Recent Comments
Wolf, these get better every week. Awesome bud!
I admit, I may be wearing rose-colored glasses issued by the ACC, but I don't think that any league schools want to leave. I think it would a tremendous amount of money to lure away Florida State or Clemson - more than what the SEC would be willing to offer.
Just look at how this went down. The ACC circled the wagons and kept this very hush-hush. The fact that this wasn't leaked until the day before Pitt and Cuse were accepted is very telling. It shows a lot of trust within the ACC and very little within the Big East. I would argue that if an ACC member was interested in bolting, they would've let this story get out to possibly derail it. And the fact that Pittsburgh and Syracuse didn't tell a soul makes them look like 2 soldiers planning a daring escape from a POW camp.
Sure, the SEC is probably still interested in ACC schools. I would argue that we're still the most attractive university for #14. But the ACC schools have said, "Thanks, but no thanks" enough times to the SEC, and the surprise expansion shows them we're serious.
Like the possibility their program may get bombed into rubble by the NCAA.
First of all, I definitely didn't see this coming, but the media should have. Yahoo! Sports certainly can't break every story and ESPN seems content to only report on the SEC, Dallas Cowboys, and Red Sox/Yankees happenings. I really like the move and I would like to see UCONN added because I think they are a similar fit (basketball, geographically, academically), but I think Rutgers would be a big mistake as they don't add anything athletically. I agree with VTJawo that FSU and Miami would throw a fit if they were in the same football divisions, even if it makes geographic sense. I wonder if the ACC would consider having two sets of divisions. One set of divisions for basketball and football, where you can afford to have teams flying from Boston to play in Miami every year. The other set would be for the non-revenue sport that would be broken up geographically. I know this is pretty unlikely, but I like it because then VT doesn't get stuck having a football schedule with UCONN, UVA, UMD, and the rest of the nobodies every year. Finally, I doubt any school would want to leave the ACC now that they have raised the exit fee to $20 million. Even the eventual riches of being an SEC contender year in and year out would sort of be negated by this initial loss. Also, something has to be said for the fact that both the increase in the exit fee and the voting to accept Pitt and UCONN were done unanimously.
Is there a possiblility that some school(s) could still leave for other conferences? Could the SEC suck in an ACC school? I think the likelihood has gone down for the short term. With FSU's loss last Saturday it shows they are not really back. I think that would make them want to stay in the ACC. Basically the same arguments as VT, why become a middle of the pack SEC team when you could always be in the mix for a BCS bowl in the ACC? ACC would now have to lose more than two teams to dismantle. I think that reduces the risks to the conference going forward. A lot of people, including the media, did not see this coming. It was not in any prognosticator's vision of where conference realignment was headed. The shakeout over the next few months will be interesting. I think it raises the ACC's profile a lot. I think this is the year of the ACC for a football NC. It is all falling into place.
but i think it's more of an if/when situation. i give rutgers 75 until uconn says yes, then i drop them below 50 as they don't REALLY bring the NYC market any more than uconn does. i give PSU 5 until ND says yes or no, then it goes up to 50 or down to 1. i'd have started WVU lower, as there is no chance duke/unc (the real signal callers in this bball expansion, obviously) are willing to go to morganhole for much of anything. might have started vandy a little higher, as i think an expanded SEC leaves them wanting something more than getting pounded in football every week.
It was about 2 weeks ago when I posted the original message and so far, two of the teams I suggested the ACC look into have joined the conference. It seems likely that two more teams will join in the coming days or weeks. Who will they be? I still think academics is a major factor and so is basketball so here is my list and probability that each team will join..
UConn - 85%. Solid academics and basketball. They are still new to the FBS level but have put together good teams in the past few years.
Rutgers - 75%. Brings in the NY market which can't hurt.
Notre Dame - 40%. Seems like a stretch but I think they realize now how times are changing and a new 4 superconference system could leave them on the outside. They still have pull due to a large fanbase but Brian Kelly has made comments recently on how being independant means they get very few chances for easier games. Personally, I think they go to a conference and it is down to the ACC and Big Ten. This would be a huge land for the ACC in terms of TV/money.
WVU - 25%. Football and basketball make this an attractive school but academics may keep them from the ACC. Plus, something tells me they won't get Tech's vote due to concerns over playing in Morgantown.
Navy - 25%. Tradition and gives a stronger grasp on the Mid-Atlantic. Under the radar right now but I still think it is a good option.
Louisville, Cincinnati, Temple, ECU and USF - 10%. These teams only end up in the ACC if all other options fail.
Penn St. - 5%. It is hard to imagine they leave the Big Ten but the east coast market could be attractive. Adding Pitt, Syracuse and either UConn or Notre Dame only help to enhance the overall outlook for the ACC. Add to the fact that the Big Ten may be left to add teams like Kansas St and Iowa St, and the ACC starts to look better in terms of academics and travel.
TCU and Texas Tech - 3%. They will only come if they come together. Part of me thinks the ACC has two northern teams and now may look south. TCU just joined the Big East and may be up for grabs. If so, the ACC can offer Texas Tech as well to enter into the Texas market.
Vanderbilt - 1%. If academics are being pushed, Vandy could be offered. It doesn't bring in much in terms of football but Vandy could see it as a chance to enter into a conference where a chance to win more is possible. Highly unlikely but that's why I have it at 1%!
Most of this is nonsense and the chances of it happening would shock many. I think the ACC ends up with Rutgers and UConn which leads to a seat at the megaconference table. Right now, that's the most important thing the ACC can do.
thanks for the inclusion of that article from pitt. don't know how much i believe them, as i highly doubt the current ACC has any care for who pitt or cuse want, but some good insight as to how this might have all gone down.
i don't think the ACC jumps at rutgers or uconn though. while i think uconn is the dream of duke/unc, i really don't see anyone else getting that excited over it. expect the acc to wait and see who else moves before going to 16, as there really isn't any long term effects to holding out hope for ND. if/when other big schools start getting snatched up, then watch us move. until then, i believe them when they say they're happy at 14.
but i agree WVU and ECU have no chance. WVU could maybe make a sports case, but not anywhere near the academic level required by the ACC brass. ECU is barely a football school, with little in the way of academics or other sports to make the move worthwhile. also, not so sure other NC schools would jump at the idea of recruiting against ANOTHER ACC memeber. just seems like too long of a shot.
with that said, i don't know where USF ranks to the higher-ups. if it comes down to it, i think they're my #2 behind notre dame, as all i'm really interested in is another football-minded school. granted, they're going to be done once skip holtz gets stolen, but he's good there for at least another year or so, especially if the ACC reaches out and picks them up. could be a solid addition if all the superconference speculation really does go down, as we'll need SOMEONE else who can play football, considering most of our prospects are basketball-minded institutions (or non-sports, like rutgers. yuck).
Nice post joe. I never thought that Penn State would even be on the menu until reading this. Who knows how probable it is of course. The ACC really has to add at least one school that improves our FOOTBALL standing. ND,WVU,PSU would obviously do this. Even just one and then a Rutgers/UConn would be a huge improvement over the thought of 2 lower tier Big East teams.
Dont have the academic level that the ACC wants. Not sure about USF...
I wouldn't mind seeing ND added. They've been stealth in this whole thing, and may be holding out for the BigTen*, but the ACC could be a fit because of their tie with the big least.
Dumping huge amounts of $$$ into upgrading facilities because of the Big 12 agreement after last year, and now they may be left standing when the music stops. This could put them in a huge financial hole, with no tv money, bowl split, extra revenue coming in. Think of how many schools are getting the shaft because of tv contracts and football money, while the normal students may lose out in the long run.
The only reason i'm ok with the move is that we aren't going to see the ACC getting pillaged by other conferences and possibly left on the outside looking in. I'm not a huge fan of the schools added, but not hating it either. It makes sense to add 2 schools that link BC to the rest of the conference i guess. But i don't like the thought of being banished to the north if it ends up that way. I'm pretty sure everyone here doesn't think of Blacksburg as a northern town, and not a fan of always traveling north in the winter either. I agree with lots here about playing in the southeast where college football is a bigger deal. I have read that Rutgers or UConn would help solidify the northeast for our fan base, but i really don't think there is much of a college FOOTBALL fanbase up there. They are much more into professional sports.
I'm still positive though. If this is just a way to get our foot in the door for some bigger schools than it'll end up being a very smart move. I don't want Rutgers or UConn though. WVU and ND would of course be great if we can get them. Wonder if they are also thinking about USF or ECU?
I know the SEC would be sweet for us, but with all schools voting to increase the exit penalty to $20M do you see anyone leaving at all?
is NOT driven by football. The only conference that isn't. They are getting sound bites from Coach K, Roy Williams and even Calhoun. Football is second fiddle in Carolina, basketball is king. They are looking basketball more than football, and the Cuse and Pitt (as well as UConn) bring a nice resume with them. They just happen to lay football...
The super conferences will force fewer match-ups with FCS schools. This will hurt their revenue and could have ripple effects on their sports programs.
With all of the shifting, changing, moving, adding, growing....
Does this make it easier for the NCAA to put stricter sanctions on the U?
With a mega-conference, it's easier to hurt one of 16 instead of 1 of 8 or 12.
With the buyout times, lead requests and everything changing over the next 2 years anyway, it wouldn't be a huge deal to see Miami hit with 30 less scholarships next year or something similar.
This was basically my same perception. After we built a big lead the focus also seemed to slip. I think the team is a little bored with playing lesser competition and will get fired up for the more challenging games. I thought they played well enough but need to finish offensive drives with a strong statement.
Somehow I doubt that Miami and FSU will be put in the same pod/division, geography be dammed. As the two "premiere" football schools will want both to succeed, not one or the other. I could be wrong, but I highly doubt a North/South or Blue/Grey divisions; I would expect to see "ACC origins" and "Big East origins" first.
than Butgers and Uconn. Notre Dame has to hear the music playing. And if they don't grab a seat, they will be very cold for a long time.
And now with the talks of the Big 12 simply absorbing the Big East with the remaining schools, after the Texas, TT, Ok and Ok St exits, the music has to be a different tune for the golden domers.
The fewer penalties was definitely great to see, as they were driving me crazy vs. ECU. I wish I could say that we were polishing the rest of the game up the same way.
Am I the only one who thinks we really didn't look very good on Saturday? Granted I was at the game with a few pregame beverages flowing and didn't have the benefit of any closeups on tv.
We looked generally off. Knowing that particularly on offense we are young as a unit, I have some understanding of the fact that we shouldn't yet be functioning as a well oiled machine, but I thought that on Saturday we were sloppy. The timing seems bad with LT, lack of inside running game was evident, and it just seemed like we couldn't string a whole lot together and get much rhythm with the football.
I know it's early, but was also our 3rd game at home against an inferior opponent. I guess I was just hoping that our win would have been more decisive. This worries me for Clemson and Miami.
This would make our ACC situation much more palatable.
Even though the current PennSt ND teams aren't huge powerhouses.
They are huge in tradition and I would love to see a game at either.
Especially one where the Hokies go in and win :)
I didn't even think about this while watching Saturday, but we played much cleaner game this week. We had 12 penalties for 92 yards against ECU and only 5 for 51 yards against Arkansas State.
Pitt and Cuse... I don't get it. The ACC has plenty of mediocre football teams already. My ideal situation would have been to leave the conference the way it is, but that isn't a viable solution with the new superconference fad in full effect. From a football standpoint, no other option comes anywhere close to joining the SEC. Every freakin saturday would be awesome--playing Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, USCe, Florida... Think of the road trips. Now we are adding a school that is so snow covered during football season they have to play inside.
I'm sure I'll get excited about whatever season they actually start playing in the ACC, just like I get excited for every other season, but man I wish we could have gone the other way. Now that we're doing this, I hope at least we can get Texas. Maybe they could bring Baylor along if Swofford feels we need more mediocre teams.
At the heart of these thesisses is the ACC is looking to expand to 16 teams, and only took two teams right now to make the final two spots more desirable and appealing to bigger fish.
This is from Andrew Jones of FOXSportsSouth.com:
But why would Penn State leave the Big Ten and its mega TV deal and network so its games will air in Mayberry and like towns in the South? It wouldn't in the ACC's current form. But that obviously would change with these additions. The ACC would have a massive footprint in the northeast and toward Chicago. But let's be honest, Notre Dame still is national, so what it can do to enhance a TV package would have ACC mouths watering.
And keep in mind, Penn State wanted into the ACC in the late 1980s, and legendary coach Joe Paterno once preferred a union of other northeastern schools, even envisioning an ACC stretching the entire Atlantic coast. That day has basically arrived.
This is a really interesting idea, that would have seemed much more plausible had all this shaking and moving happened closer to '81 when Paterno tried to create an "Eastern Conference".
A bit of backstory. When conferences won the right (based on an antitrust case against the NCAA) to negotiate their own television contracts, Penn State resigned itself to dissolving its independent football status and joining a conference.
Paterno, then Penn State's athletic director, proposed the Eastern Conference, which he hoped would include such schools as Pitt, Syracuse, Maryland, Boston College, Temple and Rutgers. In 1981, when he pitched his idea, several Big East-member schools didn't want to give up their fledgling basketball conference.
It's obvious Paterno still believes it's in Penn State's best interest to be playing with schools in the east. He was a proponent of the Big Ten expanding to include Rutgers and Syracuse. However, there's a huge difference between the Big Ten adding these schools, and Penn State leaving the Big Ten for a new conference with them. Who knows what kind of influence JoePa has in the decision making process now, but it's intriguing nonetheless.
This is from Dan Wetzel of Yahoo! Sports:
"Obviously they are the most attractive option out there," one ACC athletic director told Yahoo! Sports on Monday, noting he had no knowledge of any discussions between the school and the league. Speaking generally, however, he added: "every league would want Notre Dame and we're no different."
...
Notre Dame is currently a member of the Big East in all sports except football, a sweetheart arrangement. It also enjoys a scheduling deal in football, where league teams often play the Irish even in November, when getting game dates is increasingly difficult. Since current Big East teams play just seven-league games, they are almost always available – South Florida and Pitt are on the docket this season.
If Big East football ceases to exist – or merges into a 12-or-16-team group with the remaining Big 12 schools – then that scheduling flexibility is gone. The noose tightens a little bit more.
http://www.foxsportssouth.com/09/18/11/ACC-additions-could-be-only-the-s...
http://www.mcall.com/sports/college/psu/mc-penn-state-column-20110919,0,...
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/news?slug=dw-wetzel_notre_dame_sho...
they also wouldn't have unanimously voted to raise the exit fee $7 million...I think the cat would have come out of the bag then.
Of course, business is business and there are still plenty of scenarios where playing something close to your chest would be beneficial even if your costs go up. But I agree, this seems stable.