It's that time of year again. There are 13 ACC games remaining featuring at least one Coastal Division team, meaning there are 8,192 different ways those games could play out. I've crunched the numbers and determined which team wins each scenario, giving me a total number of scenarios won by each team. I also have each team's chances of going to Charlotte, using last week's SP+ numbers, so I'll update those after Bill updates them tomorrow. Spoiler alert, you probably aren't going to like the results...
* - A tie that is reaches step #7 on the list of tiebreakers, all 16 of which are 3-way ties between Pitt, UVA, and Virginia Tech
Despite controlling our own destiny, we have a bit of an uphill battle ahead of us, considering that we have 4 ACC games to slog through, whereas everyone else has only 2 or 3. Interestingly, there are still scenarios that exist where we could lose any one of our next 3 games and still win the division, but one thing is certain at this point: we absolutely have to beat UVA if we want to have any chance of going to Charlotte. And, yes, the mythical 7-way 4-4 tie is still on the table, and the best part is that we would win 6 of the 9 possible scenarios that would lead to such an outcome.
Edit: adjusted odds per updated SP+ rankings (they actually got worse). Also... charts!
I probably shouldn't have added the charts. I don't like them very much.