OT: Coronavirus Tracking Thread Part II

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Not the end of the world. These new composite sticks suck ass anyway

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

I just heard an interview on NPR with an expert from Johns Hopkins that said China is short on the resources to test suspected cases and so they are only testing the worse cases.

This implies that the actual number of cases are quite understated, I would think.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

That could also mean that the percentage of fatalities is much higher than what the death incidence truly is if only the bad cases are being tested.

The flip side of the coin is there are likely deaths not being counted as China doesn't have time nor resources for autopsies to confirm if the death was due to coronavirus.

Here's a really good read on modeling the outbreak: Science Mag

Bottom line:

The take home message from this R analysis is that countries other than China still have a good chance of containing 2019-nCoV. "Early on in an outbreak, you can take advantage of the fact that there's this probability of the thing fading out," Thompson says. "And if you can isolate the few infected people you have very quickly, then the probability of this fading out is much higher."

R is the rate of transmission.

🦃 🦃 🦃

Apparently, the virus has spread into North Korea as well...and needless to say, they are woefully unprepared to deal with it.

I saw that as well, and have heard they are not reporting any of their ill people. Typical North Korea stuff.


Hey all, track this via more appropriate outlets.