I put this together over the course of a few work lunch breaks, and just remembered I hadn't posted it.
Note: Rankings that were used to organize this spreadsheet were acquired at 247. I did it all manually, so there are probably mistakes. There are recruits that fall within the top 701 all time recruits who have not signed with a team; they are omitted. The 247 rankings start in year 2000.
I've compiled this spread sheet documenting where all the 5 star recruits in history have signed.
Since the start of the recorded rankings on 247, 54 schools have landed a recruiticorn. Of those 54 schools, only 20 have landed double digit recruiticorns (85.17% of the total available recruiticorns).
|SCHOOL||TOP 50||51 - 100||101 -250||251 - 500||501 - 701||Total|
|NORTH CAROLINA STATE||1||1||1||3|
61.12% of the recruiticorns have signed with 10 schools.
Each of three schools (USC, FSU, Alabama) has a minimum 8% chance of landing a recruiticorn. Eight percent may not sound like much. But, consider that we have signed 0.58% of the available recruiticorns since year 2000. These three schools have landed a minimum of 13.8x the 5 stars that we have. Nearly 25% of all 5 star recruits go to these three schools. It's absolutely mind boggling.
Consensus National Championships since year 2000 (Non-consensus titles or stripped titles in parentheses) :
Alabama: 5 (1)
LSU: 2 (1)
Ohio State: 2 (1)
USC: 1 (3)
Oklahoma: 1 (1)
Miami: 1 (1)
Florida State: 1
Oklahoma State: (1)
Notre Dame: (1)
So, then we look at where we rank.
We are solidly in the running with NC State, Rutgers, UNC, Colorado, Missouri, Wisconsin, Cal, UMD, Washington, Arkansas, Virginia, and South Carolina. Only one of those teams appears on the list of NC titles above, and it's not a consensus title.
I'm not going to say that 5 star recruits are what win championships. I believe a team of four stars with the occasional 5 star and 3 star in play is most likely to win. It is hard to ignore, however, the top 11 recruiters of 5 star talent all hold a national championship in some form. In an odd flip of the numbers, 18 of the next 20 teams do not hold a national championship.
Again, it's difficult to claim that 5 star recruiting is a recipe for success. But, it is impressive to see the amount of 5 star talent at FSU, a team that only managed a single NC in the last 18 years.