Analyzing Brewer's Return Against Duke and Why Tech's Offense Needs to Run More on First Down

After Scot Loeffler spent all offseason praising Michael Brewer's progress and talking about the importance of experience at the quarterback position, it was cruel to see Brewer go down with a broken collarbone little more than a half into the season. Brewer got the all clear from the medical staff to start against Duke on Saturday, and he performed admirably. Brewer's experience in Loeffler's system showed, and he threw for 270 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Loeffler's offense amassed 452 yards, and after Brewer knocked off most of the rust early in the ball game, it looked like a capable unit against a very tough and smart Duke defense.

Knocking Off The Rust

Michael Brewer wasn't perfect in his return to Lane Stadium, particularly in the first half. Brewer was a little too slow on some reads and a little too quick on others. He still has the tendency to throw to his first available receiver underneath rather than waiting in the pocket for a deeper route to open up.

This is one of the very first pass concepts I diagramed when Loeffler got hired, and is a staple of his playbook.

Loeffler runs two snag routes in the middle of the field with the hopes of either getting an easy short pass or opening up a slightly deeper In route in the middle of the field. It is hard to fault Brewer for an incompletion where the receiver was clearly interfered with, but my biggest concern is that Brewer is so quick to throw it underneath that he misses Hodges wide open past the first down line. Hodges comes out of his break on an In route and finds an opening in between the deeper safeties and the linebackers. If Brewer has the patience to move past his first read, he has an easy throw to a big target for first down.

On this play, everything is setup perfectly for a big pass play down the field. The offensive line does a fantastic job in pass protection, not just preventing anyone from touching Brewer but also giving him a nice pocket to step into his throw. The receiver (Hodges again) runs a nice route and cruises past the safety. Michael Brewer's teammates have given him the opportunity to complete a 40-yard touchdown pass, but Brewer unfortunately just sails the throw.

Brewer's tendency to take the short option combined with his inaccuracy throwing deep routes have led to a low yards per passing attempt average. Against Duke on saturday, Brewer averaged just 6.0 yards per pass, which would be good for 108th in the nation if it continued over the course of an entire season. The lack of explosive passing plays does hurt the Hokies, as it puts even more stress on the offense to be more efficient in the short pass game to keep the chains moving.

Brewer's Success Throwing Short

Loeffler was able to move the ball through the air against Duke despite a lack of a strong vertical passing attack because of Brewer's ability to quickly find open receivers and his accuracy in the short game.

Loeffler lines up his offense with three receivers bunched towards the boundary. Isaiah Ford is isolated to the field and Brewer recognizes pre-snap that Ford is facing man coverage. Ford runs a great route to get separation from the corner and Brewer delivers the ball on time and in the right location to pick up the first down. In that formation, facing that coverage, the Hokies should convert every time and Brewer does. As a matter of fact, here is Brewer making the exact same read and same throw out of the same formation against Ohio State.

This is why Brewer is the starter over Motley, despite Motley's much more impressive athletic skill set. Loeffler trusts Brewer to know what he is trying to exploit against a defense and he also trusts Brewer to execute that plan. Michael Brewer isn't just a conservative game manager though, he can wow fans with his skill throwing the ball.

Once again Loeffler isolates Ford on one side of the formation (this time to the boundary) with the intention of attacking the defense's man coverage to that side. Brewer again makes the right read and then he makes an incredible throw to pick up the first down against really good coverage. The cornerback does everything right on this play, he just gets beat by a good route and an incredible throw. On the end zone angle replay, you can see just how great the timing and placement was on that ball. There was no margin for error on that throw for Brewer, but luckily for Tech he didn't need any.

Michael Brewer's quick recognition and his confidence to throw the ball before his receivers are open allows him to make plays even when his pass protection breaks down.

Duke blitzes one more defender than Tech can account for, bringing seven when Tech left six into block. Brewer doesn't panic, he calmly picks out his best physical mismatch (Bucky Hodges in single coverage against a safety) and he lofts the ball to his target before Hodges even makes his break. Bucky gets turned around and unfortunately isn't able to make the catch, but this is still a good example of how Brewer's knowledge of Loeffler's system allows him to make plays even when pass protection falls apart. Later in the drive, Tech lines up and runs the same play. This time though, Bucky makes the catch.

The Usual Limitations

Scot Loeffler has to be happy with the way his senior quarterback played, but there are only so many things that Michael Brewer can do to improve offensive production. At the end of the day, a lot of the issues which plagued the offense during Brewer's absence aren't going to be fixed by a more accurate quarterback. Brewer can help Loeffler work around poor pass protection by getting rid of the ball quickly, but there are going to be times when this offense's consistency in the passing game will suffer because Brewer won't have the time to make all of his reads.

The other fundamental flaw with the offense right now is the inconsistency of the short yardage rushing attack. Loeffler can only practice so many plays during the week which allow the offense to get a completion in a short yardage situation, and he can't afford to run the same handful of plays against smart defensive coordinators over and over. Loeffler can't just trust Brewer to make the right read and an accurate throw against defenses who know what's coming. The law of diminishing returns applies to football as well.

If Tech is going to make a push for a bowl game this year, a goal I remain fairly optimistic about, Loeffler needs to make an effort to establish some type of rushing attack from under center earlier in games. The short yardage rush package that Loeffler has is too predictable because Loeffler only utilizes it in short yardage situations.

This is just a classic power play. The left side of the offensive line blocks down, Rogers kicks out the end man on the line of scrimmage, and Conte pulls to lead Edmunds through the hole. The most frustrating part of this play is that the offensive line does a decent job of blocking at the point of attack, there is a hole for Edmunds to get through... But Jeremy Cash makes a great play to blow up Edmunds in the backfield.

Now Cash is a great defender, but Scot Loeffler isn't doing his team any favors by waiting until an obvious rushing down to break out the power rushing formations. Tech doesn't have any blockers to account for Cash coming off the edge because Loeffler is relying on the threat of a bootleg by Brewer to slow down Cash. Is this a reasonable expectation though? If Loeffler doesn't ever bother showing the defense a bootleg play or even a play-action pass out of this formation, why would the defense respect those threats on an obvious rushing down? Scot Loeffler set his team up for failure by neglecting to establish a well rounded package from under center. If Loeffler took the time to run a bootleg or a play action pass from this formation in the first quarter, Cash might not be so aggressive on this down. By waiting until an obvious rushing situation in the 2nd quarter to get under center for the first time, Loeffler dared the defense to stop the run without building the foundation to allow his team to succeed

This is the type of package that Loeffler should be mixing in with the Brewer-led short passing attack more often. As I pointed out above, rushing from under center more often and on earlier downs will improve short yardage conversion rates because Loeffler will have had the opportunity to see how the defense lines up and plan accordingly. He'll also get the added benefit of getting his offensive linemen some reps on non-critical downs. It might not be the best strategy to wait until the life of a drive is on the line to ask your players to line up in a formation they aren't used to and to run a play they rarely run.

Not only would rushing it from under center on earlier downs help in short yardage situations, it's just good football strategy! By my count against Duke, Tech had 12 first downs in the first half. On eight of those first downs, Brewer dropped back and attempted a pass. Of the four rushing attempts, one was by Motley and one was by Trey Edmunds. Travon McMillian, the player who has proven he is far and away the best running back on the squad, got just two first down carries the entire first half. That's not good enough.

Travon got many more carries on first down in the second half and in overtime, and it's not a surprise to me that the offensive production improved. Running on early downs is an easy way for offenses to stay ahead of the chains. Defenses are wary of play-action passes on first down and aren't going to be as aggressive attacking the line of scrimmage, allowing backs to pick up a relatively easy 3-5 yards if the offensive line can contain the defensive line. Rushing on first down isn't just a conservative strategy though, it can lead to explosive plays! You tell me, which is more likely to turn into an explosive play, a five yard snag route by Ryan Malleck or a hand off to Travon McMillian? Even if Travon doesn't rip off a big gain himself, if he can put the offense into a 2nd-and-medium, the offense can afford to take a shot down the field on the next play because Loeffler knows that if the pass falls incomplete he'll still be in a 3rd-and-manageable situation.

Virginia Tech is still capable of getting to a bowl game. There will probably be an uptick in offensive production given Brewer's return and the Hokies' remaining four games aren't projected to be as difficult as the last four games were. If the offense can continue to limit turnovers under Brewer and the defense can find a way to start making game-changing plays again, this team is good enough to run the table and get back to a bowl game.