8,192 Coastal Division Scenarios Remain

It's that time of year again. There are 13 ACC games remaining featuring at least one Coastal Division team, meaning there are 8,192 different ways those games could play out. I've crunched the numbers and determined which team wins each scenario, giving me a total number of scenarios won by each team. I also have each team's chances of going to Charlotte, using last week's SP+ numbers, so I'll update those after Bill updates them tomorrow. Spoiler alert, you probably aren't going to like the results...

Team Odds # Outcomes
Virginia 67.75% 4,296
Virginia Tech 16.50% 1,841
Pittsburgh 8.50% 1,120
Miami 6.46% 560
North Carolina 0.55% 282
Duke 0.082% 66
Georgia Tech 0.007% 11
Tie* 0.15% 16

* - A tie that is reaches step #7 on the list of tiebreakers, all 16 of which are 3-way ties between Pitt, UVA, and Virginia Tech

Despite controlling our own destiny, we have a bit of an uphill battle ahead of us, considering that we have 4 ACC games to slog through, whereas everyone else has only 2 or 3. Interestingly, there are still scenarios that exist where we could lose any one of our next 3 games and still win the division, but one thing is certain at this point: we absolutely have to beat UVA if we want to have any chance of going to Charlotte. And, yes, the mythical 7-way 4-4 tie is still on the table, and the best part is that we would win 6 of the 9 possible scenarios that would lead to such an outcome.

Edit: adjusted odds per updated SP+ rankings (they actually got worse). Also... charts!

I probably shouldn't have added the charts. I don't like them very much.

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Comments

Love seeing these numbers. Wake looks tough but GT looks like a win and the last two are toss ups against Pitt and LOLUVA. I think we are improving faster than either of those two, so I'm still optimistic.

According to last week's numbers, we have a 49% chance to beat Wake, 64% chance to beat GT, 51% chance to beat Pitt, and a 33% chance to beat UVA, but I believe that all 8 games are weighted the same. I bet if you look at just our 4 games with HH and QP at the helm, all of those numbers would increase a decent amount.

In any case, I am cautiously optimistic about the rest of the season. At this point our primary goal is beating UVA, and if we can manage to extend that streak we're in pretty good shape for the Coastal race. A look at the numbers if you could guarantee a win over UVA:

Team Odds # Outcomes
Virginia Tech 50.07% 1,841
Pittsburgh 19.65% 864
Virginia 16.86% 728
Miami 11.02% 288
North Carolina 1.67% 282
Duke 0.25% 66
Georgia Tech 0.021% 11
Tie 0.47% 16

Unsurprisingly I'm focused on the remaining Coastal opponents. As much as today's game meant nothing as far as the ACC Coastal standings are concerned, the Wake game is pretty transparent too. Pitt, GT, LOLUVA I want to win. If that happens, then I'll take whatever tiebreaker might exist and might mean for us at that point.

You are exactly correct that if we are going to lose one of the last 4 games, the Wake game would be the best one to lose, but if we beat Wake and lose to either GT or Pitt there are still paths for us to win the division, and it's also possible (but highly unlikely) for us to lose to Wake, win the rest of our games, and not go to Charlotte.

Also, completely unrelated, when I first saw your first comment it said "1 hour 6 minutes ago" and I was surprised that I'd been gone that long, but now the rest of the comments say over 1 hour ago and I just realized it must be because TKP time (eastern time) is no longer in DST but I still am, causing some weirdness with comment timestamps.

Nice, let's get that 3way going!

I can imagine no more rewarding a career. And any man who may be asked in this century what he did to make his life worthwhile, I think can respond with a good deal of pride and satisfaction:
“I served in the United States Navy"

KCCO

Are these odds based on the likelihood of a given outcome, or does it assume that all outcomes are equally as likely to occur?

Twitter me

The odds of each scenario are calculated from the odds of each game's outcome using the SP+ rankings. If they were all given the same rate, UVA would have a 52% (4296/8192) chance, but since most of the most likely scenarios go to them their overall odds are higher.

Fuck UVA. We needed to THEM drop that one against UNC.

Edit: dropped a word. Sorry.

Uhhhh what? That wouldn't have hurt UVA much, since they just beat UNC themselves and would have the tiebreaker. Best bet is to beat UVA ourselves.

Think he forgot a word

We needed them to drop that one against UNC.

You might right

Some people have a way with words, others have not way.

Even so, a UNC win last night wouldn't change too much in the overall picture. The winner of that game was guaranteed 4-2, and the loser 3-3. The only main difference is that we already played UNC and beat them, so VT would have been the only Coastal team to control their destiny.

It would have also opened up more likely tiebreaker scenarios in our favor, so it's not just that we'd be the only team "in control". But, it is what it is, and if we take care of business then we win the Coastal anyway.

Part of it is that I hate to see them win what would have been an easy loss for them.

I you think may have misworded some orders in your edit.

I think even if we lose to Wake we are in good shape because I feel strongly that Miami will beat Duke. Then we would likely win multi-way tiebreaker if we beat GT, Pitt, and UVA

I prefer to beat Wake, just in case we don't win our last three games. Plus, I like the idea of beating the best one of them.

Get the win in early.

We haven't beat a ranked team at home since 2009. I really want to this one and i think it's big for Fuente to get his first ranked win at Lane.

Gobble Till You Wobble

What a sad statistic. You're right, I really want this victory for the team and for Fuente's resume as a recruiting tool. Wake is arguably the second best team in the Atlantic Division this year, beating them would make a nice statement about the direction of our program. And get us one win away from the bowl streak extension. Sure hope HH is 100 percent physically ready to play.

VTCC '86 Delta Company, Hokie in Peru, Former USNR, Former FBISA, Forever married to my VT87 girl. Go VT!

I'm just happy that the Hokies control their own destiny after the tire fire that was the month of September.

Meanwhile, GT be like:

It is not complicated *, FAM. Win all the rest of our games and we are in.

* "Not complicated" does not mean it is easy. We can not control what other teams do; the Hokies can only control their own efforts. Whether, its called "Hard, Smart, Tough" or some other inspirational phrase(s), the good guys have to play as a 60 focused minutes as a team in each of the remaining games.

Ut Prosim Ad Dei Gloriam

If we go 2/3 out of Wake/GT/Pitt, and beat UVA we are in correct?

74-54

if we drop another ACC game, don't we have to worry about a Duke tie breaker? Or is that one of those 3-way things where you can get in the championship game over a team that beat you and with whom you share the same conference record?

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

It will depend on who else is in the tie, and in some cases which game is lost. We have a better divisional record than Duke.

There is no simple answer for scenarios like that. A loss to any of those teams creates different scenarios.

Losses to Pitt and UVA are the most damaging to our chances.

There is a path to Charlotte while losing any one of the first three games, but in all 3 cases we would need some help. Much less help if the loss is to Wake, as our only concern would be a 2-way tie with Duke (we would own literally every other tie scenario), but if we lose to GT our slightly worse division record comes into play with 3+ team tiebreakers, and if we lose to Pitt that's another contender with a H2H advantage (plus the worse division record).

Considering the vast majority of scenarios in Virginia's 67.75% to win the division involve Virginia beating Virginia Tech, I think I'll have no problem sleeping at night.

16IAR,B!

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

16IAR,B!

Did you just have a stroke at your keyboard? Do we need to call someone?

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Sixteen In A Row, Baby!

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

I think I just threw up in my mouth a little bit. Those charts are ugly

Achievement unlocked: All of the Fullers

"Sam Rogers is a college football icon" SB Nation

Thanks Frank!

I know the colors weren't the worst part of the charts, but maybe now they're a little easier on the stomach?

No, UVA still has too much of the pie 🤮

Achievement unlocked: All of the Fullers

"Sam Rogers is a college football icon" SB Nation

Thanks Frank!

one request, please make the VT section of the pie maroon instead of navy blue. As it is now, the pie is very UVA-themed...

I hate that I didn't even consider that at first, I just left the default colors. While I was at it I decided to change around some of the other colors as well.

Thanks!

I Guess there's only one left to do ...

So, I had an idea and ran with it. There is the possibility of going into Week 13 (when we play Pitt) and having only one relevant game remaining to determine the winner of the Coastal (VT @ UVA in Week 14 in a de-facto ACC Coastal Division Championship Game). The following results would need to happen over the next two weeks for that scenario to play out:

Week 11:
- UVA beats Georgia Tech
- Virginia Tech beats Wake Forest

Week 12:
- UNC beats Pitt
- Virginia Tech beats Georgia Tech
- Syracuse beats Duke

According to my numbers, there is about a 2.8% chance of this happening, but at the very least it gives us a rooting guide for the next couple weeks. And yes, our chances of winning the coastal actually decrease ever so slightly (from about 12.3% to about 12.0%) if GT beats UVA. But then again, their chances would drop from 72% to only 40%, so on second thought that 0.3% hit is probably well worth it.

Even with only a 2.8 percent chance of that happening, that scenario seems pretty realistic. I'm guessing that in a lot of the scenarios left, the VT vs UVA game will have a say in who goes to the ACCCG no matter what happens until then. With it being Bud's final ride and the team starting to play better by the week, I think we can beat 'em and wrap up the Coastal this year. I want us to finish 4-0 and send Bud out on a good note sooooooooo bad...

Yes but how many need to break out way to still play in Charlotte?

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

At a minimum? 4. If we win out we go to Charlotte. If we lose to Wake but win the rest, we go to Charlotte if Duke loses one of 3 games or if UVA beats GT or if at least one of Pitt, UNC, or Miami also finishes 5-3. The scenarios are more varied for a single loss to either GT or Pitt, but the one thing we know for certain is that we must beat UVA to have any chance at winning the Coastal.

but the one thing we know for certain is that we must beat UVA to have any chance at winning the Coastal.

Just because we always have to.

VT to LOLUVa before each meeting:

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..