Six Pick: Week Eight

BCO's College Football TV Viewing Guide

Correction: LSU is +6 vs Auburn

I’m bringing a full sixer to your living room this week. It’s tastier than last week’s sampler too. Keep your remotes in hand and be ready to start flipping at 3:30 and again at 8:00. A disturbing trend over the last decade is the lack of quality games at noon. Due to TV maximizing viewers, almost all the big time games are at 3:30 or later on Saturdays. To make it worse, this season has yielded a bad crop of Thursday night games. Trying to keep up with three games worth watching at the same time is a bit annoying. Speaking of crappy nooners, our Hokies face the doookies as the Jefferson Pilot ACC Network game of the week. The Hokie O will likely pile on the points and I expect the D will look a lot better this week with more favorable matchups. In two weeks the rest of the Hokie games will mean something, both in conference and nationally again. The Gobblers will be back in the Six Pick soon!

Saturday, October 23rd

6 LSU +6 at 4 Auburn 3:30 pm CBS


LSUfreek's oldie but goodie of the Madhatter

OK $EC fans, I know you expect ESPN College Gameday to travel to the southland every weekend. I get it, I get it, you have the biggest package and you get angry if you can't flaunt the parts off at every opportunity. When the worldwide leader renames the show to ESPN SEC Gameday, I will be with you, until then remember it's a nationwide attraction.

On to the game, where the best offense in the $EC belongs to Auburn, while the best defense is manned by the Bayou Bengals. LSU is flat out nasty against the run giving up an average of 84 yards a game, meanwhile Auburn gains an average of 284 yards on the ground. This is going to be a treat to watch, both are ranked 6th respectively in those categories–a true unstoppable force versus an immovable object. While it's true Auburn's defense isn't good, it's through the air where they are susceptible the most as teams have found it hard to run on the Tigers all season. Ruh-roh Jordan Lee, Jarrett Jefferson or whoever OC Gary Crowton throws out there. LSU will need a big day from punt returner Patrick Peterson to give them good field position and possibly points.

What to look for: The exact opposite of last week's Auburn-Arkansas showdown. This will be a low scoring, ugly slug fest. Both teams shutting down the run and forcing each other to win via the pass, advantage: Auburn. The Mad Hatter doing something crazy and unexpected, advantage: who the hell knows.

Pick: LSU getting points. It's too hard to call a winner as both have flaws that have to catch up to them eventually.

***

13 Wisky at 15 Iowa -5.5 3:30 pm ABC/ESPN

This is as good game as any this week, but not getting the pub, watch it if you can. It's old school football, none of that highfalutin spread offense here. Three yards and a cloud of dust is still the mantra at these two programs. When played right, and it's perfected by these two programs, it is absolutely fun to watch. It won't be sexy, but those handful of badass broken runs right up the gut or play-action big gainers will mean something in what is likely to be a low scoring affair. This game is huge in the Big1+10, lose it and fall behind the winner, tOSU and Michigan State, trading a trip to Pasadena for San Antonio. Statistically these two teams are almost mirror images of each other, so it's going to come down to who commits fewer turnovers and makes the least amount of mistakes.

What to look for: Wisconsin having a slight let down after their big win versus then No. 1 tOSU and taking a half to get it going again. Iowa feeding off the home crowd and QB Ricky Stanzi continuing to play lights out (13 TDs 2 INTs)

Pick: Iowa to to get a late score to cover the spread.

***

16 Nebraska -5.5 at 14 Okie State 3:30 pm ABC/ESPN

This game is about respect, Nebraska getting theirs back, Okie State earning it. The Cornhuskers got pwned by Tejas, a team they desperately wanted to beat as a last FU on their way to the Big1+10. I'm really interested to see if the Huskers rebound, or if the Longhorns beat them twice. Can T-Magic find another trick? Will Muschamp exposed his previous one, the quarterback keeper as the only option in the Husker's spread attack. It's Okie States big chance to show they are a good team worthy of a high ranking. None of the the Cowboy wins are particularly noteworthy, so this is their first chance at a statement W. It is another game of strength against strength. OSU gains almost double the yards (535.33 YPG) as the Blackshirts give up (274.33 YPG). Both rank in the top three of their respective pass efficiency categories (69.14% 21 TDs 9 INTs to 47.37% 4 TDs 11 INTs). The Okie State defense is pretty bad and God awful against the pass. However, they are pretty solid versus the run, look for them to play to their strength and dare Nebraska to take the bait, the chum that is their secondary.

What to look for: T-Magic to do a little more than pull bunnies out of his helmet and getting his mojo back versus the Cowboys' run defense. Nebraska won't totally stop Okie State but they will slow them down some and force a few turnovers.

Pick: Nebraska to rebound and win by a couple of scores.

***

UNC +6.5 at da U 7:30 pm ESPN2

The ACC matchup of the day as the University of Non Compliance faces Backulation (H/T Jim Alderson.) The loser can almost write off a trip to Charlotte to represent the Coastal in the ACCCG. Give Butch Davis credit for lots of things, paying for top talent, playing the "Ida know" card to perfection and keeping his eligible guys playing hard and well. Had all the Carolina Blue players been on the up and up, this team would be undefeated. A previously maligned UNC passing game (102nd in '09, 35th in '10) is doing very well even with missing All-Conference WR Greg Little. QB TJ Yates is having a good final season. However, the suspensions has hurt the Tarheels' defense. Without their two best and highest paid defensive linemen: DT Marvin Austin and DE Robert Quinn, teams have been able to run effectively on the heels (69th). Even with multiple starters missing time, the UNC secondary has not missed a beat already accounting for 11 interceptions with a couple more sure to come this week courtesy of 'Canes QB Jacory Harris. This game doesn't affect Butch Davis' tenure one bit, his die was cast years ago when he hired runner/coach John Blake and his son's "tutor". However, this might be a must win game for Miami's Randy Shannon. I am not suggesting he will be let go this season if things go south, but this could easily be the game that warms his seat. Recruits are noticing their struggles, and in South Beach that, not tickets sold, is the program's life blood.

What to look for: Miami will take advantage of the Tarheels depleted front four and run more than usual. UNC to out perform the more touted Hurricanes passing attack. To that note, Jacory being Jacory he will throw at least one crucial interception, while TJ Yates won't.

Pick: UNC getting the points and winning outright.

***

1 Oklahoma -3 at 11 Mizzou 8:00 pm ABC

Is Mizzou for real? We will find out on Saturday night. Vegas sure seems to think so, only making OU a field goal favorite. Like last week in Madison, it's now Columbia's turn to host the No. 1 team and turn electric. Can the Tigers live in the moment, both feeding off and focusing all the energy and excitement? Will No. 1 go down for the third straight week?

Even at 6-0, this is Mizzou's first true test. The tough evaluation will come when they are on defense, trying to stop that Sooners' offense. The OU offense as good as they are (17th overall) might be statistically underrated, having played two of the best defenses in the nation (FSU, Texas). The Mizzou offense should be able to effectively move the ball on OU and their alarmingly bad defense (71st overall). This has all the makings of a shootout or what has become a normal Big 12 game.

What to look for: The battle tested Sooners to weather the storm early and roll up yards and points on Missouri. The Tigers will also do some damage, but I get the feeling the OU defense is going to start to playing better and more to their talent level.

Pick: OU wins by more than a touchdown.

***

Air Force +18.5 at 5 TCU 8:00 pm CBSC

Hey everybody, I snuck in non automatic qualifier game. Look, I don't know a whole bunch about either team, I guess that makes me a BCS snob or something. What I do know is I love the Air Force Flex Bone offense and the annually stout Horned Frog defense. As most of you know, I really enjoy the old school option offenses, even more so when run by the service academies, with their undersized players who never take a play off. Head Coach Gary Patterson is every bit the defensive mind, Bud Foster, Bo Pelini or Nick Saban is, but without the prestige. His teams deliver every year. So when they face each other, I try to watch if I can. Senor Frog QB Andy Dalton has been around forever and the last two seasons he has been very efficient (2,756 yards 23 TDs 8 INTs in '09, 2,242 11 TDs 5 INTs in '08), not that I look for much passing versus Air Force when it's so easy to run on them (91st overall). Likewise, you can be certain Air Force is going to run as they lead the nation in rushing (346.86 YPG). This game could be over in two and half hours, so tune in early.

What to look for: A lot of running and a more physical TCU team to wear down the Falcons.

Pick: Air Force will keep the game closer than expected.

What I'm drinking on Saturday.
Dogfish Head Palo Santo Marron

Busting out of my regional trend and going for a beer that drinks like a wine... something the blue bloods from Durham can appreciate. A 12% abv brown ale aged in Paraguayan Palo Santo wood meant to be drank slowly.

DISCLAIMER: Blog posts may not have been written or edited by The Key Play staff.

Comments

And away we go...

Auburn win over unlucky LSU
Wisky keeps is closer
Okie State also keeps under the pts
UNC wins or is under the spread
Other Okie wins, no upset
AF keeps it much closer

#Let's Go - Hokies

I missed the change to LSU - Aub

I guess it didn't matter since they beat the spread. 2-4 sucks. The state of OK didn't have a good week.

#Let's Go - Hokies

tough this week

hopefully my Rangers can close out Friday night so I can watch some football on Sat... if not, ALCS all the way.

give me-

AUB
IOWA
NEB
MIA
OKLA
TCU

Do you have an ALCS, NLCS Prediction?

If so lay it on us.

My Picks

Auburn - As much as I want to, I can't pick against a home underdog in the SEC.
Iowa
Nebraska - This game along with the Oklahoma game will end up being a blowout. Every year the middle class of the Big 12 makes good use of their super metabolism and stays looking good early on by feasting on a diet of cupcakes. As soon as they play one of the big boys they're exposed as fraudulent.
UNC - The "What if?" season continues.
Oklahoma
Air Force - TCU isn't going to have enough time to blow them out.

Beer 'O the Weekend

Because it's blended, duh.

I don't get it

Joe, LSU is the underdog and Aub is the hometeam, how can pick the home underdog team? It's not possible.

6 LSU -6 at 4 Auburn 3:30 pm CBS

Unless I am really sleep deprived BeerControl has LSU as a six point favorite... I wanted to take the Bengals up until that point.

shit

i messed that up. now, i'm a bit embarrassed.

lsu is getting 6.

doh. feel free for anyone to change.

eric

"My advice to you... is to start drinking heavily."-John Blutarsky

Auburn but it's a toss up
Iowa
Nebraska
UNC
Oklahoma
Air Force

i think i have about 10 percent confidence in the accuracy of these picks.

im going for 35% this week

Auburn
Iowa
Cornhuskers
UNC
Okie
Airforce

beer of weekend

cause it is local and cheap

"I don't know what a Hokie is, but God is one of them.' So I'm going with God. I'm going with Virginia Tech." Lee Corso Aug 23, 2000

http://www.thekeyplay.com

83.33333333333333333333333333333333333333333333%

Going for 83.333333333% (or 5 of 6) this week.

Auburn (damn it, that hurt to say) - it's an away game, and I think Cam will be too much to contain.
Iowa - homefield again
Cowboys - cornholios just haven't impressed me this year
UNC - even thought they're short a few, they're still a good ball team
OU
Air Farce - don't really care

you sent me this pic - CamelToe Newton

from some lsu photoshop geek, it deserves to be posted on here.

From BCO Pix2

eric

"My advice to you... is to start drinking heavily."-John Blutarsky

This is precious.

If BCO gives his blessing I think magnificent Photoshops like this should have a home here.

Quid Pro Quo

Quid pro quo BCO, my favorite LSUFreek of all time

week 8

6 fo 6, lets get it!

aub
neb
iowa
unc
osu
tcu

#vtarch

LSU - can't wait to see how miles almost screws this up
Iowa - very hard to win @iowa
Oklahoma State - Because Mike Gundy is 43, and he is a man
UN¢ - We shouldn't pick who is going to win this game, but how many INTs Jacory throws, I'm saying 3, while throwing into Double/Triple/Quadruple Coverage 6 times
Mizzoura - Cheerleader Rule
Toads - Can't wait for the BSU/TCU National Championship game, going to be Epic

My pick 6

1.) Auburn
2.) Iowa
3.) Nebraska
4.) Miami
5.) Oklahoma
6.) TCU

Lets not go O-fer again

Auburn
Wisco
Nebraska
Miami
OU
TCU

Re: O-fer

I think Stiney even got a couple of games right last week.

Ouch, bro. Ouch.

Week Ocho

Big games, big picks, not for the faint of heart.

1. LSU. The Hatter still has the horseshoe crammed up his...
2. Iowa. Adam Robinson is a beast.
3. Oklahoma State, cover and outright win. Weedon.
4. UNC. Just because.
5. Oklahoma. Broyles!
6. Air Force. The froggies will win, but not cover.

This weekend is time for a little Brown Shugga!!!!!

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

eight

1) Auburn
2) Iowa
3) Nebraska
4) miami
5) Oklahoma
6) Air Force
6.5) Phillies

Seattle Hokie Picks

You better listen to me. I am now under 50% so listen to me and take the opposite picks that I make. Then you will be over 50%, maybe. Sorry, BCO, but 3:30 games are at 12:30 for me and I love them. Thats what I get for living in PST. I love living here but during football season I hate it. Oh yeah, and at least two days a week I have a 6:00 am calls for work, including Mondays. In other news this is the beginning time of year that gets me depressed. I was setting my tivo today to record the Friday night CFL game and saw that 4 letters network was showing a pre-season NBA and a big surprise it was a Miami Lebron game. Now I know that CFL is slowing down but the good thing is I don't have to watch the 4 letter networks much more. On to the picks.

Tigers - Fear the White Hat. Fear future Heisman Trophy winner Jacory Har... ,ugh sorry, I mean Cam Newton. I think the Tigers will definitely win. I kind of think that Auburn scored too many td's versus Arkansas but the LSU offense looks Stiney inspired. So while I think the Tigers will win, i am going to pick Auburn.

Iowa - I don't think there will be a letdown per se from Wisconsin, the Big 10 +1 soon to be the Big 10 +2 is so overrated. I don't think Iowa winning would be that much of an upset. Also Iowa is at home and their coach went to the same high school as I did.

Nebraska - Not only will TMagic pull a rabbit out of his hat, he will saw OK St in half. OK St's qb is the older brother of Chris Weinke and I think his age will show.

da U - How many times must I proclaim that Miami is Back until someone listens to me. Sure there has been a bump in the road here and there but the swagger of Miami rules college football once again, just you wait. Jacory will win this game by handing the ball off or if I am dead wrong like 50% of the time, he will lose it by completing passes to the UNC secondary and tutors.

Sooners - Mizzou's hasn't played in a really big game in a long time. Big game Bob knows how to get his team up for a non-championship game. This should be over by halftime.

Frogs - It hard for me to cheer against either team (and I am full of hate). AFA just wont have the stamina to hop with the frogs all night.

The picks tonight were brought to you by Tre Anelli Dolceto wine. Tomorrow there is a 50/50 chance I will be drinking Rogers Pilsner. Go Hokies.

Picks

Auburn - Les Miles balls are going to explode
Whiskey - but its a toss up. Both teams have great QBs
Nebraksa - Bo Pelini is the 2nd best Defensive mind in country
Miami - Harris will throw his picks, but they will only land in the tutor's hands
Oklahoma - The best team in the Big XII this season
TCU - but in a close game against the best defense in the land

Beer of the weekend: Northern VA Brew fest....free beer for volunteering
You mean I have to pick one? the Dogfish Nunchuck: equal parts of Chicory Stout, 90 min, Punkin. Absolutely delicious!