league office.

The Orange and Maroon you see, that's fighting on to victory.

Current CFP projections.

LSU, OSU, Clemson are the top three. Either Georgia (4), Utah (5), or the Big 12 champ (6 OK or 7 Baylor) will be the fourth team.

The Orange Bowl list is Wisconsin, Florida, PSU, Auburn, Alabama, Michigan, Notre Dame, Iowa.

Currently, Rose Bowl projects as Wisconsin vs. Oregon. Sugar Bowl projects to Georgia or Florida vs. Big 12 championship loser.

Orange Bowl will have UVA face either Florida or Penn State. Cotton would have Memphis vs. PSU or Auburn (the highest ranked team left).

ACC still has a chance at the Citrus Bowl.

Looks like for the ACC to get the Citrus, at least one of the following has to happen (in order from what I consider most likely to least likely):
- Georgia beats LSU and both to make the playoffs, sending Florida to the Sugar and giving the Orange to PSU
- Wisconsin beats OSU and knocks them out of the playoffs, sending Wisky to the Rose and knocking OSU down to the Orange
- Penn State jumps Florida despite neither team playing

It would be interesting, but I think OSU gets in even with a loss to Wisky

I agree, which is why it's only the #2 most likely, behind Georgia scoring the upset and ahead of two teams changing order despite neither playing.

With UVA ranked #23, if they dont cover the spread (lose by more than 30), I could see them dropping out with SMU and Air Force sitting at 10-2 with good seasons. Seems like if it is PSU that they will still pick UVa to avoid a VT-PSU game before they play a couple games later in 2020. But would be interesting considering Tech would obviously sell more tickets than the Hoos to Miami, which is what Bowls are all about $$$.

The committee has rarely punished championship game losers so I think they would likely only drop to 24 with a bad loss. With a good showing, they could even move up 2 spots jumping USC and the AAC loser.

I also hate to say it but from the OB perspective UVa is the better selection. They have never been and have the more dynamic player. We lost our shot and really have no argument to make it over them. :/

Oh I'm not saying we deserve it over them, I'm just saying the bowl games main goal is to sell as many tickets as possible and if UVA isn't ranked, we would bring the larger fanbase because we care more about our football program. I agree that they probably won't drop out, but personally think we would give whatever Big Ten/SEC is in their a better game than UVA, but we lost our shot.

I have long thought it is stupid to punish teams for having played an extra game (i.e. if UVA loses and we get to go to the Orange Bowl). I get why people want to argue for it, but if we are being honest UVA deserves it this year.

Orange Bowl will have UVA face either Florida or Penn State.

From a football/competitive perspective, that would be one hell of a match up. I think UVA can go toe to toe with them, but if Florida or Penn State scheme right, they would have no problem bottling up Perkins.

ACC still has a chance at the Citrus Bowl.

I get the sneaky feeling VT is a lock for the Citrus Bowl, but I don't follow bowl selection as well as you do. Just going by gut feeling.

Notre Dame would get the Citrus Bowl, as they are two games ahead of all available ACC teams.

But . . . that would open up Camping World Bowl, which I think VT would have a good shot at.

So, I am trolling Twitter, and came across this:

I think we will see Saban teaching Harbaugh a thing or two, and maybe Michigan will finally get rid of the buffoon.

But . . . that would open up Camping World Bowl, which I think VT would have a good shot at.

Assuming this is true, who do you see VT being paired with?

Pecking order for the Big 12 goes NY6, Alamo, Camping World. I don't think the Big 12 has the one-game rule like the ACC, so the bowls could theoretically pick anyone they wanted from the conference.

Odds are good for Oklahoma and Baylor to both go to the NY6, especially if the winner gets into the semis.

After that, the four best teams are OK State and K-State at 8-4 and Texas and Iowa State at 7-5. Actually, that's the only four bowl eligible teams left in the Big 12.

Looking at recent history of the Alamo Bowl, the only non-ranked Big 12 team they've taken this decade was Texas in 2013 (Mack Brown's last game). I would bet on the Alamo Bowl taking either OK State (ranked team) or Texas (because it's Texas).

I don't see CWB wanting a rematch of 2017, so if they take VT, I don't see them taking OK State. If the Alamo Bowl already took OK State, I could see CWB taking Texas. If Alamo takes Texas, I honestly don't know who CWB would take.

Camping World Bowl would be our best likely destination, but Iowa State/Kansas State are not very exciting opponents. If Texas somehow could get that spot it would make it a little more enticing.

I think anyway it happens, LSU and OSU victories this weekend would give the SEC the Orange Bowl.

Wisconsin or Penn State is going to the Rose Bowl, depending on how far a 10-3 Wisconsin falls. But I think Georgia and Florida both stay ahead of both of those teams, which would put Florida in the Orange Bowl.

There's some chatter about App State possibly going to the Belk Bowl. It's largely contingent on the SEC not having enough teams to fill the lower bowl slots. It would also require the Sun Belt to adjust their policies.

After the NY6, the SEC has the Citrus Bowl with the #1 pick, and then six bowls that form their tier 1 - Outback, Gator, Music City, Texas, Belk, and Liberty. Then they have Birmingham and Independence in tier 2.

The SEC has 9 bowl eligible teams. At least two are going to the NY6. (One in semis, one in Sugar Bowl.) There could be another in the Orange Bowl. And there's still a decent chance that if the rankings shuffle enough, they could take the at-large spot in the Cotton Bowl. Heck, they could get two in the semis. That's as many as 5 teams in the NY6.

Most likely, LSU in the semis, Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. Florida in a NY6 bowl.

That leaves a list of Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, aTm, and Miss State. Citrus Bowl takes one of those (probably Alabama), and there's 5 teams left for the six Tier 1 bowls.

App State would be a tough matchup but would get more credit for beating a ranked 12-1 team than a 7-5/6-6 SEC team like Tenn, Kentucky, or Miss. St.

I've always respected App State's style of play and passion around the program to move from FCS to FBS and have lots of success.

On the flip side, there's still a large number of people who think App State is still FCS. Granted, those folks only know of App State from the 2007 Michigan game.

We would absolutely not get more credit from App state. I would rather beat the last place SEC team than a ranked mid major

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Which is a shame because App State is better than a handful of SEC teams.

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Folks, read this thread. It might mention VT and a three way.

Still have the second half of the Big Ten game and most of the second half of the ACC game, but projecting the bowls...

LSU, OSU, Clemson, Oklahoma in the semis.

Wisconsin vs. Oregon in Rose Bowl.
Georgia vs. Baylor in the Sugar Bowl.
uvanus vs. Florida in the Orange Bowl.

I think the at-large team in the Cotton Bowl depends on how far Utah drops. Candidates include Penn State, Utah, or Georgia (long shot).

Odds are slim for Big Ten to take the Orange Bowl. Georgia would need to drop below Penn State, which would put Florida in Sugar and PSU in Orange. But I don't think Georgia will drop below Florida due to head-to-head.

With the games over, I think the losers of the championship games (except the ACC) are going to be ranked 5-8. That leaves the rankings from 9 down the same (until you get to the G5 teams that will likely shift around).

Florida was 9 and Penn State 10, so Florida would go Orange.

From what I can tell, the Belk Bowl pays out roughly as much as the entire Sun Belt bowl lineup combined. I find it hard to believe they would turn down that much money, even if they have to give up a fraction of it as some sort of buyout or appeasement to their current bowl partners.

I just want to know if the Orange bowl is still going to select UVA now that they got blasted by Clemson

Removing features to get people to sign up for your service is something EA would would do.

It's still the easiest choice.

So, probably.

Kind of hard for them to pass on UVA. VT has no signature wins. Lost to UVA. And UVA has not been to a big bowl in a long long long long long........time. If VT had beaten ND they would have be the selection.

Kind of hard for them to pass on UVA VT. VT UVA has no signature wins. And UVA VT has not been to a big bowl in a long long long long long........time. If VT UVA had beaten ND they would have be the selection.

You put those words together, those are my favorite words, Popeyes and bahama
- Mike Burnup

Kind of hard for them to pass on UVA. VT has no signature wins. Lost to UVA. And UVA has not been to a big bowl in a long long long long long........time. If VT had beaten ND UVA they would have be the selection.


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Cow bells and turkey calls. A match made in rural America.

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Please for the love of God just ban the cow bells from the stadium

1 LSU vs 4 Oklahoma in Peach Bowl

2 Ohio State vs 3 Clemson in Fiesta Bowl

Hopefully it's a better game than the 2016 Fiesta Bowl.

And rest of the top 25 (and NY6 bowls) won't be announced until 3pm. Still time to see some changes.

I wonder how much of that is actually needing time to decide things, and how much of that is just dragging it out for TV.

IIRC, the first few years of the CFP, they announced all of the NY6 between 12:30 and 1 and got it over in time for the NFL games to kick off.

I could see it either way, but if you're really "dragging it out for TV" you'd announce the matchups that fewer people care about first and then get to the playoff pairings last, like they used to.

3 ET according to ESPN on the Top 4 show.

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A) Your sig is particularly relevant

B) ACCCG record for most points scored and largest margin of victory. Sucks to be Hoo right about now.

Rose is 6 Oregon vs. 8 Wisconsin
Sugar is 5 Georgia vs. 7 Baylor

Note that Wisconsin's ranking did not change after losing the Big Ten title game.

Neither did Baylor's, and Georgia only dropped one spot despite getting blown out.

Orange Bowl
9 Florida vs 24 UVA

No Citrus Bowl for ACC.

Cotton Bowl
17 Memphis vs 10 Penn State


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Proud Hokie since 2004.


Reach for Excellence!

VT Football: It'll get after ya!

Proud Hokie since 2004.

Here's how the final rankings were different from the penultimate rankings:

#1-2 flipped (LSU/OSU)
#3 stayed the same (Clemson)
Oklahoma jumped from #6 to #4
Georgia slipped from #4 to #5
Oregon jumped from #13 to #6
#7-10 stayed the same (Baylor, Wisconsin, Florida, PSU)
Utah fell from #5 to #11
Auburn and Alabama slipped back a spot each (11/12 to 12/13)
#14-19 stayed the same (Michigan, ND, Iowa, Memphis, Minnesota, Boise)
#20-21 flipped (App St/Cincy)
USC stayed at #22
#23-24 flipped (Navy/uvanus)
#25 Ok State stayed the same.

To bring this full circle, the ACC bowl selections (most of these are from the ACC twitter account)

1.) Fiesta Bowl - Clemson vs. Ohio State
2.) Orange Bowl - uvanus vs. Florida
3.) Citrus Bowl - not available to ACC due to Florida in Orange Bowl
4.) Camping World Bowl - Notre Dame vs. Iowa State
5a.) Tier 1: Belk Bowl - Virginia Tech vs. Kentucky
5b.) Tier 1: Sun Bowl - Florida State vs. Arizona State
5c.) Tier 1: Pinstripe Bowl - Wake Forest vs. Michigan State
5d.) Tier 1: Music City Bowl - Louisville vs. Mississippi State
6.) Tier 2: Military Bowl - UNC vs. Temple
7.) Tier 2: Independence Bowl - Miami vs. La Tech
8.) Tier 2: Quick Lane Bowl - Pitt vs. Eastern Michigan
9.) Conditional: Gasparilla - not used by ACC
10.) Conditional: Birmingham Bowl - Boston College vs. Cincinnati

That's 10 ACC Bowls (not counting Notre Dame), with 6 being against P5 and 4 against G5.

Of those against G5, the Independence and Quick Lane were supposed to be against P5, but those conferences didn't have enough teams to fill the slots that far down on their list. The ACC takes the SEC slot for the Birmingham Bowl against G5.

ACC rocking with the insanely easy bowl slate.

Cincinnati wins 10 games for the second straight year and will be playing a 6-6 team in the bowl for the second straight year.

I expect for UVA, FSU, and BC to lose. Clemson could be a toss up.

For comparison (since it was brought up elsewhere for previous years), the SEC has 9 bowl eligible teams (Mizzou would have been 10), and all 9 of their bowls are against P5.

If they didn't have the third NY6 team, they would have gone to the Liberty Bowl (against K-State), and if Mizzou wasn't sanctioned, the SEC would have had a team in the Birmingham (against Cincy) or Independence Bowl (against Miami).