Coronavirus Discussion Thread XVI

From VTGuitarman's previous thread:

The current situation facing all of us is unprecedented. While TKP is generally not a place to discuss "breaking news" or emotionally charged topics, obviously the coronavirus pandemic affects us all. We recognize that TKP is a place many of us turn to for social interaction in these trying times, and discussing the coronavirus can be cathartic for many of us. We hope that we can continue to come together as Hokies to weather this storm.

That said, the explosion of comments in recent discussions has veered from useful to pointless and argumentative. Going forward, only Joe and the moderator team will post new "general discussion" threads on this topic. Others will be deleted. Moderators will lock threads as needed if discussion becomes destructive.

We invite you to use this space to discuss important information related to the coronavirus pandemic, like important advisories, closings, cancelations, and impacts on daily life. We are lucky that our community has many subject matter experts in health, science, public safety, public affairs, and local government, among others. Please continue to share your knowledge!

As always, the Community Guidelines will be enforced by the moderators as best we can. At this point, repeat offenders who continue pointless bickering and whose posts continually incite arguments will be banned, at least temporarily. Doing so is in the interest of keeping TKP a strong and positive community.

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Comments

everyone pls

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

You start a thread with pls...

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

What happened?

Oh never mind. I probably don't want to know.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

There were 999 reasons to close that thread.

But a bitch ain't one

edit: just to be clear, my comment was not directed at anyone, or any comment from the other thread, it was just a play on the "999 reasons", using a popular song from 2004 by the artist in the gif

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

in the words of Ted Yoho...

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

So let the sense, and the nonsense, begin!

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Stay home when you can, wear a mask when around other people. It's not hard to beat this, so let's all buckle down and get it done. Better to be safe than sorry.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

Not trying to bring any of the shit over from the other thread, but re: Herman Cain, there were something like 40 days between testing positive and his death. Worth keeping in mind when we're looking at current positive case trends.

Not the bagman VT deserves, but the bagman VT needs right now.

Which other one? We got a few spiraling right now

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

(っ◔◑◔)っ β™₯ everyone pls β™₯

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

(β•― Ν‘ΰ² β€―ΝœΚ– Ν‘ΰ² )╯┻━┻

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

this made me legitimately laugh for the first time in a while, so thanks for that

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

β”¬β”€β”¬γƒŽ( ΒΊ _ ΒΊγƒŽ)

Put it back.

To expand on this, I looked at the data for confirmed cases and deaths (USA) and found inflection points for both curves. This should probably be taken with a grain of salt since different parts of the country are experiencing very different trend behaviors, and it's still not clear to me how much positive tests are an indicator of spread vs. testing capacity, but for what it's worth, the inflection point for the deaths curve is lagging the inflection point of the positive cases curve by ~30 days.

Not the bagman VT deserves, but the bagman VT needs right now.

Abandon hope all ye who enter here

I had no idea you knew my ex.

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

Or that they knew my ex-fiance. Thankfully she turned into "The Witch" after I asked her to marry me, which give me the chance to call off the wedding and escape. She could have waited until after we had gotten married and then I would be some combination of (1) divorced, (2) dead or (3) in jail.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

Has anyone had a friend that was engaged to an absolute piece of crap and you just hoped every day that some bombshell dropped to cause them to hate each other because you know that the marriage will be an absolute disaster causing two lives to ruin and causing you never to see said friend again?

My first wedding...my good friend and mother of the flower girl is in line throwing rice as we're leaving the reception. As I walk by she looks me in the eye and says "goo-oood luuu-uuck", with that "you're really going to need it" tone in her voice and look on her face. She was right; lasted 11 months. Fortunately we had no money and no kids...just had to figure out who got the cat (me). Easiest/best breakup ever.

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

If we ever get to meet in person, we'll have to swap stories.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

I love that show.

meet in person

What is that?

I've heard the old folks talk about. Apparently, they used to see each other with no FaceTime, Zoom, etc. In fact, no tablets, phones, or computers were involved at all. This was called "in-person" or "face-to-face." They would even get closer than 6ft. Sometimes, they would touch hands in an ancient ritual called "shaking hands" or even embrace one another in something called a "hug." It was...barbaric.

*Checks DOB on license.

I thought I read all of that in some old history book!

Oh, no!!!

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

We're getting closer and closer to being Solarians, aren't we? Now if only we could evolve those power transducer lobes....

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

I volunteer as a career mentor. Will tell the "kids" how in the old days of the 20th century, when you applied for a job, you would download your resume onto this material called paper. There was a tool called ink that would apply your resume to the paper. You would then put this paper into an envelope, zip it up, and send it to a place where the envelope would be opened by this thing called a person who would read it ... well, sometimes they would just read the first 2 sentences.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

So, this is neither here nor there. But I accidentally fatfingered when attempting to click this thread and went to GGC's profile where I found this little nugget:

Most Memorable Moment
THESE PEOPLE ARE LOSING THEIR MINDS

GGC, I didn't realize that moderating was your most memorable moment./S

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

it was a prophetic reference to me, Chris, VTGM, and Joe

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Is this the longest recurring thread now? Not counting rolling topics like Recruiting and Fishing?

Everything from thread one published into a nice Novel one day is destined to be a best seller.

ESPN. The coverage is excellent, you'd be surprised at how much you can pick up.

I feel like we need to get to XIX in order for things to balance properly

Impressive results from J&J's vaccine candidate published in Nature. Challenge trial in rhesus macaques with arguably the most impressive results of any vaccine candidate. Effectively sterilizing immunity from a single dose. This one is a bit behind the front runners, with phase III expected to start in September.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2607-z

Hypothetically, if I say vaccine pls, will that jinx it?

Alternate theory, it COULD vaccinate the board against 'rona meltdowns. Big risk/reward situation here.

This testing wasn't conducted at Colorado State and funded by their football program was it?

I like fluffy kittens.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Oh man. I mean this is okay, but dogs/puppies are so much better!

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

CDC Director Redfield testifying on Capital Hill this morning about the pandemic...

"It is in the public health interest of K-12 students to get these schools back open for face-to-face learning."

"We need to get on with it."

Leonard. Duh.

You left out A LOT of what he said

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

You're right. He also said this...

"I want it done smartly but I think we have to be honest that the public health and interest of the students in the station right now is to get a quality education face-to-face learning and when you do get on with it."

and this...

"The isolation that these adolescents are feeling, that now is associated with increased as you mentioned, increased drug overdose, that's and now increase suicide."

Leonard. Duh.

Dude, no one is arguing that keeping schools virtual is better for kids well being than having schools opening. What they're saying is that many school systems are woefully unprepared to open up safely during a pandemic. That requires planning, but most importantly it requires funding, something many school systems are woefully short on. You and folks like you just beating the drums of "open open open" seem to be having a really difficult time understanding this.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

Very well written and salient point about the real
Issue of school reopening for so many places.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

I'm not having a difficult time understanding anything. I'm just relaying the Director of the CDC's "expert opinion" that the benefit of in-person school for children far outweighs the risk of stay at home school as long as it's done safely, which looks very doable given the data on children and transmission.

Do we not give the director of the CDC's opinion any weight on this?

Leonard. Duh.

I think we give him lots of weight, but I recall from earlier threads, you stating that public policy needs to be a mix of inputs from different fields. Given that it would be better for kids to be in school, and given that schools need additional funding to safely achieve that, we either need to a) generate revenue for the schools that enables them to open safely, b) postpone opening until the environmental safety concerns subside. Just calling for opening without a funded plan is how you get Florida.

Get Angry, Bud!

very doable given the data on children and transmission that I have chosen to accept as unalterable truths while ignoring the evidence that opposes my viewpoint

There, fixed that statement for you.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

Wow.

Leonard. Duh.

Dude, there's 15 threads worth of this exact thing happening.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Double wow!

"Hey Bud, you wont have to hold the opponent to 17 points anymore."

really?

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

given the data on children and transmission

You keep falling back on that, but more and more the data points to limited transmission is only for elementary school aged children. The data says that kids over age 10 transmit it just as much as adults. The fact that you continually ignore this tells me that you don't actually care about the data. You only care about data that supports your preconceived viewpoint.

Are you arguing that I'm taking Dr. Redfield out of context, and he's actually recommending that schools remain all virtual?

Leonard. Duh.

Nope not at all, just pointing out that the first two quotes you shared made it sound like Redfield thinks schools should open today full go. Which, as we both know, is not what he said.

I'm actually really glad you support Redfield's opinions on the virus. Redfield has also said that if everyone would wear a mask, we could get under control in 4-8 weeks. So do you part, get out there and start encouraging everyone to wear the damn mask.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Everybody has seen that picture of students in a Georgia school packed in a hallway and like 3 of them are wearing masks, right?

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

SO, uh, how does everyone think COVID will affect our series with Liberty moving forward?

[ducks]

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Hahahahaha YES.

10/10

keeping the theme above...

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

πŸ‘

coronavirus thread. this comment is negative value.

signal to noise, consider the source, so on and so forth

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Β―\_(ツ)_/Β―

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

To Joe and the mods...I'd pour ya a large one if I could.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Hey, quick question if anyone knows. As mentioned in a prior thread, my wife was recently furloughed. She was still getting paid for some time off that was banked but is now going to be able to claim unemployment. She is in psychometrics (basically applied statistics) and thinks her chances of getting called back or hired at another place is much better if she moves into program management rather than staying in stats. There are courses she has to take for it. You have to be actively looking for work to collect. Is engaging in that type of job training considered the same thing as "looking for work"? My guess was no and that she needs to be looking and keep a log of her job search, but we cannot find a straight answer on the NJ website.

Second question is are these program management courses worth it? She was saying they could run over $1,000, which is not a big deal, but if people think they are worthless, then why spend the money?

EDIT: the program she was looking at through Cornell is several thousand dollars.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

There are never enough PM out there. Weather direct hire or subcontract. I'd do it.

"Hey Bud, you wont have to hold the opponent to 17 points anymore."

Thank you Musky.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

My SO has her PMP certification and took a training course prior to taking the exam. The trainers said that there is over a 90% pass rate for those who take the course. I don't think her course was several thousand dollars though.

And I've taken other (non-PM) certification trainings and those helped immensely with passing the exams. I'd say it's worth it.

Thank you lepakkkkk.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

I second this. You can take the PMP exam. But to get actual certification, you need project management experience. When I was taking the class, they were pretty liberal with what counted as project management experience, as long as you frame it the right way. Courses run from probably $600 or so (maybe more, I took mine a long time ago) up to close to $2000, plus like $400 for the test ($555 for non members of PMI). Here's a link to Rita Mulcahy's test prep. When I was taking it, she was generally recognized as the best instruction/prep for the exam.

If she doesn't have the experience, there's the CAPM certification which is cheaper to get.

If you need any other advice, I did PM for a long time and my wife still does - be happy to help!

Our school system will be proceeding with two days per week in person and three days virtual. We are looking like we will have fall youth baseball and spring youth football. Overall, I am not unhappy with how we will be moving forward this fall. However, I think we could have went with 4 long days for k-5 and used the virtual as a fall back if things started backsliding. The good news is that the kids will be able to socialize some while implementing some common sense practices. The bad news is our county is still not equipped for the technology required to adequately and fairly do a virtual curriculum.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

Informed that our daughter's school (Catholic school in southern NJ) is planning to open full time in-person. I was actually expecting it to be 2 or 3 days in person. Not too many details yet, but they are supposed to come in a week or so.

Those who do not want to go in-person will have the option of remote learning instead with broadcasts from the classrooms.

Supposedly they will have some kind of clear tri-fold shield around the desks. No pictures were included, but sounds like a big U shaped thing that covers 3 sides with the back open for the seat to slide into and out of as you get up.

Kids will not have to wear masks as long as they are at their desks within the shields. Have to wear them everywhere else.

Band practice will remain remote for the foreseeable future.

TBD if they have lunchroom open or recess or aftercare or anything like that. Rumors that the kids will stay in their homeroom for most or all classes and that the teachers will rotate but not known yet.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

A Georgia summer camp where covid spread among campers and councilors. Notably, of the 100 6-10 year-olds, 51 tested positive.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6931e1.htm?s_cid=mm6931e1_w

A total of 597 Georgia residents attended camp A. Median camper age was 12 years (range = 6–19 years), and 53% (182 of 346) were female. The median age of staff members and trainees was 17 years (range = 14–59 years), and 59% (148 of 251) were female. Test results were available for 344 (58%) attendees; among these, 260 (76%) were positive.

Note: I am not an expert in this field at all. Feel free to point out bad assumptions on my part.

I'm not an expert either, I'm not going to call it a "bad assumption", (we're both just a couple of laydudes on the internet) but it would be an assumption based on the paper that COVID spread among the campers and counselors. From my reading, it looks like the paper is apparently demonstrating an attack rate at this camp, but it doesn't indicate an index case status, or secondary attack rates. It's just a report that says, there was this camp, and there are some cases.

More digging needs to be done, I would think.

Leonard. Duh.

WGN news story on viral loads in young children.

If anyone is curious about what drum I may beating... this is it. This is a news article covering a recent JAMA study on viral loads of young children. The first sentence...

A troubling study just released by the Journal of the American Medical Association Pediatrics may give pause to parents and educators considering whether to reopen schools.

Way down in the article it states that the higher viral loads were found in children under 5 yrs old. (not school age). Also, there is nothing definitive on transmission, these are just viral loads measured in a lab.

The title of the article warns of "silent spreaders". Problem is... the study was run with kids who were mildly, to moderately symptomatic. The study expressly excludes asymptomatic cases.

I don't have a huge problem with the study itself... although, if I wanted to learn about real life transmission, I would take a look at the vast amounts of empirical data available out there from the daycare centers that have been open since late March. The problem is WGN and their kind of misleading reporting. That's the drum I beat.

Leonard. Duh.

Here's a link to the study.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2768952

I sorta agree with you. This is literally the most bare-bones study I've ever read. Usually, when you're doing qRT-PCR you try to control for different amounts of template being added to the reactions. I don't see anything like that here, so I wouldn't make much of it, personally. Might be off base here. Not my field.

For the diagnostic test, they don't control for amount of input. They just take the swab sample, prep it and run it, which is suitable for a +/- result. But you are absolutely right, it is hard to make comparisons for viral load without controlling input. Also worth noting that the swabbing technique to get sample makes it nearly impossible to control input. That said, those are some super high viral loads. In fact, the CT values (less than 15) are too low for accurate comparison. RT-PCR accuracy zone is between 20-35 cycles.

From this data, all that I would conclude is that these are high viral loads.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

You're still not addressing middle and high schoolers that spread the disease as much as adults.

Sure, why not...

This table is from the South Korean study that was touted by the NYT that screamed we can't go to school because 10-19 year olds spread like adults.

0-19 year olds in this study make up 2.7% of the index cases based on contact tracing. As far as I can tell from the previous fifteen threads we've been through, everybody agrees that the South Koreans have contact traced the fuck out of this thing.

Leonard. Duh.

Who just constantly down votes every post he makes. Totally defeats the purpose of the system.

never mind that pesky other table

Strange that you chose to exclude the other table (Table 2) from that article that shows 10-18yr olds having the highest rate of transmission per contact. This is relevant because kids have generally had far fewer contacts than adults, especially after schools closed.

South Korea study

Also 2.7% is the percentage of the total number of index patients in the study that are 0-19yrs old. But this study has a large number of index patients. That 2.7% still amounts to 124 10-19yr olds. Don't act like this is a small sample size issue.

I'll say it to you again, the fact that there are so few positive cases among kids is expressly because we closed schools and daycares to prevent them from exposure, not because they have some magic resistance to transmission. What we did is working for those age groups, so why on earth would we change now?

"Sooner or later, if man is ever to be worthy of his destiny, we must fill our heart with tolerance."
-Stan Lee

"Never half-ass two things. Whole-ass one thing."
-Ron Swanson

"11-0, bro"
-Hunter Carpenter (probably)

Have any of these studies broken down the 10-19 range any further? I'm curious to see if it's weighted more on one end of that age group.

This is what I would love to see and is one of the limitations of this study. There is a huge difference between a 1yr old and a 9yr old. I want to know transmission levels of elementary school age children vs infants and toddlers. I would also suspect that the transmission rates are vastly different between 18-19yr olds compared to 10-11yr olds based on behavior and levels of socialization/physical contact alone.

I think the biggest obstacle with getting that data is that so many kids have been successfully isolated from potential exposure to the virus due to school and daycare closures that the pool of potential candidates is very limited. It's similar to how early on everyone thought that young adults weren't as susceptible because so few were testing positive, then a few Spring Break trips, frat parties, and bar openings completely shutdown that train of thought.

"Sooner or later, if man is ever to be worthy of his destiny, we must fill our heart with tolerance."
-Stan Lee

"Never half-ass two things. Whole-ass one thing."
-Ron Swanson

"11-0, bro"
-Hunter Carpenter (probably)

Middle and high schoolers can adapt to virtual/distance learning better than the younger kids. And I'm more concerned about the younger kids.

The kids in elementary school, especially K-2, haven't fully learned how to school. They don't quite grasp the concept of homework. To them, there is still a very large separation between home and school.

I feel for the families who have kids due to start Kindergarten this fall and have to do it online. They're losing out on the most important part of K, which is learning how to share and interact with other people, and getting used to a daily routine. Without that, they might as well just watch Sesame Street for six hours.

We didn't even have kindergarten when I grew up. I mean, I assume some did, but we never did. My wife's kindergarten was a few mornings a week in the basement of a retired teacher with a few other kids from her neighborhood. We were Navy brats in military housing, so maybe that's why, but I wouldn't be able to recall and my folks are long gone. We didn't have Sesame Street, though we did have a half hour of Miss Francis and Romper Room, but mostly we went outside and played. Kids used to do that way back then, even little ones. I know school's important, and I know things are different today, even without the virus, but I suspect the perceived potential damage to kids is being over emphasized and either way, not worth the lives of the rest of us, either for parent's convenience or to advance a particular political agenda. I do realize that folks need to get back to work and kids at home aren't going to make that easy, but there's more in play here than just "the children". I don't believe they will be permanently damaged by delaying their school days a bit and while I do value their health and well being, I don't value theirs more than anyone else's.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

I wholeheartedly respect your opinion but I strongly disagree. The curriculum for early education has changed so much that the comparison is apples to oranges. Social interactions have changed as well. I wish kids would go out and play more but sadly it isn't reality for a lot of locations.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

Agree with you both to varying degrees. I was a USAF brat and didn't do kindergarten(which was NOT mandatory) because when my mom asked what they would be teaching she was told "well he'll learn the alphabet and his colors and be able to count from 1-20". Since I had been read to since birth and had been reading myself since age 3 1/2, my mom (correctly in my opinion) decided that my education would be better served by me staying home and learning on my own through reading and from picking things u from my parents and 5 older siblings. and honestly, the only reason I got more/much of anything from the first 3-5 years of school was that I was fortunate enough to attend schools and have teachers who recognized that I was better off being given assignments to work on by myself independently and help other students than to be bored to death sitting around til others were ready to move on.

But yes also, like most kids of my era (born 1965) I was TOLD - not asked- to go outside and play- and had the freedom to ride my bike miles away from my house on my own to play back yard football and basketball with other kids and to be back home by suppertime. Plus again with multiple siblings, I was "schooled" in associating in social interactions every day. My sister said it best when she told me about a kid's party she had for her kids and their friends where she had only a very small amount of "structured" activities leaving a lot of time for "free play". Sadly many of the kids had no idea what to do with themselves as they had never had much if any time to just "go and be kids". That type of "play" with no adults "telling" them what to do is where kids learn to exercise their imaginations and entertain themselves without just sitting in front of a screen.

I think the in-person school experience IS most important in the elementary school years where a child "learns how to learn". I am quite thankful my own kids are in their late 20s and that my family is not having to deal with this virtual vs. in person education issue.

From the 2018 VT-uva game-"This is when LEGENDS are made!"

Well, you're right. I does seem that kids today are raised totally differently than we were (born 1950) but I do often wonder about parenting choices and styles being the reason for it. My brother, and I love him, but he lived on 5 acres in Nelson County, off the main road. His two boys weren't allowed to go outside unsupervised. In the day time. On their own property. The list of fears were almost ludicrous, but what do you say to a concerned parent? The kids weren't bored often, I guess, because they had all the games and such, though TV time was limited and mostly educational. My mother kicked us out of the house for a lot of the day and it was up to us to entertain ourselves. Yes, we had kids in the neighborhood though we lived in the country, and we did play together often, especially baseball and football, but we also spent a lot of time with one or even no friends doing things like exploring the woods and in my case, fishing. But yeah, we rode our bicycles miles away from home on skinny country roads to get to fishing holes, swam in a local pond unsupervised (after passing an easy swimming "test" and getting parental permission), and generally showed up in time for supper or got punished if we didn't. I'm not sure parents today are willing to do that for their kids, and I know in some places shouldn't do that to their kids. What a world, what a world?

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

I grew up very near Ben Lomond Park in Manassas, across the creek from Bull Run, and some of my best childhood memories were when my buddies and I would grab our bikes, ride through the paths in the woods, cross the creek, get soaked, explore Bull Run, dry out, cross the creek, get soaked, and then show up at home caked in mud.

I sorta agree with you

None of this is my field. But I know sensationalism, and that article is textbook. I'm not anti-pandemic, anti-mask, or anti-whatever. I just want honest reporting, and some practical/logical context given with the data every now and then... Especially when society changing, gi-normous policy decisions are being made because of it.

Leonard. Duh.

I'm not anti-pandemic

I am. I mean seriously, fuck this pandemic.

I've tended to just stay out of these threads because I don't feel I have the time to go back and do all the links etc to show factual proof of comments I make. But I want to reply to your statement here, And I do apologize Leonard, I am really not trying to attack you personally:

But I know sensationalism

I just want honest reporting, and some practical/logical context given with the data every now and then

I think everyone agrees with you. We are all looking for honest reporting. But having read your comments on these threads and the replies given including my own, my impression is that you are only regarding sensationalism when it differs from the opinion you want. In early threads you posted many article links and video that I subsequently tried to address to show how they should not be trusted. Some of those from "doctors" that no one in the industry regards as legitimate.

Early days I stated, had USA simply just bit the bullet and closed down as a country for several months then we would be under control more or less. Your argument was that it had and it was simply catching up to the timeline of closure that China had. It wasn't though and hasn't been. China, New Zealand, Taiwan, Singapore are really top of the class at the moment. Australia also up until their recent lapse due to a very politicized Provincial leader stuffed up their control measures. All of these countries share same things in common. Centralized control measures, a period of universal quarantine for whole country, extreme travel controls, active monitoring and reporting and aggressive testing, government required usage of masks and social distancing. These are the models every country should be following. USA is so, so far behind because those in control are not controlling themselves.

Policy in USA has failed because decisions are being made for political and monetary reasons, and not for health of the people or the country. And that is not exclusive to one political side or the other. Both sides from my direct experience are making these type of decisions.

I do believe that there is a lot of hyperbolic statements coming from both sides of the argument. Most definitely, but if knowing sensationalism and wanting honest reporting is truly your goal, then I implore you to take more time and be more thorough with your understanding of the articles you post, the history of the doctor/scientist posting them or the funding of the organization "reports" are coming from. Anything, extreme left or right, should be thrown out no matter what source it comes from.

Blindly posting information only when it supports you beating your drum (your words) is the hallmark of sensationalism.

I suggest that everyone just take a look at Sweden's approach to the whole thing!

"Hey Bud, you wont have to hold the opponent to 17 points anymore."

Why? They are nowhere near the percentage needed for their herd immunity and were the second highest infected country last month? Yes they are seeing cases drop but if you are asserting the correlation of no lockdown with causation of lower cases that is a dangerous assumption.

Culturally things like being a more isolated/introverted country, health care norms, paid time off for illness, and perceived social responsibility are all other impacts that matter.

VB born, class of '14

I was genuinely curious, so I looked.

https://www.newsweek.com/sweden-which-never-had-lockdown-sees-covid-19-c...

Amid fears over a potential second wave of the novel coronavirus across Europe, new infections in Sweden, where full lockdown measures were not implemented, have mostly declined since late June.

The number of new cases per 100,000 people in Sweden reported over the last 14 days since July 29 dropped by 54 percent from the figure reported over 14 days prior to then, according to the latest report Wednesday from the World Health Organization (WHO).

Meanwhile, other parts of Europe have reported large spikes in new cases over the same period, including Spain, France, Germany, Belgium and The Netherlands, which have seen increases between 40 and 200 percent over the last month, according to the latest WHO report Wednesday.

And then this one...
https://fortune.com/2020/07/29/no-point-in-wearing-mask-sweden-covid/

Sure. While we're at it, can we adopt Swedens approach to social welfare and universal Healthcare?

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

So fun fact for the day. My brother in law is a security guard for the Virginia DMV.

His Friday was being sent to a normally closed DMV. It was opened specially for all of the new coming Washington Football Team players, staff, and family. He said his Nissan has never been surrounded by so many Cadillac's, BMW's, Maserati's, etc as it was that day in the parking lot. He said, it also made him feel like he needed to work out again.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/07/31/new-evidence-su...

Two new studies, though from different parts of the world, have arrived at the same conclusion: that young children not only transmit SARS-CoV-2 efficiently, but may be major drivers of the pandemic as well.Β 

The first, which was published in The Lancet yesterday, reports findings from a pediatric hospital in Chicago, Illinois. The second, a preprint manuscript awaiting peer review, was conducted in the mountainous province of Trento, Italy.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Report on the ground here in the NRV - a VT student returned to Blacksburg from New Orleans and is positive for COVID (I do not know if this individual was knowingly positive before returning or was tested after arriving), subsequently infected their roommate, who shared it at work and there is now a new cluster of cases at a business in Giles county.

The VT plan of "please quarantine for 14 days before returning to ensure you are not ill" has already gone out the window. Expect fall sports to be canceled and for VT, along with probably all other universities, to be closed again within weeks. The town hall on Friday with President Sands et al. was a rosy view of the situation that concluded "if everything goes right, we're going to be fine." It has already gone wrong, and on-campus move-in hasn't even started yet.

Well I do think it is very likely that many universities will attempt to open back up and have some level of in-person instruction only to shutdown and move back to 100% virtual classes.

That said, the scenario you are describing must've been something they were expecting. It will be a matter of how well they identify cases/clusters, contact trace, and contain that determines if things go "wrong". But I have to think this was expected, and this will allow them to test their ability to identify and contain before the semester is in full swing.

I did not see the town hall, but if he actually said "if everything goes right, we're going to be fine" is a really poor statement to make. Obviously, given the circumstances, it is almost certain that many things will not go "right".

I'm paraphrasing, but the entire messaging campaign is that everyone needs to follow guidelines exactly. I'm sure they do not count on 100% compliance but they are projecting an extremely optimistic view, here on campus and in media they are publishing. This incident exposes weaknesses in the plan: (1) it was an off-campus student, who the administration "hopes will do the right thing" - and that is close to what was actually said - so there is no testing or tracing requirement aside from whatever VDH might do, and (2) the student did not follow what was asked of them, to quarantine for 14 days before coming to Blacksburg, literally traveling from a hot spot without isolating first.

We will see this repeat, and we will find out quickly if the university's resources, medical providers, and local hospital capacity will keep up.

it was an off-campus student, who the administration "hopes will do the right thing" - and that is close to what was actually said

saw this on twitter and couldnt help but laugh-cry

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Speaking to people who work the public safety side of things in the area up there it's been nothing but a cluster. People in leadership positions not reading guidelines or reports. Groups not adhering the guidance for the departments. Plans that don't meet current CDC etc guidance. Lack of testing enforcement etc.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Had the chance to speak with somebody who works for VT and developing the coronavirus awareness course for VT.

Can confirm everything you just said about how much the higher ups are not taking this seriously.

That was Guitar.

As for Covid response. I'm not impressed with former VTPD Chief who became the "head" of all these public service type departments at VT also not a fan of new Montgomery County new Emergency Management Chief. Neither one has broad based experience in dealing with large scale emergencies much less a pandemic. They aren't listening to the people with more experience in planning and training. They aren't even reading their guidance.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Just one of the many times they have had people together without masks for VTPD. Including a regional law enforcement academy graduation.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Well, I'll be... I used to bounce with McDearis at Big Al's.

If you play it, they will win.

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used." -The BoD

My bad lol scrolling too fast and didn't notice the different usernames

Is it alright if I share your comment about the New Orleans student on twitter?

Don't see why not. News will get out soon enough.

It's out.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

See Little Bobby Tables response to the previous post for my reaction.

Some good news...

CDC updated national COVID like emergency room visit data for July. On 7/31 the percentage dropped to 2.3%. That's the lowest it's been since mid June.

Leonard. Duh.

At the state level, the percentage has dropped off lately for the "hotspot" states of Florida, Arizona, and Texas. As well as pesky "reopened too early" states of Tennessee, South Carolina, and Georgia. (Actually Georgia is flat at 4%)

Leonard. Duh.

Percentage of ER visits for Covid-related issues?

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Yes. I suck at typing on my phone sometimes. Edit- The CDC calls it "COVID Like Illness."

Also... in the not so great news department...

Leonard. Duh.

Hmmmm. So now it's a conspiracy.

(Spoiler Alert: The CDC is the Trump Administration)

Leonard. Duh.

Lol. So much mental gymnastics and denial here. Truly excellent trolling my good man. But you're right about one thing... It's not a conspiracy if it's out in the open, it's just an abuse of power... unless you think bypassing the CDC was intended to improve the fidelity and validity of information available to the public... in which case I have ocean front in Arizona to sell you.

Ok, man.

Leonard. Duh.

Happy superspreader event day.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Whelp... Here comes round three... So glad we're going to do home schooling at least this fall.

How can it be round 3 when we haven't even started round 2 yet due to still trying to fight off round 1?

1st round: Cases spike across the US
Prematurely loosen precautions
2nd round: Everything explodes again
3rd round: Schools open and it spikes even more

Granted we don't really see much of a drop in cases this time.

Wait a minute. Does school normally start this early? August 4? I know NJ tends to start later and run later than most places, but my daughter's school does not start until around Labor Day. Usually not until after it.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

It's different in different states. School always started back in August during my childhood in SC, and the same for Georgia.

On a side note: The overwhelming majority of my family lives in Georgia, and many of my cousins now have middle and HS aged kids going back to school now. I am very nervous, but preparing to hear about many of my relatives having COVID soon. Very upsetting. Particular for my cousin who developed (revealed itself?) an autoimmune disorder in her 40's despite being a very healthy person. Really hoping her 8th and 10th grade kids don't bring that home to her.

Some parts of GA start the first week of August and then have extra breaks built into the school year. I think they get a full week for fall break in October and some additional time off in the spring.

Thanks Chris and Mike. I know that we started and ended later in NJ compared to MO when I moved as a kid, but it was a couple of weeks. Had no idea people actually started more than a month ahead of us though. Just did a huge double take when I saw first day of school this early.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

Call it 40% mask usage? How in the world is it not required at least for class changes? If you can space out classrooms, open windows, whatever, great. But this situation seems like a no-brainer for required mask usage. It's a school, they can absolutely enforce it (legally at least, logistically it'd be a pain, but so will a massive COVID outbreak). It's like we want to be bad at handling this thing.

Honestly for most classes teachers should switch not students. For the few classes that students need to change rooms for you do it with limited amounts of students.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

With over 2400 students, that would be tough if not impossible.

No, I *don't* want to go to the SEC. Why do you ask?

We don't love dem Hoos.

Why? English, Math, History can all be taught in same room without students moving classes. Science, and tech classes would need to move. You move them when needed by planning to keep one class at a time in a particular hallway at a time.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

That assumes that everyone in the same English class is also taking the same math class at the same time and then the same history class all at the same time. Remembering my own HS English classes and how most of us came from different classes beforehand and then went our separate ways afterward, I'm going to go out on a limb and proclaim that that's simply not gonna be the case often.

No, I *don't* want to go to the SEC. Why do you ask?

We don't love dem Hoos.

Those would all be things you need to work out in planning. If given the right amount of time and resources there were other options than. Open up like normal and hope for the best.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

You can't really work it out in planning though. You're going to have some kids that take two different science classes, or no math, or a different math because they started at a different level in middle school. Some kids will take Spanish, others will take French, and others still will take both. Not to mention all of the electives that require specialized equipment and therefore need to be taught in a specific room.

This brings up a great point. What if someone is in AP calc and below average English (or visa-versa). Def didn't think of this prior to your comment.

Twitter me

Exactly. And you find that to be the case quite frequently in large suburban schools.

No, I *don't* want to go to the SEC. Why do you ask?

We don't love dem Hoos.

Not an indictment of your comment, but as a whole, this mindset of "we can't do x because its really tough" is kind of the whole problem here, imo. The human race has done extraordinary things in the face of great adversity, but when asked to stay home as much as possible and wear a mask when we won't because it is too tough.

Imagine if the big wigs spent the summer preparing to not be in school, instead of sitting on their hands until the last moment? I would think some kind of half decent solution could have been able to agreed upon. Instead we have a haphazard response with the answer seemingly being "idk, fuck it".

It's a frustrating mindset that seems to be very pervasive and highlighted in these trying times. This shit sucks and no one is having a great time, besides maybe introverts. However, if everyone somehow could band together and not be dicks to one another just for a short while, I could imagine things would be getting better not worse. (also, who knows, just a hunch)

I personally feel very lost and conflicted with all that is going on, and having a place where I can post some rambling thoughts that may resonate with some people is quite cathartic. I am grateful for all the well thought and civil discourse on these threads. I have learned a ton reading through all of them. end rant.

I criticize knowing full well I could never do what these athletes do.

The mindset isn't "we can't do x because it's really tough." The mindset, for some, is that "I shouldn't have to do x because I don't want to." Good, decent, half-decent, and awful solutions have been come up with in many areas around the globe and in different parts of this country. That's the frustrating part.

And no, introverts are not having a remotely good time either. We don't just lock ourselves in isolation all the time.

The people, especially when allowed to crowd source, are a crafty bunch and can solve problems.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Imagine if the big wigs spent the summer preparing to not be in school, instead of sitting on their hands until the last moment? I would think some kind of half decent solution could have been able to agreed upon. Instead we have a haphazard response with the answer seemingly being "idk, fuck it".

I completely agree with that, both at the K12 and the postsecondary levels. Case in point: at my university, they've been shuffling everyone's classrooms around in order for every course section (scheduled for hybrid face-to-face instruction, that is) to be able to observe social distancing guidelines. Just yesterday I got an email saying that they couldn't find classrooms for my two courses and asking me if I'd be willing to teach 100% remote. Fine time to ask me that question since the semester starts Monday... but fortunately I had been preparing for the eventuality of going full-remote anyway. Ultimately, if it helps the university community as a whole, I'll slide out of the way.

If there hadn't been so much of a push to maintain the status quo no matter what, we'd have been much further along in this situation...

No, I *don't* want to go to the SEC. Why do you ask?

We don't love dem Hoos.

Ummm, it's Georgia?

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

"The primary consideration should always be the safety, the health of the welfare of the children, as well as the teachers and the secondary effects for spreading (to) the parents and other family members,"

If the school's primary consideration was safety like Dr. Fauci outlines above in the article you linked, the picture above would look very different. Your cherry picking of the facts is getting really old.

Pretty sure you will not find any recommendation from Fauci that includes a packed hallway with a handful of students wearing masks.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. Something needs to change, but their response sounds like it won't.

But don't you see? The problem wasn't that they crammed people into a small space with no mitigation, it is that someone made it public knowledge.

Everything would have been fine if no one noticed

/s

Those are 9 that felt ill enough to get tested. How many other kids were they in close contact with in those crowded hallways/classrooms. I hate to think how many it will be next week. Given current climate around this, I doubt we'll know.

Sad to start seeing these stories of college athletes struggling to recover from Covid and then seeing people still comparing this to the flu. These are young men in the prime of their lives, in fantastic physical shape, dealing with lasting negative effects that potentially could cause long-term damage and people still feel the need to downplay this.

Indiana football player.

Arizona football player.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

Nobody is downplaying it. The fact is that we either go on level 1 lockdown, or a "positive" covid case is treated reasonably, based on the data. Obviously "partial" lockdowns are not reducing the "cases". I'm not even talking about deaths.

Nobody is downplaying it.

I'm gonna have to disagree with you on that one, buddy.

#38-0

I don't think he's talking about dudes on the internet.

Leonard. Duh.

Where do you think the dudes on the Internet are getting it from? Prominent figures and policy makers have given the ammo to these people.

Any policy maker that is currently "down playing" the pandemic is in a small minority, and you know this. Not gonna play beach blanket semantics bingo today.

Leonard. Duh.

does it matter how much power and influence that minority has?

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

Yes. And they don't.

Leonard. Duh.

Uhhhh.... Yes, there are a lot of people downplaying it. People are still banging on the drum that it's only old people that can have big issues catching it. People screaming to open everything back up to full capacity. Saying most people don't die so it's not a big deal. Opening up freaking high schools and not wearing masks, whether that's the schools or just the students.

It's being downplayed big time to the point where people think it's just a conspiracy.

Helped a couple at the boat ramp dock in the wind yesterday. The woman absolutely thought it was a bunch of partisan hooey, wasn't as bad as the flu, said she was a retired teacher and that kids should be back in school all day every day and people worried about the virus were buying a bill of goods. I still helped them dock the boat, remained cordial after telling her my take on it, but shook my head at the ignorance of someone even older than myself, and an education worker. Her biggest problem was that she had to miss her grand daughter's graduation, as if that trumped people dying and being permanently damaged by this disease. Boo hoo.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Statistically speaking the flu is more lethal for ages 0-45 and about the same as covid for ages 45-70. Meanwhile, Covid is significantly more lethal than the flu for those over the age of 70 and for anyone with a significant comorbidity.

We have vaccines for the flu, not everybody gets it at the same time, we have treatments for flu. Covid is not the flu and to my way of thinking, in the short term, is much more dangerous than the flu.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

With the data and statistics we have, it is only more dangerous to the age group I indicated, but not the younger and healthier age groups.

With the data and statistics we have, it is only more dangerous deadly to the age group I indicated, but not the younger and healthier age groups.

FTFY. We still have no idea what the long-term effects of the disease are. Many of the younger people who seem fine now may find that they have significant heart or lung complications in a decade or two, or even something else.

Death is not the only possible permanent effect of an illness like this.

Can we pump the breaks on the whole "flu isn't a big deal" approach? Yes, it demonstrably is more dangerous for people younger than 70 and the flu vaccines nowhere near a cure-all.

Hokie, Hokie, Hokie, Hi. Tech, Tech, V.P.I.
Sola-Rex, Sola-Rah. Polytech- Vir-gin-I-a.
Ray, Rah, V.P.I. Team! Team! Team!

Yeah, and with the flu you are sick for a week and then back to your normal routine almost right afterwards. With COVID there's a chance for lasting heart, lung, and possibly other damage that could be permanent. Even months after they're still not back to their before states, and these are younger people too.

This has been a concern of mine, no doubt. It can definitely last longer than the typical flu, but it is not unheard of for the flu to last weeks, even for someone healthy. Most healthy people contracting Covid are recovering in a week or less.

The long term damage is still an unknown. Provide me with some links please, because the picture on this is not clear at all. My thinking is that a lot of the lung damage are in those patients who were intubated for a period of time. Seriously, haven't seen much on this in a while, so share some links if you can/want.

If we treated this based on data and took it seriously, things would be close to back to normal and we'd not be dealing with this anymore. The idea that this virus hasn't been constantly downplayed is laughable.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

The state of california was locked down to the point of stay at home orders universally. What about that was not taken seriously? They have the most cases in the US and climbing

Yes, with tons of exceptions. And then they opened back up without establishing robust testing and contact tracing procedures and what a surprise, it came back and wasn't controlled.

You don't just eliminate the virus with lockdowns, you simply slow the spread and buy time to establish the necessary procedures to prevent it from spreading again. If you lockdown without doing that, then it literally just takes the inevitable spread and shifts it into the future. As most of the US is learning right now.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

The goal should not be to track and prevent "cases". The goal should always have been to protect the high risk population, taking necessary steps to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed, and allow low risk population to carry on.

Clearly no lockdown is strict enough or long enough to prevent spread and increasing cases.

Yet other countries have been able to track and prevent new cases and essentially eliminate the spread of the virus. Why shouldn't the US try to do the same?

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

I have a friend in tiny Highland County here in Va. She went to NC to help her sister post surgery, returned home and felt ill with a fever. She went in Monday to get tested, her husband didn't get tested because he was asymptomatic and I assume wasn't eligible. 7 Freakin' Days until they'll know the results. 7 days. They are quarantining together, but we gotta do better than this, don't we?

Edit: My friend's test didn't take 7 days, she heard back in two and tested positive. She and hubby, so far feeling well, are obviously in quarantine, he until Aug 24th. She does feel "punk", with less energy and evening fever spikes and some nasal congestion, but still feels pretty lucky with mild symptoms we hope won't get worse. Hubby will possibly attempt to be tested at the end of his quarantine, but we don't know whether the health dept. there in Highland will want to do that or not. We're all of an age that makes this virus more than a possible inconvenience, and she wants our friendship network to see her as a cautionary tale. Since she was distanced and masked appropriately upon her return to Highland, her brief contacts with other residents there before feeling ill, were not deemed needful of testing.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

We are wasting testing resources on workers/employees and healthy people and those that do not have symptoms. Tests should have always been reserved for those presenting symptoms.

I don't understand this line of thinking. Why reserve tests for those showing symptoms? Anyone showing symptoms should act as if they have it and be in quarantine. It's the asymptomatic spreaders that are the danger. Shouldn't we be testing to find THOSE people?

Could not disagree more with this. If you want things to return to normal, the quickest safest way is to have testing readily and egregiously available such that you have no excuse NOT to get tested. And if testing resources are still scarce 8 months in to a global pandemic, my finger's pointing right back to a failure of American leadership at the federal executive level that has myriad tools at their disposal for just such an occasion.

That is what we have been trying to do and it has proven very difficult, hence the "7 days" referred to above. My cousin recently had it and it took 8 days, he was back to 100% before he received his positive test result.

Maybe it is possible, idk, but politics, money, resources, or something is getting in the way. Again, why are we beating our heads against the same hard wall over and over? Why do we continue to insist on attempting something that is not working?

Save the tests/resources for those with symptoms and especially those who are high risk. Turn the results around quickly so that proper treatment can be started for the high risk patients.

Never in history has everyone in the US had a job, a driver's license/ID, an income, a house, a voter registration, health insurance, etc. Name one simple thing that the government is able to provide to every single person in America? Nothing, so why would we expect them to be able to provide a Covid test to everyone in America?

It isn't a matter of what you want or what you think should happen, it is a matter of what is possible and practical. Build a sustainable response and policy model that can actually be executed.

Very easy to have a 50 page document outlining things, another thing to execute on such a large scale and have 50 states plus localities and public/private businesses and agencies all working in concert.

Pointing to a document doesn't suddenly make it possible for anyone to receive a test whenever they want one and have results returned in timely manner.

Clearly... you're not a golfer.

Interesting how the community mitigation section only calls for a voluntary quarantine of the "ill" or "exposed", and no real mention of a widespread lock down of, well... everything.

Leonard. Duh.

Yes, no mention of mandated business closures.

This is a federal response playbook geared toward the mobilization of national resources and use of executive authorities in support of/absence of state and local efforts. The business closure orders have been state and local initiatives. I'm not an emergency response expert but I assume there's legal guidance and justification provided to the executive in some of the statutes referenced in the playbook (should the executive decide to exercise emergency powers like closing businesses).

Here's what the Community Mitigation section of this document actually says:

The voluntary suggestion is for those who are ill (i.e. preexisting condition). The recommendation for those expose to a pandemic causing disease is quarantine which is decidedly not voluntary. So I think you're once again reading it wrong. You're also conveniently ignoring the part about dismissal from schools which you've said is unnecessary.

And that's just a short paragraphing a 69 page document. If that's all your getting from it, you 're missing the forest for a tree.

And that's just a short paragraphing a 69 page document.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Which, early on we couldn't identify rapidly, and locking things down might have given us an opportunity to, say, simultaneously build up testing capacity, so we could identify the "ill" and "exposed," and temporarily slow the spread, to the point where we could mitigate the virus as a whole.

Like, you do know that other countries have actually done this, right? Following that plan? This isn't pie in the sky dreaming, this has worked. Being contrarian and asking questions has a useful place, and it's great in poking holes in a potential plan, to find weak spots in it. Once you have a demonstrated, and successful, plan, sitting in the back of the room and pointing out linguistic inconsistencies that don't represent actual inconsistencies in strategy is just annoying.

Please just tell me which countries, so there is no confusion or guessing.

I posted this in one of the last few threads, but I'll link it again.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_France#Lockdown

I know people in France (and FWIW, Denmark) who describe their lockdowns as "95% reduction in public activity." People literally only left their homes for food and medicine, or if they were essential workers. By comparison, the US only reduced activity by about 50% nationwide. We were never really locked down by comparison, we were inconvenienced. And we're seeing the results of that.

Another example: New Zealand. They locked down hard and they did so early.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53274085

france and US have very similar deaths per capita at the moment. France is seeing cases start to rise again. Cannot compare NEw Zealand to the US. New Zealand is more like Oklahoma, only more isolated and not in the heart of a very large country with the world's largest economy.

EDIT: Also, the US death per capita would not be nearly as high if we better protected nursing homes instead of putting them at direct risk. So, I'm not really buying that in the end France will be seen as having done much better than the US.

CAN compare these, but NOT these...
Selective much?

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Not really. I don't think any country makes for a very good and direct comparison to the US. But if he wants to compare to France, I did so. Then, I explained why I think New Zealand is a terrible comparison.

That said, I will concede that it appears NEw Zealand did a very good job limiting the spread of the virus. I'm just not sure the same type of response is practical in the US, the world's largest economy and a country of 350M people.

You see, we cannot compare the US to New Zealand because NZ has been successful, whereas the US's national response has been flat out embarrassing

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Korea and Japan for starters. Most of Europe too. Italy did when they realized how bad it was.

Honestly, a good of the developed world. Some drug their feet more than others, but nothing like the US.

But we've gone through this before with you and you just dismiss them as not being comparable to the US because freedom and geography.

Japan is experiencing a spike in cases right now. Australia, particularly the state of Victoria, also strictly locked things down... they're now performing part Deux, because there's a spike in cases.

Hong Kong, the country for whom the media was singing praises back in April for their vigilant masking and lock down... spike in cases.

The state of Hawaii literally cut itself off from the rest of the world and had a mask mandate in late April. They're now experiencing a spike in cases.

Leonard. Duh.

So what exactly is your point again? What policy course are you advocating for? Refresh my memory.

Japan has fewer total confirmed cases (~41,000) than 34 of the states individually. Japan has fewer new cases in the last seven days than 42 of the states individually. Japan has a population of 127 million people. The largest of the states that is doing better than the entire country of Japan, which is "experiencing a spike in cases," is West Virginia, with a population of about 1.7 million. The magnitudes of these things just aren't the same man, and at this point it mostly seems like disingenuous trolling when you insist that those are comparable.

Sometimes when it quacks like a duck, it's a duck.

Thank you, last I saw Japan was having about 1,500 daily new cases in a country of 127 million people versus 60,000+ new cases in a county of 330 million. So yeah, other countries aren't doing as well as they once were, but still way better than the US ever did.

Birdboy makes an excellent point, that I hadn't put together when looking at the numbers. We have more new cases PER DAY than Japan has had over the course of the entire run of the pandemic. If that's them failing right now, boy do I wish we were failing like they are.

I've made this point in another thread. Japan is not a good country to compare to. They've been notably bad at test rates.

As of August 1 they're performing 0.11 Tests per thousand compared to the US performing 2.38 tests per thousand.

(add if applicable) /s

Sure, let's go by deaths then, if we don't like the testing numbers. Numbers are closer there, ~1000 deaths, that's only worse than half of states. Looks like Kentucky is the biggest state that is doing better than Japan, at about 4.5 million people. Even if we're not super happy with directly comparing a single metric, the overall point across several metrics, that this is different by nearly two orders of magnitude, holds up pretty well.

Yeah I'm not going to get into data accuracy and differences in reporting again. Every metric gets skewed when you aren't testing anyone.

(add if applicable) /s

Surely the claim isn't that the measurements are off by a factor of like 50-70 though, right? Even being off by a factor of two or three, which would be a LOT of cases, Japan's case load, even in the middle of a spike in cases, isn't in the same ballpark as our own. And suggesting that looking to Japan is a bad plan, because of that spike, still doesn't hold up.

I'm still unclear as to why we have a limited amount of tests? In my mind, the top two priorities should be testing as much as possible (including asymptomatic people), and wearing masks as much as possible.

Twitter me

Because the NBA needs them all

Recruit Prosim

That never even crossed my mind. All these athletes getting tested constantly to play games and practice. I'm also sure they're not waiting 7-14 days for results like us peons.

Even if they tested everyone in the bubble once a day, which I'm pretty sure they're not doing, that's not a drop in the bucket nationally. It's not great optics, but it's not driving any shortages.

What state are you in? GA has nose tests that turn around in 30 minutes. But it's impossible to find an appointment.

Twitter me

Good luck to her and her husband. 26 year old kid tested on Wednesday, came back positive Thursday. She reports basically the same symptoms as your friend.

Wife and I got tested today due to contact with her - we supposedly will know by Sunday (or Tuesday? They didn't say if business days or calendar days). We're both starting to present the same symptoms, but wife has it worse than I do.

Good luck to us all.

Wait, what?

Good luck to all of you, as well. I have a ton of very good and dear old friends, but I can't afford to lose another one. 48 years of love and friendship still isn't enough for me. Call me greedy.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

1) we are not other countries
2) many countries have higher death per capita than US
3) lockdowns are not a sustainable model. What the US and many European countries have done is not sustainable while waiting for a vaccine
4) you keep saying if we had just done the lockdown properly we could be getting back to normal. There is no way for you to substantiate this claim. We are not Japan.
5) The goal should not be all about preventing cases. It is a fool's errand in the US to do so. We have destroyed the economy in ways that have not yet been seen. The goal should be about protecting the high risk population, which is the best way to reduce the number of deaths. Instead, Covid patients were sent into nursing homes that did not have the ability to prevent the virus from spreading to the rest of the nursing home residents.

Japan is actually not doing so good lately, either. And that's with the most subservient mask culture on earth the last two months.

Leonard. Duh.

Our military is causing some of those outbreaks.

I have no links because this is word of mouth but from what I understand, at least the Navy base at Yokosuka, JN, just south of Tokyo, there has been no off base liberty, the gates are closed and guarded.

I understand that is the case at all the U.S. millitary bases in Japan but, I only have word of mouth, I have seen no official documents for quite some time (a couple months ago, IIRC).

Update:
Here's a copy of the Liberty restrictions for Navy personnel in JN as of 25 March. No offbase liberty.

There are Army there as well but, in comparison, much less. I suspect their liberty has similar restrictions.
I am going to conclude that absent any other data, the U.S. military has very limited opportunity to be 0 patient for any covid outbreaks in Japan.

Commander Naval Forces Japan Liberty Restrictions in Response to COVID19 25 March 2020

This is going to be great for the ACC.

There's about 50 links to pick from if you google "Okinawa outbreak" and all them are tying it to the US Marine base.

Thank you for that. leg
I'll take all that with a grain of salt.

This is no surprise as there would be quite a bit of politics involved in this.
The local politics of Okinawa would be to blame U.S. Marines for anything and everything to continue pressure to get rid of the base. this has been going on for decades. I remember back in the 80's the complaint that the resident Okinawans were having a spike in auto accidents, which was blamed on U.S. Marines. No U.S. personnel were involved. It was al politics.

It is a very popular tourist destination and lots of foreign travel through there as well.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

to the US Marine base.

I blame all my friends/family in the Army for the flood of jokes coming to mind at reading that.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Crayons apparently aren't the cure

Recruit Prosim

If that's the case, wouldn't that point out that Japan's early success wasn't necessarily their mask in public culture but more that they avoided seeding events of the virus in the first place?

Recruit Prosim

Yes, an island country with no borders common with another country, isolated from other portions of that same country is inherently easier to isolate than any other type of geography with the possible exception of an archipelago geography.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Pisses me off that the US didn't go full on lockdown in early January when we got early warning signs

Recruit Prosim

The measures that were taken, blew up politically and in the media, making any other real actions impossible to even suggest.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Hadn't seen the latest cases in Japan. Thanks for pointing that out.

Edit: logging off for a while.

In points 1) and 4) you seem to be suggesting that the US is different so we cannot compare it to other countries, so why are you comparing the US to other countries in point 2) (setting aside how misleading, or outright untrue point 2) is)? Speaking of...

"2) many countries have higher death per capita than US"

I would hardly consider 3 to be many countries. UK, Chile, and Peru. That's it. Brazil is right on our tail though. Being firmly entrenched in the Top 5 of deaths per 100,000 hardly gives the US the right to point fingers elsewhere.

deaths per 100,000

3) No one is saying lockdowns should be sustained indefinitely. Lockdowns are meant to be put in place until sustainable thresholds of new cases are met. Unfortunately, there are two major problems with how "lockdowns" were instituted. First, the initial "lockdowns" in most of this country were half-hearted efforts with tons of exceptions and people still moving about, all while lots of people refused to wear masks or wore them improperly. Secondly, what I think the bigger problem with the lockdowns in this country is, is that most of the lockdowns occurred relatively at the same time. So, while outbreaks were happening in larger population centers, the rest of the country locked down well before the virus really got to their areas. Now, with economic and political pressures building with relatively few cases in these communities, they are re-opening just in time for the spread of the virus to truly reach them. Lockdowns should have been instituted in a more coordinated, staged process focusing on walling off hot-spots. But that would have required a strong national-level response, which we just did not get. The national level response was basically, "figure it out for yourselves govenors".
5) The goal was not preventing cases. It was about spreading out the cases over time to mitigate the strain on the healthcare system. You know, "flattening the curve". Obviously, sending cases to nursing homes was a mistake, but it was done so to free up capacity in hospitals and ICUs. But we know this with hindsight. At the time, the areas that did so were getting hammered by the virus and desperately doing what they could to try to save lives. Mistakes were made because localities were fighting an opponent they knew little about with little or no help. Also, moving patients to nursing homes wasn't exactly happening all over the country. I know New York did it, but where else was this the stayed policy? Again, a strong, coordinated, national response could have helped with this by coordinating lockdowns around hotspots and by educating the public on how long "flattening the curve" would actually take and that the flattened curves wouldn't be occuring simultaneously throughout the country. I believe that a major failing of top health officials was not hammering home the time scale of "flattening the curve". It will take months for each area, starting when the pandemic truly arrives in said area. A lot of people erroneously assumed that a few weeks or a month would be all it took and they are now restless and frustrated. Beating a dead horse here, but a strong national-level response could gave helped with this.

"Sooner or later, if man is ever to be worthy of his destiny, we must fill our heart with tolerance."
-Stan Lee

"Never half-ass two things. Whole-ass one thing."
-Ron Swanson

"11-0, bro"
-Hunter Carpenter (probably)

The partisan political response to this crisis is glaringly obvious to anyone looking objectively at it. Tough to even discuss this whole deal without pointing the finger where it should be pointed and getting the total ban hammer for stating the obvious. Thanks for doing a good job with your measured response, wish I had your restraint.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Here's what I see happening:

1) Tribe member posits leading question about the disease or the response to the disease and says something like, "I'm just trying to understand..." or "I just want to see both sides."

2) Community member responds with information answering said question, attempting to fill information gaps and/or clear up misunderstood, misleading information

3) Tribe member pivots by pointing to something that was not directly answered in the community response or contained in the original question. The implication is to invalidate what the community provided without making a substantive or cohesive argument that can be directly/easily addressed.

Does this count as "What-abouting?"

In the army it was called sharpshooting.

On the web it's called trolling.

What exactly are they doing? That the US is not? Not going to Myrtle Beach or Bars?

Yeah, we can't do that because people would call it racist, given who is in the White House. Especially now.

Or it wouldn't matter, because our caseload is as high or higher than any of those countries. The idea that this is an outside threat now is inane. This is good old fashioned, American grown virus we're dealing with now.

striving for below average!

Never in my life have I heard below average should be the goal, but here we are.

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I never said that. But I will die on this hill; so much fear was put into people that travel, tourism, hotels, restaurants, retail businesses, and on and on will take a very long time to recover. Millions have lost their job and they may never be able to acquire the same standard of living that they had pre-Covid. For many, that will be grim and lead to depression. Thousands of business owners will close their doors for good. Tenants that have not been paying rent may be evicted by the millions, landlords will file for bankruptcy, then are we headed for another massive bank bailout because the banks will be left holding so many bad mortgages.

So far, this may have been simply an inconvenience to a lot of people, but I cannot help but feel that things are about to be very bad economically and it will lead to a lot of issues and unrest.

We did not properly consider what the shear amount of fear would do to the country and the economy. All for a disease that by all accounts has a very low mortality for young and healthy people under the age of 60 or so.

The fear has created so much unnecessary damage. It is devastating. We have been jumping to the worst case scenarios regarding this disease from day 1, in a time when there should have been a reassuring message. Even now, people are not willing to admit that Covid has a very low mortality for healthy people. Everyone jumps to the "long-lasting permanent damage" and as far as I can tell that is based on patients who were intubated for a long time or perhaps intubated when maybe they should not have been. And yes, maybe there is a small percentage of people that will have complications, but why are treating that is the normal when all the data suggests it is not?

There was a period at the beginning when I was afraid and I was prepared to be in my house for a long time. But I quickly realized it was not healthy, that healthy people are surviving this at a very very high rate, and that the massive amount of fear is doing more long term damage than the disease itself.

Down votes welcome if you cannot handle my opinion. But I'm tired of seeing all the fear and the damage that it is doing. I'm not saying don't wear a mask and don't take precautions that make sense, but I am saying that the messaging needs to change. We can be smart about the disease without spreading fear and panic and doomsday messaging.

I've got to stay away from these threads moving forward, but I had to get that out before I left.

Millions have lost their job and they may never be able to acquire the same standard of living that they had pre-Covid

I certainly agree that it's a tragedy that millions of people will likely face long-term despair, lifelong poverty, or homeless as a result of this pandemic. However, a pandemic was predictable and bound to happen at some point. The solution for addressing the economic fallout should never, ever have been for citizens to collectively jump on the proverbial grenade by continuing to shop, eat, travel, and live as if nothing is different.

You're right the millions of people losing their jobs and homes have been failed, but it sure as hell isn't on the people who decided it is not worth an unknown health risk to go to the mall or get on an airplane.

Joffrey, Cersei, Ilyn Payne, the Hound, Jeff Jagodzinski, Paul Johnson, Pat Narduzzi.

Initially the risk was unknown and incomprehensible. But now (and I would argue even months ago) there is enough data to begin to understand what the risk is to healthy individuals. Is there a risk, yes, but it is not unknown. It is new and does come with some uncertainty. My frustration is that even after learning the risk is very low to healthy individuals the messaging has remained the same and the fear has continued.

What I feel like you disregard in your opinion on fear and such is how transmissible this disease is, and the effects that it has on the older population. By saying "young people don't die from it therefore we shouldn't be doing such extreme measures" downplays the ease at which this can be transmitted to older folks BY those young people (who will survive!). And so no, as a 25 year old I may not die, but I certainly won't feel comfortable visiting my near 60 year old parents any time soon. Right now it takes the younger folks to help shield the older ones from catching an incredibly contagious, and (to them) deadly disease.

I found this pandemic to be a lesson in how many people are unable to think beyond themselves and how, if it doesn't affect them, they don't care. The data shows that if you're 60+, you're in danger. Well that's a pretty substantial subset of the population to say "well just stay home so the young, healthy ones can continue! Or shop at 6 am on Wednesdays if you really must."

#38-0

And that is certainly your right to choose to not visit your parents. I actually think this pandemic shows how much and how willing people are to think beyond themselves. As I stated the risk is more quantifiable now than it was early on, and the risks are different for 60-75 and 75+.

My parents and in-laws have made the decision that they want to see their children and grandchildren. They are well informed of the risk and they are making their own decisions. So we have been spending time with them and I am thankful for that, because my children have needed their grandparents more than ever throughout this time.

For your parents' sake I hope that your children do not catch COVID at school.

Playing devil's advocate here - couldn't you also argue that it's pretty selfish for a 60 year old ask a bunch of children to settle for a significantly lesser-quality education when they could just restrict the hours they run their errands?

No longer playing devil's advocate, to me, it's pretty simple to compromise:

  • Require masks in public
  • Limit capacity indoors
  • Require essential services to offer dedicated hours for high risk people

Twitter me

It's not as simple as "senior only hours", though that would certainly help some. As soon as schools reopen, grandparents everywhere would be taking a much larger risk by merely spending time with their grandkids, the majority of whom have been mostly isolated from the virus for the last 4 months but will have a much higher chance to be exposed to it in school. And then, that one grandparent who decided the risk was worth it could catch it and spread it to others during the grocery store's "senior only hours". It's not a simple problem. It's never been a simple problem.

Even if the vast majority of the children themselves will be fine, they'd be putting everyone that they interact with outside of school at a much higher risk, and the key question here is whether that added risk is worth the reward of an in-person education.

Most of the messaging I've heard is somewhere between "only the elderly are at high risk" and "if you're young and healthy you should be fine, but you should take precautions A, B, and C to keep yourself from accidentally spreading it to at-risk groups". For most people that are taking things seriously, the "fear" comes from the possibility of being an asymptomatic carrier and passing the disease along to someone who is either elderly or immunocompromised. Reducing your personal risk from "very low" to "negligible" is a bonus.

I think we're talking about slightly different things and I'm really trying not to cross a political threshold here but I think blaming the media for promoting fear is an inherently flawed perspective because ultimately working class Americans are justified in being concerned about their health, job security, spending, and livelihood rather than being obligated to prop up the economy in the face of a global pandemic.

Joffrey, Cersei, Ilyn Payne, the Hound, Jeff Jagodzinski, Paul Johnson, Pat Narduzzi.

I think part of the problem is the definition of terms being used.

When you say " ultimately working class Americans are justified in being concerned about their health, job security, spending, and livelihood rather than being obligated to prop up the economy"

Many see these as stating the same thing twice. While understand that some will see economy as represented as "the stock market". Others will see it as the movement and availability of goods that include food, medicine, fuel, housing, etc.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I do see different things as presented differently in media.

For example the HCQ debate.
Some see it as an evil presented upon the American public for political purposes. It's ability to be used as a therapy was outlawed by decree by governors in a couple of states.

Some see it as a part of a therapy capable of saving lives in particular situations related to the SARS2-Covid-19.

I'm specifically not saying that there is any support/or suppression of any particular political stance.
Disaster Pr$n sells. For and against.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

My comment was related to the US response relative to the rest of the advanced world. We are well below average. If you are worried about the economy, think about the long term damages that have occurred by continually not taking the virus seriously. Every major economist says the economy is tied to control of the virus. For some reason, every other major country seemed to grasp that.

This event will likely be a very large inflection point for the US and their world status. From a global view, it is not a cheery outlook.

I agree the depression and mental illness are important. Best way to mitigate those issues is again with controlling the virus.

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What I still can't get my head around is this "US response"- I'm not being facetious. I live in Maryland. In March we were issued a "stay at home order" by the governor and all retaurants were closed- period. Schools closed, banks closed, canned good ran out, etc etc. The capitol beltway looked like a ghost town. Locked down. How is that different than what they did in Europe? serious question? Is this about "opening up" too soon? I don't get it.

Both my businesses were forced to close.
Beaches were closed. There was no one on the roads.

It seems the only things that were open were no touch gas stations, drug stores, hardware and auto parts stores, some political protests and most grocery stores.

There are people that are still furloughed and have not been to work since March.

People are still afraid to come in to get dental work done.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I -think- the hinsight is that some US states "opened back up to early"? I think that's it. As if Americans have insight on the truth around people going to beaches in europe too. LOL. They look at the numbers and say "stupid americans", cool. My point is what exactly did we do that other countries didn't? Leave it up to states?

they took it seriously.

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I couldn't leave my house except for emergencies and essentials for a month. That's not serious?

I dont know. Do you think enouogh people consider COVID19 a serious issue?

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I think the issue is that some states had governors who were more willing to go to "drastic lockdown measures" and keep them there longer than other states did. In the absence of a coordinated federal response, we got piecemeal policy all over the country. The northeast got clobbered early on, locked down, stayed mostly locked down, and slowly is reopening while other states seemed to say "hey look, the northeast is reopening so we should be able to reopen too since it never even got that bad here", but those states immediately blew past the safeguards in reopening that allowed for things to be phased reopening

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Help me understand your logic here... "x" was your experience, therefore "x" was everyone's experience?

What are you, an engineer? /s

The "American sucks at COVID" argument is getting tiresome. If you take NY and NJ out of our death toll, The US ranking drops below countries like Belgium, UK, Spain, Sweden, and Italy as far as deaths per capita.

If NY and NJ were it's own country, they would be #1 as far as death rate. A solid number one. A large part of the problem in this country is the way COVID hit those two states early on... particularly the nursing care population.

Leonard. Duh.

hahahahaha. Tiresome????
That's rich!!!!!

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Take Milan and the Lombardy region out of the count for Italy and their numbers aren't so bad either.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Belgium, Italy and Sweden have been under 15 COVID deaths/day for the past month. UK is sitting at about 100/day right now (assuming the past two days, which are very low, just aren't all reported yet). US has been at about 1000 a day for the past couple weeks, and the seven day average is climbing. We can do the math on when those curves cross if we want, but the trends aren't good. NY and NJ screwed it up bad early early on, but it's not like we learned our lesson and now it's all roses.

Take a step back and look at the numbers you are using. Forget the math on the curves.....

Belgium, Italy and Sweden have been under 15 COVID deaths/day for the past month.

Those countries combined don't have the same population as the US.

New York was the US earliest onset of cases, that was timed similarly to European outbreaks, and with a population of 9M its more similar in size to Belgium and Sweden...it also is seeing under 15 COVID deaths/day for the past month.

Blindly stating numbers can alter how statistics appear. Nothing to do with how serious or not serious I think covid is and everything to with how serious understanding how to put reported numbers into some sort of context.

(add if applicable) /s

Sure. Normalize deaths/person, it doesn't get better. I'm not "blindly stating numbers." I'm trying to put things in terms of actual magnitude. The OP on this one was saying that he was tired of hearing that the US messed up coronavirus response. I'm saying that his examples, which purported to show that other countries were just as bad, were bad examples, and do not in fact show that.

You want to do New York and Belgium? Similar outbreak time, similar time to stew. New York, 9 million people, 422,000 cases, 32,000 deaths. Belgium, 11.5 million people, 70,000 cases, 9800 deaths.

We can do this all day. Cherry pick and cherry pick.
If you want to do comparason, it's closer to separate European countries out and compare them in turn, to each U.S. state.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

First, scroll up, I was responding to specific claims made about specific countries, that's not me cherry picking. Second, I would also say that if your constant, and apparently only, defense of the US response in the face of specific comparisons is always "That one doesn't count," that I'd go back to your base assumptions and figure out why none of the evidence presented seems to pass muster. And, thrid, and especially confusingly, what you suggest is exactly what I did in the post you're responding to?

This is taking up too much time, and distracting me from stuff I should actually be doing, and, to be honest, it just bums me out, so I'm out. I'd rather spend my TKP time reading about Cole Nelson. If you're insistent on saying that the US response was not below average, after all the evidence presented by various folks in this thread and others already, then I'm not going to convince you with one more post.

One of the difficulties in responding to threads such as this is sometimes a response is made that has to go SOMEWHERE but doesn't really fall anywhere in particular. It can't go at the bottom because by then it's a different topic.

I'll assume My and Yours are in this case.
I was not referring to an individual but that I see cherry picking from many places.

The size of the U.S. and population wise makes it not be able to compare to any region or country in Europe. It's basically comparable in most respects to the whole continent.

Working within the U.S. we have a similar problem. Comparing Los Angeles County, while small geographically would essentially be, from a population perspective, be comparable to the Upper Midwest.

This is important as taken on the whole, it is foolish to want or expect the people in Montana to adhere to the same rules as LA County as it is foolish to wish the people of LA County to follow the rules in Montana.

So, statistics must be used to even have a prayer of a comparison. Then the debate will become "was it a lie or a damn lie".

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Ummm cases not deaths. HUGE difference.

What? Those are death numbers. Our new case numbers are about 50k a day.

Here's some more fun numbers:

In the month of July alone, I'll give you a few locales, and 3 numbers- population, new cases, and deaths, in that order

Thailand - 70 million; 139; 0
Vietnam - 97 million, 191; 2
Netherlands - 17 million; 4,028; 34
Australia - 25 million; 9,069; 93
Canada - 38 million; 12,108; 253
Alabama - 5 million; 49,678; 630
Georgia - 11 million; 105,061; 947
S Carolina - 5 million; 52,716; 973
Florida - 21 million; 317,952; 3,338
Texas - 29 million, 275,757; 4,197

So, maybe you're right...maybe it's not so much that "America sucks at COVID"....instead it's that "America really, really sucks at COVID."

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

I'll start and stop at Thailand. They have run half of the number of tests of South Carolina.
Thailand total tests: 379k
South Carolina total tests: 804k

(add if applicable) /s

What are the positive case percentage with those numbers? If context matters, give the full context.

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A couple weeks ago we had a Saturday reporting with 2250 new cases and 22% positive here in SC.

I mentioned it before in a previous thread with a link, but not sure which thread it was in.

Also should be noted that countries and/or states that have a very high positive rate are unlikely to be testing widely enough to find all cases. It has been suggested that a positive rate between 3-12% should be a general benchmark for adequate testing numbers.

So again, that 22% really illustrates how bad America is sucking at COVID-19

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Just to note, those numbers I used were just for the month of July, not cumulative

Either way, with those positive rates...point made.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Please make your points with relevant/normalized data, you're welcome.

(add if applicable) /s

Thanks. So, based on those percentages, should Thailand test more? And if they did, would they get a lot more positive tests?

No need to answer. These questions are to point out the fallacy that more testing does not equal more cases. More transmission equals more cases and an ability to test enough to see all the transmission equals more identified cases.

(As a side point, and this is general comment related to a previous conversation.. A key example of how the U.S. didn't take this seriously is the amount of misinformation that was spread throughout this country. The more testing equals more cases is one major example of this.)

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Unlikely no, they probably don't need to test more but without the context of percent positive the original numbers are garb and yes so are is my response but I was also making a point.

I believe I've said this in 16 straight threads. Percent Positive is the only way to halfway accurately compare between areas.

(add if applicable) /s

And now with the context, it paints the U.S. as way worse than the original numbers indicate. In other words, those original numbers are "garbage" in the wrong direction.

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Of course that's not the only valid comparison point. Who's getting tested is absolutely a function of number of available tests. If there are tons, you can test more, and will test more borderline cases. You could have two places with equal infection rates, but one is only testing everyone randomly, or testing borderline cases, because they have excess testing capacity and the other is only testing people with severe symptoms. Place 2 will have a much higher positive test rate, but not because they're worse off. They may well become worse off, if they're not catching mildly symptomatic spreaders, but something that can easily be manipulated by a variable that isn't infection rate just can't be your only metric.

Dude, what point are you trying to make? You're nitpicking at data normalization strategies, which is something that is worth considering, but you're completely ignoring the possible sensitivities of the relevant outcomes to what you're saying. We're looking at data that show massive differences (30x) over sample sizes which are different by 2x. The level of wrongness in testing scheme required to make those two line up would be absurd, and there's no reason to believe that it exists. But you're going to stop looking at data there? That's not "pay attention to what the data ACTUALLY says" that's "I don't want to hear it, so I'm going to ignore it."

CDC Percent of Expected Deaths

I do not know how to embed table data from a website, but I like to check this every week or so. It shows that the weekly expected deaths (expected #'s based on 2017-2019 data) peaked at 142% the week of 4/11 (corresponds to NYC peak). This percentage has been steadily declining. The data can lag by as much as 8 weeks, but the trend is clear. Hopefully it continues; I know you think it will go back up, but I'm optimistic that the percentage of expected deaths will continue to approach 100. Overall, for 2020 starting Feb 1, it is at 108%.

Also keep in mind that the total # of covid deaths includes all presumed cases and not strictly lab confirmed cases. Perhaps other countries are being stricter in how the code/count Covid deaths. It could also be that other places have better treatment protocols in place and are using more effective anti-virals than the US. I also do not know what the standard protocol is many other countries, but in the US, most are told to stay home, isolate, and hydrate, and are only receiving treatment and drugs once symptoms become severe. Are other countries treating at the onset of symptoms? This is what I would be in favor of, because it makes the most sense.

the fatigue is real. agreed. it's part of the problem.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

This is a good point, and a good time to point out that no matter where you stand on this, there are some research scientists, public health officials, doctors, virus/epidemiologists who are working their fucking asses off, and definitely running on fumes these days.

I also feel for the school and business leaders who have to wait with bated breath every single day on what steps they can take to reopen, or steps they have to take to back off. That is so stressful.

My hat is off to those dudes.

Leonard. Duh.

On that note, I agree with you.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Unenviable tasks.

The gov't, business, and school leaders have such a huge responsibility on their hands. And there is no right answer. Every decision is guaranteed to have negative effects, many of which are unforeseeable. I think we can all agree that this situation sucks.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

If you take my ass and stomach out of my weight, I wouldn't be overweight.

Yeah... that kind of proves my point.

Leonard. Duh.

I fail to see how it proves anything, since you could say the same thing about most of the countries with big outbreaks.

Absolutely, and other countries treat it this way. Our media does not.

Leonard. Duh.

Maybe the media that you consume does not. Not all media is created equal.

I'm reminded of Plato's allegory of the cave here.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

50+ different plans; no centralized coordination for PPE; gross under use of DPA; conflicting messages and deliberate disinformation to the public; deliberate delays in testing; minimal use of quarantines; political undermining/manipulation of the responses...

If you've ever developed or implemented any kind of large scale emergency response plan; you literally might not do a single thing the federal government/federal leadership did. It's that bad.

yes. process matters. It starts with leadership and buying into the severity of the problem. Then having a national plan to mitigate spread. Encourage and promote all local leaders to take it seriously and further promote serious mitgation stratategies at a state and local. Encourage PPE and maintaining safety. Don't take a stance that it will go away in the summer.
Dont discredit the experts.

It really takes the will of the people to get his done. It starts up top. The mantra should be "Its not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country"

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

Right, which is why I'm guessing that views will change on this around the second week of November. Just a hunch.

We shut down a previous thread that went this route. Don't do this.

good thing i refreshed to see your comment because i was about to shut this one down to (edit: too)

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Talk about a conspiracy theory. That's a doozy.

How is that different than what they did in Europe? serious question? Is this about "opening up" too soon? I don't get it.

Fauci describes it pretty well here:

If you look at what happened in Europe... They shut down to the tune of 95+%. When you actually look at what we did... we really functionally shut down only about 50%.

Both Europe and the US reached a 'plateau' when they stopped their respective shutdowns, however Europe's baseline transmission was far lower than the US at the time they reopened.

There were some states that did it well and others did not. Some followed the baseli

Twitter me

What are the lasting negative effects that Mitchell from AZ is dealing with? The article only mentioned his weight loss and obviously it is taking him a while to recondition and get back in shape and put the weight back on. There were not any specifics given on the Indiana football player's heart issues. There is no information int he article other than an issue that has kept doctors from clearing him for workouts.

It is possible that some percentage of these healthy young men in peak shape will have lasting negative effects. I wouldn't put either of these players in that category just yet. It sounds like they are still recovering from being very sick, but there is not much to suggest that they will have long-term damage. It appears that the Indiana player had the worst symptoms among any of the players that tested positive. I assume all/most of the others have recovered and are doing well?

Young people are going to get Covid and based on all the information we have right now, the vast majority of them, over 99% will recover and be just fine.

I will be curious to hear if Feeney fully recovers and is cleared to play. I certainly hope so!

At the end of the day, each individual has to understand the risks, and make a decision. The problem, IMO, is that a lot college athletes (and other people on the lower end of the socioeconomic ladder) don't have the luxury of making a personal decision, because they rely too much on the scholarship/paycheck.

Twitter me

Whoever is serially downvoting dmcross, knock it the hell off. Nothing posted here warrants it.

I have been giving him upvotes just to counter.

Kings Dominion has announced they will not be opening this year. Most part time staff has been redirected to places like Cedar Point, if they choose.

ESPN. The coverage is excellent, you'd be surprised at how much you can pick up.

Nevermind, I'm dumb.

And for another bit of news from Texas that will surprise no one, Six Flags over Texas is open for business.

https://www.sixflags.com/overtexas

Yup, I actually had a friend who's been there during this since he had a pass and was curios. The mask requirement is basically there must be a mask on your face, maybe. People walking around with them under their chin, not covering their nose, off one ear.

Sounds like Walmart.

State Death Totals per capita

I stumbled across this data today. I found it interesting and was surprised by where many of the states rank relative to the popular headlines.

Sidenote: I was also on the Johns Hopkins site today and they have some nice interactive graphics full of data.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

3 more days of being quarantined. Haven't had any of the symptomsπŸ˜ƒ Brudda is feeling decent he's quarantined until Monday

YEAH HERE WE GO
JUST WATCH HOW WILD IT GETS

EDIT:

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

This seems as if you are suggesting someone here has presented an argument that young children cannot contract this virus.
The simulated magazine lettering seems to be that your stance is that someone presented the case that anyone that things otherwise is part of a conspiracy theory.

Am I wrong in this?

This is going to be great for the ACC.

it's sarcasm lettering from the spongebob meme. it was pretty well talked about around here that kids dont contract and spread the virus at any level worth worrying about, so might as well have schools be open like usual because it won't pose any sort of appreciable threat.

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

1 is a level worth worrying about?

And they did not contract it from school.

1

And he's pretending it's some kind of revelation. There was, as far as I know, no claim that there would be 0 cases.

I was really unaware of this level of concern. no, really. This is not my sarcastic face.
Is 0 cases really the threshold?

Maybe I'm jaded because in the dental industry we are required by law to treat every patient as if they have HIV and so it's normal for me to consider threat levels differently than the general public.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

oh yeah. It's pure sensationalism to highlight that he tested positive after his first day of school. I highly doubt you'd get a positive less than a day after initial exposure. Additionally, there's no way this kid was tested after his first day of school and got the results back this quickly.

Obviously my comment lacked nuance. It is just as ridiculous to say "one kid got it from school, see?" as it is to say "kids can't get it/pass it so open up the schools." The tone of the whole argument is unproductive and stupid, so I adopted an equally immature approach. Unhelpful, I know. I apologize to everyone here and will edit my post to provide context (but not a lot)

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

I understand your post now. Thank you.

I am going to state that the article is an example of the disaster Pr$n I pointed at earlier.

Just to generate ad sales and spin up a certain audience.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

So I just saw the story and decided to post the link. To be sure I in no way meant to kick anything up, just saw the story and figured I would post it.

Is it safe to assume then with the negative legs here that the threshold really is 0?

Or was it that I revealed some truth that by law dentist offices MUST by law treat each patient as if they have HIV.

Feedback please because this is very educational for me.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

This study just measured viral loads in very young symptomatic children. Nothing is indicated as far as transmission.

I used this study above as an example of media sensationalism.

Leonard. Duh.

This links up with some of what I've been reading from medical sources. YOUNG Kids may test positive but are rarely the source of secondary infection.

Because there is infrequent infection there is a maddeningly small amount of data on transmission rates amount young kids.

A family member alerts me that there is some data coming in that is making the rounds in the medical community that children with influenza or rhinovirus need to be paid particular attention. That they seem to be the children that are more susceptible to SARS and SARS2.
No, I have no studies on that, it is verbal among family members in the field.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

For what it's worth, VDH is no longer recommending quarantine after returning from Myrtle Beach. And I just returned from North Myrtle last week. Although I only went into a couple grocery stores and a couple takeout, EVERYONE was wearing a mask.

Link

Does everybody realize the new 2020 quarter has the picture of a bat on the back? It is like the treasury department knew...

Welp.

Good. Far too many people are screwing around with this one. Glad to see Louisville making an example out of them.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

And UNC following up with a "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" quote

At North Carolina, where the football program shut down workouts earlier this summer following an outbreak of COVID-19, coach Mack Brown said he explicitly did not want to know the sources of the spread.

"One thing we're all learning is you've got to trust each other," Brown said last month. "The information I've gotten back, they feel our players have been really honest. We've asked them to. ... We're cautious about asking too many questions to the contact tracing people. We never ask names because we want them to feel comfortable and be honest. If somebody got outside the bubble and made a poor decision, I don't want to know who that is, because if I go yell at them, then they're less likely -- or somebody else is less likely -- to be honest with the tracing people."

It's an unwritten law that it's my lunch pail. I've issued the challenge. If someone outworks me, they can get it.
Darryl Tapp

He has a point though. If a player gets punished too harshly, the next one just might not be as honest about it. A bit of a delicate balance where it needs to be taken seriously but understand we are all human and make some mistakes. I mean the root of all of the distancing measures goes against basic human tendency, so slip ups are to be expected but not encouraged.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

A slip up is forgetting to put on your mask until you're already in the store. A slip up is forgetting to wash your hands after being out and about. A slip up is standing right on someone's shoulder at a check out line, or coming right up to someone's car window to converse, unmasked, in the parking lot. Those are slip ups I can recognize. Heading down to Myrtle Beach for a weekend of fun and games and drinking and partying is not a slip up. That's a concious act. It's downright dangerous, and disrespectful of teammates, coaches and your school in general.
I do agree with being measured in response to this, but perhaps a little tough love should be shown in order to really stop that kind of crap.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Maybe Myrtle Beach is a little more blatant. But, what if you head across town to a friend's cousin's cookout and find yourself amongst 50 people when you were expecting only close family? Do you go home or feel that tug of pressure and invincibility and join the crowd eating ribs?

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

Same same in my mind. You know you shouldn't be there so yes, you leave. I do know that I chose Myrtle Beach for its notoriety in such matters, and I did say there should be some care in punishment taking such occurrences into account, but I guess you can blame a whole lot of stuff on youth, on human nature or whatever you want to use as an excuse for what should be, to my mind, inexcusable behavior. If your world is just you, ok, you're gonna do whatever, but if your families, friends, teammates and coaches aren't important enough for you to recognize and curb detrimental behavior, then somebody's got to start teaching that lesson, since your parents obviously didn't do their job.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

since your parents obviously didn't do their job.

I can promise you good parents all over the world have kids that make dumb decisions.

All I am saying is that the coach expecting 100% flawless compliance may be more of the problem than the solution. Of course that doesn't mean actions don't have consequences, but the punishment should fit the crime.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

All I am saying is that the coach expecting 100% flawless compliance may be more of the problem than the solution.

So the policies that you put in place need to be able to account for less than flawless compliance. I'm not sure that's the case.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

I will agree that parents can't always reach some kids, and we've all made dumb decisions. I should have left that out or gone back and edited it out. Not sure a coach expecting compliance is more of a problem that the solution, though.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

My daughters school decided to cancel all Cross Country practices and meets for the fall.
No reason given. There was in place, I thought, a good plan.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Twitter thread on what a full shutdown would look like.

I thought this was an interesting take. I haven't made sure all the charts and numbers are peer reviewed, so let me know if they are bogus.

I criticize knowing full well I could never do what these athletes do.

Don't post anything non peer reviewed here. You won't like it!

Kudos for having the nuts to post this in this thread. It makes too much sense for anyone to pay attention. Hah.

Where's the beef?

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/510736-students-at-school-sy...

Fourth graders at a school that is part of a system that Vice President Pence visited and lauded for returning to in-person teaching have been asked to quarantine after a student tested positive for COVID-19.

Damn. If only we coulda seen this coming

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Shit didn't know it was that Cunningham family when they had it on the news this morning.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

A good read, that is close to home for many of us:

A Trip To Virginia Beach Showed Why We Aren't Beating This Virus

My family lives in Northern Virginia, and we took a trip to Virginia Beach to see the town, experience the wonders of the ocean again, and just spend some time out of the house. In terms of sights, experiences, food, and more, we got all we could ask for. But in terms of an education on why the US cannot shake the Coronavirus, we learned a lot even though we weren't thinking of this as we headed out.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

I get cussed out all day by people when I ask them to put on their masks.

Reach out to me directly at VT Env Health & Safety

And no surprise there, it's Wally Lancaster with an airball that looked gorgeous on its way to nowhere...
2/15/89, VT vs. South Carolina...

Lee

I knew this group would have resources.

Thanks.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Even better, reach out to Region III Regional Voluntary Protection Programs Participants Association if you want to know if anyone has been able to successfully go through it.

https://www.vppparegion3.org/

Wait, what?

I've been reading through it. It's a giant administrative time suck. The documentation part is a giant waste of time.

Like I need something else on my plate during this whole mess. Awesome.

This is the impression I got.
It is duplication of work already performed at the national level but now I need to do it again, when what I should be doing is improving the program already in place.

It's almost as if they don't want me doing something that can actually produce.

Sorry, short rant.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

"It's almost as if they don't want me doing something that can actually produce."

Not sure about Virginia, but that seems to be standard operating procedure with New Jersey state and (many) local government agencies.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

Presented because it's VT related. It's good to see VT on national media like this, regardless of your opinion on these issues. More exposure and recognition equals better grants for VT.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

seeing that awful logo in the background

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Which mask is most comfortable in 100 degree heat?

this was not the original post. lol.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

Nope.

Do the changes in international travel restrictions help Pene?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2020/08/06/us-state-departmen...

Edit:

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/presidential...

is he a "LPR"?

Q: I am a U.S. Lawful Permanent Resident (LPR) in Europe. Do the March 11 and March 14 Presidential Proclamations prevent me from returning to the United States?
A: No. The restrictions do not apply to U.S. citizens and lawful permanent residents. For the most current information regarding COVID-19, the Presidential Proclamations, and their impact on travel to the United States, please visit www.coronavirus.gov, www.dhs.gov/coronavirus and www.whitehouse.gov/.

Would assume he will have a student visa of some kind.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

This is not a change. This is the way the travel restrictions are setup.

I remember watching an interview with House Representative Crenshaw back when all the travel restrictions went in place and then again after they were modified where he was specific in stating that the citizens and green card holders were allowed to travel to the U.S. It was their legal residence.

Many of the news programs had it wrong.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Former FSU Basketball Player Dies From Heart Attack

This will be interesting to follow in the next couple of days. Former FSU big man, Michael Ojo died from a heart attack on Friday. He had tested positive for COVID19 prior and was considered recovered.

This is not me saying COVID was the cause of the heart attack, but I wonder if they will find a link between the two? I sincerely hope not, but if they do, it would not bode well for the "young people don't get affected by the virus" crowd.

#38-0

Haven't there been a ton of statements that corona leaves damage to the heart? Im pretty sure I've heard that like a dozen times

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Available evidence suggests that's true. It can also cause neurological complications, strokes, etc. We don't know the prevalence of such incidents, though. It can also lead to a very scary condition called MIS-C in children (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/children/mis...). So there is evidence that SARS-CoV-2 primarily attacks the lungs but can also spread to, and damage, other organs.

Heart failure, which is reduction in the ejection fraction of blood, is occurring in several COVID patients. Heart failure over time, if left untreated, often results in heart attack. Heart attack this quickly after infection, however, would suggest that COVID isn't the only fault, but it could have definitely contributed. Perhaps he had some undiagnosed conditions that were exacerbated by the infection. Maybe the autopsy will yield some insight.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

Good thing kids are almost immune.
Like people have been saying, there is more than just infected vs deceased. There are long term implications that are much more difficult to track.

My young kids have not been in a brick-and-mortar store since March. I'm sure there are a lot of people in similar situations. It's no surprise that the total number of infections in young kids is so low....they haven't had nearly the same number of opportunities to catch the disease. I wish people weren't conflating low infection numbers with almost immunity.

And here lies the whole fucking problem with this now damned situation. People are pointing to whatever suits their position regardless of stipulations. Ever since the whole kids argument came up I was irked, nothing said kids are less likely to contract or pass the virus, they just had a lower rate. Of course the part of the population that's been most isolated hasn't had high transmission or case rates. They're stuck at home, can't go anywhere on their own, and are the most controlled of all the population.

Dr. Scott Atlas joining the Coronavirus task force is one of the smartest things this administration has done since March. A cooler head maybe prevailing here.

Also, new study out of Greece of 23 family clusters shows no child to adult transmission, or child to child transmission.

Leonard. Duh.

age of the children?

Not sure, dude. Here's the link, though.

Leonard. Duh.

This study also happened during a lockdown, which complicates the analysis. If there isn't much opportunity for a child to be the initial case, it seems hard to quantify risk. Also, the fact that a higher percentage of children presented with high viral loads and mild symptoms has to be at least a little concerning, assuming viral load correlates with infectiousness.

Also, to quote directly from the study,

However, since the tracing was based on the dates of the PCR test and given that adults present symptoms in a higher proportion than children, it may happen that more adults have been identified first and the positive children were assessed as secondary cases. Therefore, a conclusion about the index case cannot be drawn with certainty and the role of children in virus transmission needs further investigation.

Ah yes, the Neurologist (which is not the same as an Epidemiologist) who described the debate over school reopening as "hysteria" and "ludicrous", who is a frequent participant on one news network alone, is definitely going to be a cooler head.

And I may point out how very on-brand it is for you to ignore the numerous new points of evidence about children transmitting Covid as schools around the US are opening and instead post a sentence about a new study that proves your point.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

Who had Greece in the pool of Nations?

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

It's just nice to see that you guys have missed me over the last few days.

Leonard. Duh.

Here's a study on the widely touted South Korean study. Link.

The SK study showed 97 percent of households with the virus had it brought in by an adults, and most of the other 3% were *shared initial exposures* between adult and child.

The BMJ study uses the SK data set and removes the instances of shared exposure. They found just one pediatric case of child to child familia transmission. A 16 year old who infected a 14 year old sibling.

Leonard. Duh.

Ah yes, the study that quite clearly clarifies their findings by saying that the study was conducted in the context of a lockdown (e.g., schools closed), and that further ongoing studies (such as all the data rapidly become available) need to take place to better understand the transmission between children.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

But wait... this was the study that indicated schools should remain closed. Her Royal Majesty, The Grey Lady said so. I'm confused.

Leonard. Duh.

One more time:

The lack of positive cases in children or significant numbers of transmissions caused by children hasn't magically happened. It has occurred during school closures. Kids do not get nearly the exposure to the virus that the adults in their families do because they are not in school. Therefore, closing schools has been demonstrated to be one of, if not the best preventative measure instituted thus far. Why do you want to undo the one thing that has been the most effective?

The fact that you ignore this point every single time it is brought up tells me that you are not here for honest debate. You are here either to only hear those that agree with you and confirm your set-in-stone opinion or you are a troll.

"Sooner or later, if man is ever to be worthy of his destiny, we must fill our heart with tolerance."
-Stan Lee

"Never half-ass two things. Whole-ass one thing."
-Ron Swanson

"11-0, bro"
-Hunter Carpenter (probably)

Face it. Wingers are gonna wing. No surprise, boringly predictable at this point.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Wow. That's a productive counterargument. I guess you would classify Andrew "NY schools will re-open for in-person instruction this fall" Cuomo as a... "winger"?

Leonard. Duh.

There's "wingers" on both sides. But we're getting way too political at this point.

You are right, and I agree with you, there are wingers on both sides. And they are both predictable.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

You are right, it wasn't a productive argument or anything productive at all. I was just moved to say what I did by the steady drumbeat. I will leg you for calling me out, though I expected it, and I guess I deserve my downvotes as a penalty for my inability to restrain myself. You might be surprised at what I might have said if I'd had a little less of it, though, but probably not.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

i give this post 3 thumbs down.

Well, I give you a leg so you've gotten two of them, sorta, right?

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Fair!

The study indicates that kids do not pass the virus to adults. Isn't that a stone column of the no school debate?

Are the children not at home with their parents?

Leonard. Duh.

We already know that even small children can pass the virus to adults. They are just much less likely to do so the younger they are...especially under 10.

This about life/death risk for some people and quite frankly, those of us without school-aged kids in our lives should have little voice in the debate. Who am I to tell Fireman what kind of risks he and his fam should undertake; or any teacher or other school system employee for that matter?

Here is a blog from University of Michigan Health, from 23 hours ago, I've copied and pasted the most important line in the whole thing for you

None of the available data so far is sufficient enough to conclude whether children may drive COVID-19 transmission, according to Tribble

Tribble is Alison Tribble, MD, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at Michigan Medicine CS Mott Children's Hospital.

Please stop proclaiming that kids don't spread it. Cause you don't know that, no one knows that. There have been studies that suggest they might not, there have been equal numbers of studies that suggest they might.

https://healthblog.uofmhealth.org/childrens-health/why-relationship-betw...

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

I'm not proclaiming kids don't spread it. I'm not a virologist. I couldn't possibly make such a proclamation. I'm just proclaiming what you just stated. There are many studies that conclude they really don't, and I attempt to push back on the media driven panic that some many people are being consumed by. There is plenty of work to be done, for sure. My only proclamation is the risk to shutting down schools is greater than the risk of not, if only because we can actually see with our eyeballs the detriment of a lack of education and socialization for children... which is really just repeating what the CDC head honcho has been saying. I just don't believe we should full on cancel school because of 145 nasal swabs of symptomatic 3-5 year olds in a lab.

Leonard. Duh.

here are many studies that conclude they really don't

You were so close! I'll finish it

here are many studies that conclude they really don't and there are as many studies showing that they really do

I'm a parent of a school age kid (1st grader to be exact), I want him back in school as much as the next parent, BUT with as much unknown as there still is, I wouldn't be sending him back to one of those schools in a county like the one in Georgia we've all seen circulating.

Frankly, IMO, if someone doesn't have school aged children, or work in a school, I don't take their opinion for much on the matter. I can only assume they want schools to reopen so the parents can get back to work, and I'll stop there before I tread in to politics.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

I never stopped working.
My wife started back to work months ago. May IIRC.
We want school open for our daughters.

There. Now you know someone that will not be impacted work-wise by our daughter's school not opening.
I fear for the loss of the time of education loss for my daughters as it's not something that can be recovered.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Fair, and I appreciate your opinion. I didn't say mine was the only right one.

I want school open for my son too, when it is proven to be safe to do so. Proven...not suggested by a handful of studies that say one thing, when there is an equally sized handful of studies that suggest the complete opposite.

Yes he is missing out right now, but can you imagine, if he goes back to school, does catch it, and does pass it along and ends up killing grandma? A lifetime of questioning whether he was responsible is far worse than missing out on a couple months of in person teaching.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

You kind of are though. The number of "the study says kids don't pass it" statements in this thread alone is off the charts. And you're ignoring the paragraph in each of the studies that explains that might not be what we're seeing. Every time. And you're ignoring people pointing it out. Every time.

"We didn't see it, and here are some reasons we might not have" is not a study showing that something doesn't happen. Didn't and doesn't are different things. Either you're bad at reading scientific papers, or you're trolling (or both, I guess). Either way, maybe actually read the entirety of the stuff that you're posting, and really digest it, before posting about it and then doubling down a dozen times.

EDIT: I moved it so this post appears even less to be a response to a particular person, which it emphatically is not.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Please point to the studies that I've posted that actually indicate that kids are good vectors for transmission, and I've "proclaimed" that it shows the opposite.

And, I'll ask the question... Is the head of the CDC wrong to "proclaim" that keeping kids out of school is more dangerous than re-opening?

Leonard. Duh.

What? Read through what I wrote again. I at no point said that you entirely flipped the results of any study. I said you ignored any and all nuance if it didn't fit what you wanted it to. Which I feel like this might be a good example of.

And no, if that's what he thinks, there are definitely costs to not having people in schools. It's his job to weigh options and make recommendations, and that should carry a lot of weight. He has also said that things should be different in hotspots, which, when he said it (article is from 7/24), would have included parts of 33 states, and certainly some zones that have had well-publicized re-openings since then. So again, maybe you're flattening some nuance in what he said.

Link for quote:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/cdc-director-concedes-schools-i...

So a doctor that works at a think tank who doesn't even practice anymore and has no experience in epidemiology. Sure sounds like a great addition.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Kind of like Dr. Fauci... who hasn't treated a patient in like 30 years.

Leonard. Duh.

Dr. Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseses for the last 30+ years is the same as Dr. Atlas, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institute (a think tank)?

A guy with 50 years of experience working on infectious diseases is the same as a guy who has 12+ years of experience in Neuroradiology (and specifically MRIs)?

Where do you draw that conclusion from?

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

There are horrible comparisons, then there is this comparison. Really takes the cake

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Here's Fauci gearing up to treat an Ebola patient but okay.

The Orange and Maroon you see, that's fighting on to victory.

how do you expect this statement be taken seriously?

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Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

The Dr Fauci who has been the recipient of serious threats that have been also been leveled at his family? The one whom right wingers just outright hate...because...? That same Fauci who's an internationally recognized...oh hell, why even try?

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Well, got more details about our daughter's school opening. One area that I would do a lot tighter, but I think that if all schools did this, things could work. Alas, she is at a regular parish Catholic school (K-8). Probably not feasible for large public schools to pull off given the number of students and, unfortunately, a lot of parents not doing their job if they are not paying for school out-of-pocket.

(1) School is open full time for those who want to go in-person.
(1a) Child who goes in has their temperature taken at home and must be feeling well and no temperature
(1b) Child who goes in gets their temperature taken at the door and must still be okay then
(1c) Kids enter different doors by grade to stay somewhat separate
(2) Web cameras set up in each classroom - those who are uncomfortable going back in-person can do remote learning.
(3) "Sneeze shields" around every desk. These are those plastic tri-fold U-shaped things that will go around each desk. Desks have been spaced out in the classrooms to add space for shields and between desks.
(4) Kids are supposed to wear masks except for break times inside their shield or when eating or at outside recess - supposed to social distance outside, but not sure that is going to work. Initially thought they would not need to wear masks at all when at their desks inside the shield, but apparently they are supposed to most of the time there.
(5) Students will stay in their homeroom and the teachers of different subjects will switch rooms. Some things like science lab, technology lab, or gym can't work this way, so I am not sure how that will be handled.
(6) Will have lunch room open with hot lunches. This is the 1 thing I would say should not be the case. Would have made it that you have to bring your own lunch in and try to have it in the classrooms or maybe spread out in something like the gym. Say things will be spread out, but I am not sure it will work.
(7) Will have outdoor recess. Not sure I would allow this. Would rather they have quiet time to read or do homework, but if people obey the rules, should be okay. Emphasis on the obey rules (insert WVa governor comment)
(8) Band practice will be 100% remote.
(9) Will have aftercare but people will be spread out. I think we will not have her do aftercare.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

6 - this means the kids will be congregating in the cafeteria to eat? It would make so much more sense to have some form of delivery to the classrooms.

8 - this is going to work just about as well as having the conductor at one end of a football field and the rest of the band scattered throughout the stadium. Latency is going to make this pretty much impossible.

Yeah 6 bugs me. One of the kids on her swim team - who goes to a different but also modest sized Catholic school in southern NJ - has the lunch room closed down. I had expected that here too.

Edit: they actually have had remote band practice for a while. Seems to do okay. I'm sure it is not as good as in-person though. Everyone playing their parts while on a Zoom meeting is probably not the best, but better than nothing. I have 0 musical talent, so can't say much. Guessing you have way, way more.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

On the band thing, it's K-8, so it probably has less of an impact than it would for more advanced grades. That young, there's probably already quite a bit of variation in tempo with in person practice, so the effect wouldn't be AS noticeable. It's more about getting reps in and being familiar with the instrument, so it's important that they've found a workaround to still make band instruction feasible, if not ideal. High school or college, much bigger problem in the short run, but after you've played a few years, it's easier to come back to after a hiatus.

Spot on. I switch instruments several times over my musical "career", but the basics were what made that possible.
Edit: And practice. At home or wherever, practice is as important or even more so, as in person instruction in the early days of learning to make music of any sort.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

My eldest is doing Zoom piano lessons.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Web cameras set up in each classroom - those who are uncomfortable going back in-person can do remote learning.

This one is really hard to make work. We tried this for training initially at work and you essentially need a second instructor or facilitator to maintain/manage the stream participants. Otherwise they will get no meaningful feedback to questions and such. If there is a teaching assistant or something to do this it can work, but having a single instructor doing it all went terribly every time we tried it. The experience of both in-person and remote students suffered greatly.

Note: i know people are trying to do their best with a tough situation and this might be the best that can be achieved in the current circumstance.

edit: my notes are in the context of an interactive class. In the case of just a lecture, it works fine.

I think it is mostly lecture. But I had not even thought of that issue of feedback from people being remote. Guess you really do want someone monitoring if there are online questions and it will break up the flow with the teacher checking every few minutes. Few, if any, classes have an aide. There are 2 6th grade classes. I wonder if it would work better with one teacher doing the remote and one doing the in-person? I want to say all K-8 levels are split into 2 groups (i.e., 6a and 6b) now. Maybe there is only one 7th or 8th grade though. Her year is one of the largest.

Guess we just have to see how it goes ... if it goes, that is.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

Not a parent, but I think recess is super important. Also think the risk outdoors is significantly lower than indooors.

Twitter me

I agree.
I am of the opinion that being outside is, in nearly all cases, much better than inside , as well as decrease depression AND has the added benefit of allowing naturally produced Vitamin D, which has been seen to help in the current situation.

Natural breezes and UV sunlight and entropy as opposed to recycled air.

The more time spent outdoors the less the viral load in case there is exposure.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Very similar situation and precautions being taken here. No cafeteria in our case, lunches will be eaten in the classrooms. Those opting for remote learning will be operating on a different schedule than those in-person. So instruction can be properly delivered to just those that are in-person or those that are remote. A challenge for the staff, but they seem to have a plan.

We have to use an app and answer daily screening questions about our child's potential exposure. Things like, has your child presented with symptoms, has your child been knowingly exposed to someone with Covid in last 14 days, etc. etc.

They're giving it their best effort, and we shall see what happens. Our kid is pumped for school, but we are also trying to prepare him emotionally for the day we tell him that he cannot go because someone at the school is sick.

The problem with using an app or making parents take temperatures at home is that its a useless exercise. How many parents in the past have gone to work sick because they can't afford to miss a day? How many parents have sent a kid that is marginally sick to school so they don't have to stay home and miss a day of work they cant afford? Do we think that will change? Those folks pushing for full in person instruction so they can go to work, aren't going to keep their kids at home.

Then what happens if a kid has a positive test and is supposed to quarantine, along with the whole classroom and their immediate families? Parents will break quarantine because they can't afford not to work. That just leads to more cases.

I would be surprised if we make it a month without schools in NY being closed. Cases will rise, and that will cause the closures to forestall things getting out of hand again.

Good Medcram yesterday,

Discussed from 30,000 ft the immune system from a virus response standpoint that can clear up some misconceptions being put out in news.
Also, discussion of masking studies, a comparison of the Diamond Princess and an Argentine Cruise ship. Not 100% applicable but some good numbers out of it anyway. Also, masks on hampsters. Very interesting and nicely explaining the possible real world meaning.

COVID-19 Pandemic Update 101: T Cell Immunity vs. Antibodies & Prior Exposure to Other Coronaviruses

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I am going to reply to my own comment here as I had a couple minutes at lunch and wanted to see if I could find more on the cruise ship situations.

I did not.
However I did find this recent publication of a nice mask material study.

We tested 14 commonly available masks or masks alternatives, one patch of mask material, and a professionally fit-tested N95 mask (see Fig. 2 and Table 1 for details). For reference, we recorded control trials where the speaker wore no protective mask or covering. Each test was performed with the same protocol. The camera was used to record a video of approximately 40 s length to record droplets emitted while speaking. The first 10 s of the video serve as baseline. In the next 10 s, the mask wearer repeated the sentence "Stay healthy, people" five times (speech), after which the camera kept recording for an additional 20 s (observation). For each mask and for the control trial, this protocol was repeated 10 times. We used a computer algorithm (see Materials and Methods) to count the number of particles within each video.

Research Article Low-cost measurement of facemask efficacy for filtering expelled droplets during speech

Science Advances 07 Aug 2020:
eabd3083
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abd3083

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Sadly I've been guilty of wearing one of the worst types of masks (neck gaiter). I ordered new ones last night when I learned. It looks like a lot of NCAA teams (VT included) are using the neck gaiter style as well which can be worse than not wearing a mask...yikes!

a lot of people find them much more comfortable so, I can understand the attraction.
As an aside, it's better at hiding identifying tattoos of the face and neck.

A couple guys I know wear them because they already had them for hunting and cold weather outdoorsing.

I think I'm good with rotating my UV sterilized sanitized surgical masks.

editied: to fix it for myself.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

it's not just the style/design but the material that counts. This study examined a "neck fleece." I use a gaiter composed of microfibers, which would presumably have very different results than what is published here. The VT engineer in the post above has recommended microfibers over cotton.

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Neck fleece equals a microfiber neck gaiter if you look in the picture.

hmm..., it doesn't look like fleece, you're right. Material still matters (and probably more than design) so understanding that nuance would be more informative.

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I've been wearing a balaclava with one big hole for the face but with my head coming out of it and I pull my head through the hole.

Am I dead already?

About children and increases in coronavirus infections...
Time

And these new cases are likely infections from before the start of school in most instances. Imagine what will happen when all these kids get together again in buildings...

No, I *don't* want to go to the SEC. Why do you ask?

We don't love dem Hoos.

One issue that I've consistently had difficulty accepting is how the COVID-19 death count is tabulated. Basically, from what I understand, if COVID-19 is listed anywhere on the death certificate, not necessarily as a primary cause of death, but as a possible contributing cause, it's counted as a COVID-19 death. If true, we should see shrinking death counts of other common causes or we double counting (i.e. a person died with late state cancer, bronchitis, and COVID-19 [in that order]) and a count was added to the cancer deaths AND COVID-19.

Question 1) is this true?

Question 2) if true, how does this do anything other than to push a narrative and veer from objectivity?

Question 3) since we're comparing the US to other countries, do we know if other countries are using the same methodology and if not, no true apples to apples comparison can be made.

I talked to a cousin who is a cardiac nurse in a large hospital, and he explained that there are (something to the effect of) primary, secondary, tertiary, and contributing causes of death. For example, influenza is almost never the primary cause of death. Usually you'll get something like (and I'm going on memory from a two-month-old conversation) primary cause is bronchitis or pneumonia with influenza either a secondary cause or contributing factor. Would the bronchitis had killed the patient without the severity amped up by the flu? Most likely not, as we can treat/cure bronchitis rather easily. But while the flu wasn't the primary cause, it was the driver behind the death, as the patient wouldn't have likely been dead without the flu's interaction.

That's similar to what is playing out with COVID. Your cancer example isn't the greatest example, but is it possible that the bronchitis which ultimately killed the cancer patient would've been cured without COVID making it much, much worse? Yes. Would the cancer patient eventually have died from some other infection? Most likely, as the treatment for cancer absolutley decimates the body's defenses. Should this be tracked as a COVID death? Borderline, but if COVID led to an earlier death than would have happened without having COVID, then I can see an argument.

Bottom line, as with influenza, it's sometimes really hard to parse out what the ultimate cause of death is, given that both viruses seem to strengthen other respiratory infections to the point that they kill where they normally wouldn't. A consistent methodology would definitely be prudent, to ensure you're not comparing apples to oranges, but that methodology, if different, would need to be applied retroactively to influenza counts in prior years for comparisons (if one were interested in comparing this to the flu, which many seem to be).

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

I am wondering if, even within the same state and within the U.S. the measurement standard is well defined and well followed.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

So we ARE, in effect, making all deaths WITH COVID-19 as deaths FROM COVID-19?

This seems to be a bigger deal to me and something that needs defined than I'm noticing with most others.

If an asymptomatic person dies with COVID-19 is it put in the death certificate? In all cases or just some? If its put on there is it counted as a COVID-19 death?

If so, this doesn't seem to be the normal route for making cause of death decisions. Why move the goalposts?

If they were asymptomatic, how did they die? I would be willing to bet that coroners aren't taking car crash or shooting victims, testing them for COVID, and marking that down as the cause of death.

Or are they?

This is just one of many instances that have actually made the news because they just couldn't be ignored.

That is interesting and should be investigated further. However, it sounds like that initial decision was made in error, which tells me that they shouldn't be.

In any case, it's pretty clear that we're seeing an increase in death in this country, currently around 150,000 "excess deaths" since March:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Interesting to note that the Swine Flu resulted in only about 15,000 excess deaths, a tenth as much as we've seen so far from COVID.

If COVID affected the mortality of the prime cause of death, then yes, COVID would be a contributing factor, or secondary cause, or whatever. As it should be.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

I 100% agree with you, but my concern is where those secondary causes or contributing factors are being represented as a COVID-19 death. To me, a COVID-19 death infers that covid was the primary cause, not some "also ran".

Shouldn't the death toll reports only include the primary cause. Or at least provide a clear disclaimer that the data includes cases which include COVID-19 as a contributing factor?

what percentage of deaths do you think are an "also ran"?

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Not sure, but according to this article Colorado was pushing upwards of 25% above what should have been reported.

This link to CDC guidance spells it out. One doesn't need to have even been tested for COVID-19 to be considered a COVID-19 death.

Another one

And I don't see how you can report on anything other than what is the primary cause. All of the individual causes of death over a given period of time should add up to the total number of deaths. Otherwise, it would seem like there were substantially more deaths taking place than ate actually occurring.

From the CDC guidance that you link to:

In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as "probable" or "presumed." In these instances, certifiers should use their best clinical judgement in determining if a COVID–19 infection was likely. However, please note that testing for COVID–19 should be conducted whenever possible.

The number of cases where a "definitive diagnoiss of COVID-19 cannot be made" has to be a vanishingly small number of cases. It's a disease we can test for. "Whenever possible" covers almost every case. The Colorado thing was from May, which was *checks notes* a while ago. If there isn't a more recent version of a similar issue, presumably they've fixed their reporting issues. If you're saying they've been lying since then, say it. If you're just implying, maybe don't without evidence?

Also, if you're implying that COVID deaths are being reported differently from flu deaths, say it. Otherwise, maybe don't without evidence? If this is being reported like every other infectious disease (it is), then take issue with all infectious disease reporting, and explain why you're doing it. This half-ass, vague, by implication nonsense doesn't help anybody understand anything. Say what you're saying. If you can't say it flat out, then fucking don't.

The tone of your response is completely unnecessary.

Statistically and by the law of averages, 25% is a near impossibility. An "also ran" by its definition means having COVID but dies of a completely different reason. And thus by definition, since it is just by chance, it would match the percent of people that have had COVID. Right, a death and by chance having coronavirus would match the chance of any individual having coronavirus.

If we take the number of reported cases 5M and the U.S. population 382.2M, you would determine that 1.3% of the population has been confirmed to have coronavirus. So, the likelihood of someone dying also having by chance COVID, would be the same or near 1.3%. Thus 25% is impossible.

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No, they shouldn't report only the primary cause. If COVID was a secondary or contributing factor, and caused the primary cause (say, pneumonia) to be lethal where it normally wouldn't be, then it definitely should be counted as a COVID death. That's the point.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

If the person dies of pneumonia due to COVID, it would be the underlying cause of death. Pneumonia would be the immediate (or intermediate) cause of death. At least, that's how I understand it from this CDC pamphlet.

See the examples. They don't use primary or secondary.

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I think that primary/secondary terminology was just how I internalized what was being explained to me re: immediate/underlying.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Good post. Not a lot of people understand comorbidity.

No, I *don't* want to go to the SEC. Why do you ask?

We don't love dem Hoos.

Not a lot of people understand comorbidity.

He used that term, I remember that now. ;^)

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Edit: this is one of those times a comment has to go somewhere and this is just where it is placed, not designed as a direct response to the poster above, just here because it's relevent to this part of the thread.

It is interesting to see how the public has shifted it's stance in the past few months.

In March it was 15 days to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed, flatten the curve.

then it became mask up, stay in the house, don't go to the beach, don't kill grandma.

Today we are at if you have a meeting at your house, we will cut off your water and electricity
and prove kids aren't transmission sources before schools can open.

Absolutely fascinating to watch.
I'm staying flexible to see where this goes next.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Today we are at if you have a meeting at your house, we will cut off your water and electricity
and prove kids aren't transmission sources before schools can open.

No. That's what Italy and others did in March while we were busy pretending it wasn't an issue. Even now, many states and localities still aren't even enforcing the basic "restrictions" that they've put in place.

Check Mayor Eric Garcetti, Los Angeles.
But I did not post to get in the weeds about specific he said she said stuff. I posted about the widely spaced shift in goals and actions as they drifted from March to now..

This is going to be great for the ACC.

All fair points.

But that brings up a factor that I think is the biggest reason we're having this issue in the first place: the widely spaced difference in goals and actions from one state/locality to the next. There isn't any sort of unified plan for the nation, and there are also no interstate travel restrictions that I am aware of (besides the occasional "stay at home" recommendations) to keep it from spreading from one area to another.

Goals have changed because the magnitude of the problem has changed. I would guess that goals and actions have shifted logarithmically just like the virus numbers.

"Sooner or later, if man is ever to be worthy of his destiny, we must fill our heart with tolerance."
-Stan Lee

"Never half-ass two things. Whole-ass one thing."
-Ron Swanson

"11-0, bro"
-Hunter Carpenter (probably)

At least choose events/actions that are comparable instead of cherry picking random unrelated things.

In March, schools shut down when there were significantly fewer cases because spreading the virus was too risky.

Today the virus is far more widespread but it's safe to fully open schools back up.

Joffrey, Cersei, Ilyn Payne, the Hound, Jeff Jagodzinski, Paul Johnson, Pat Narduzzi.

I dont know man, maybe if people took this seriously at the beginning the messaging your hearing wouldn't need to be quite so harsh now.

...and we wouldn't have to be in this situation in the first place...

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

Exactly, like was said in the other thread. If we really wanted our kids back in school this fall, then America shoulda tightened the fuck up in March instead of acting like it is the flu.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

prove kids aren't transmission sources before schools can open.

If you're referring to my post above, I did not say I want it proven that kids arent transmission sources. I want it proven that they can safely go back to school

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

What are your metrics for proving that?

Leonard. Duh.

likely to be different than yours...

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I think the key metric for any opening should be:
"Will opening this school/business/place of worship/etc. generate an increase in the rate of cases that my current testing protocols, contract tracing, and quarantine rules can no longer keep up with?"

If the answer is no, you can open.

If the answer is yes, you shouldn't open.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

Chill out people. A mask can't help these folks.

Shep7777

Seems like a good chance to try this out...

Do we know if someone tests positive for ANY drugs/alcohol in their system if it's being counted toward these numbers? Can we be 100% sure that every hospital and state is reporting these deaths in a consistent and proper manner?

I've never heard a satisfactory answer to these questions so we should probably just assume the numbers are being wrongly reported or tampered with and can't be trusted.

Joffrey, Cersei, Ilyn Payne, the Hound, Jeff Jagodzinski, Paul Johnson, Pat Narduzzi.

All statistics are meaningless unless they "prove" a point you're trying to make.

Interesting phrasing... statistics are a field that cannot ever, ever, actually prove anything.

Hence the use of quote marks.

My bad, didn't even notice. I see your point now :D

Question. If it's suicide by drug overdose, does it count towards both numbers?

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Jeez I hope so

I'm not entirely certain what you're trying to say here, but I'm pretty sure it's wrong.

OP makes a good point. Masks won't help them, because they died three years ago.

What point are you trying to make? Is it that we've already had more deaths by COVID this year than all of 2017 for all of those death causes combined? Because that's a good point, and we should definitely wear masks to help future folks not be dead.

https://www.wdbj7.com/2020/08/12/blacksburg-town-council-passes-ordinanc...

As WDBJ7 previously reported, these stricter guidelines will impact local businesses heavily and come with a penalty for those who choose not to follow the following:

-All food establishments must close by midnight

-Indoor business capacity is limited to just 50 percent of maximum occupancy

-Gatherings are limited to no more than 50 people

-All people must wear masks when out in a public setting

Suspects who violate the ordinance are subject to a Class 4 Misdemeanor and $250 fine.

Copyright

This is going to be interesting for the town and students. It can't be enforced on campus as far as I know but the minute you step off its on.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..