Virginia Tech SP+ Rating over the past 50 years

You can use this site to create visualizations for any team or piece of the SP+ rating.

Here's our offensive rating over time - no surprise to see we peak during the MV7 years:

And our defensive rating over time:

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Rather have a pie chart as the visual.

CornFu SP looks a lot like Stiney SP overall.

The team is still in transition.

Until 2036

That 1970s'll get after ya!

How could the 1970s D be better than some years where we were #1 defense?

We put the K in Kwality

I believe offense the higher the rating the better the offense and with defense it's the opposite.

Sorry. I had my phone upside down 😉

We put the K in Kwality

Yeah took me a second as well but just have to look at that 07 defense, which I think was our best ever.

So our overall rating is higher in 2019 than 2018... that checks out. But the Defensive and Offensive ratings were higher in 2018???

The defense rating is better this year.

Offense: bigger number good
Defense: smaller number good

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look at that, it's like college football teams are kinda cyclical after all

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Our overal trend is not a cycle. We got better between 1970-2000. Plateaued near the near top between 2000-2010. Have regressed from 2010-2019.

If I drew a line of best fit through all those points, it would be a parabola

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we got better and then we got worse. will it be a cycle if the current iteration improves on the field and we get better? just looks like one half-period of a sine curve tbh

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

There are a couple of constraints. Success and failure are both bounded, they can't go infinitely in either direction, so the trend is naturally moderated by this. The overall trend is over the course of 50 years, so we lack sufficient data one way or the other to say if it repeats itself without a couple hundred years worth of data. But, we can say that success usually perpetuates itself. The more successful you are, the bigger following you have, the more resources you have, the more you can invest in your program, the better players you get to play for you, the better coaches you can afford, thus making yourself more successful.

I'm worried the college football landscape is more like monopoly. In the phase of the game where you're supposed to invest like crazy, we were satisfied with our house on our property because we were making money. Unfortunately due to disparity in things like location, historic prestige, hundred million dollar tv contracts, and having a staff prolific in recruiting, some of these teams have built hotels on park place. We're in the end game and the big programs are now bleeding all the other programs dry.

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Lol fair

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For a minute there this looked like the stock market trends since 1970... 🙃

Let's Go


It's interesting that there was a league-wide paradigm shift between 2003-2006 where the offenses dropped off and the defenses got better

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