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Louisville
Florida
Stanford
Auburn
Washington
Clemson

So, using Zach's raw data, and looking up a bit from ESPN, I made the following:

This first chart shows my tweaked version of his "Efficiency Scores" vs the Yds/Rec of each reciever. To tweak his formula, I changed it to E = (all receptions/expected receptions), where expected receptions = 100% of all easy catches, 80% of all moderately easy catches, and 50% of all tough catches.

Some interesting notes from this plot:

  • Danny Coale was really really good at intermediate to deep balls (he's the diamond on the upper right)
  • In fact, Danny was so damn good at those routes, our recievers as a whole were actually better as we went deeper. That's incredible!
  • Willie Bryn, our best reciever this year by these ratings, is quite effective at medium ranges
  • Our team's effectiveness drops off when throwing deep rapidly this year. Don't know if that's our offense or our recievers
  • Last year, we were throwing deep a lot, and weren't particularly great at it.

This next chart compares the percentage of passes "Out of Reach" for a given reciever, against how many yds/rec that reciever got:

As I said earlier, I think this percentage is a pretty good reflection of how effective the WR/QB relationship is, and might be a decent reflection for the offense as a whole. A healthy offense, with a comfortable qb, who is not behind the chains, and has a good rapport with his WR should generally be hitting his WR. Obviously, the longer the routes the WR runs, the more often hes going to be overthrown, but generally speaking, this number should be indicative of a healthy offense (I would think). The thing I think that's really apparent from this chart is how much Logan struggeled getting the balls to his WRs in 2012, and how now we are back pretty close to the 2011 levels. I'm not pointing any fingers, because we've had this discussion a million times here, just trying to show with math and stuff that we are defintely seeing a return to 2011 form in effectiveness for the entire passing game. Maybe not quite as deep, but perhaps even more effectively in the medium yardage range.

Undefeated Clemson gets in over anyone with the exception of Alabama v. Oregon. But you can even make a case of them over Oregon. Clemson's SOS is just so strong.

Louisville
Florida
Stanford
Auburn
Washington
FSU

If the ACC Champion is undefeated, they will play for the National Championship.

Disagree. If the PAC12 Champ or SEC champ runs the table they get in before us. I think if B12 Champ runs the table, it's a toss up (depends on who the ACC champ is). I think/hope undefeated ACC champ gets in over undefeated B10 champ.

I would agree completely. Beamer is a life motivator. I would say the best examples are his sit downs in his office with players like Journel, after his arrest, and J.R. Collins. Tell me Collins isn't motivated. I believe the charactor of a VT player is as much, if not more importance to Beamer than a player's ability on the field (ex: Marcus Vick and Brandon Ore).

Moreover, I get the impression that a Frank Beamer staff feels they will only ever say what they need to say to the media. So using how our staff talks to the media to define them as motivators for the team doesn't really make any since.

One loss USCe would also mean they beat Clemson so yes, they would get in over us. But his point was that they would have 2 losses after losing to Clemson. Also, not buying Mizzou without Franklin. Can't believe they beat UGA last week, but I don't see them getting past Florida this weekend. I see them dropping games to Florida, A&M and USCe.

If the ACC Champion is undefeated, they will play for the National Championship. If the Hokies (or another team with a loss) wins the ACC, they will not (because they are not undefeated.) It's really that easy.

I think you're right. But Clemson may sneak in with help from the computers because their SoS is so high.

The really interesting thing in this scenario is how many teams have a claim for a shared title. I mean if Oregon beat Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Baylor all have a legitimate claim to be #1 as long as they win their bowl game.

Skipper, in your multi-undefeated teams scenario, Alabama and Oregon would play for the MNC. They are the media darlings, they would draw huge ratings, and they are currently #1 and #2, which means there would be little controversy for the polling systems in anointing them the 2 best teams. In other words, the beauty contest that is the BCS continues for one more ridiculous year.

I'm with you, but it's a pretty solid recruiting tool. Younger guys really like new and crazy stuff. I would bet that Beamer would probably prefer to just have 2 uniforms himself, but given the recruiting benefits to having different uniforms he's likely given in to the demand.

Very good, sir. Your name gets applied to the "Good" column.

I may be in the minority but, I don't like all the changes in uniform and helmets.
gimme a home, and away, and maybe one for different weather conditions but, I'm not a big fan of all the changes. They're expensive and just not that thrilling to me.

I know some recruits want them but, that kind of stuff never reached me.

That'll be true if only Joe shows up.

Wow, great article.
Judging by his career numbers, I think everyone would agree that the "Logan Thomas experiment" has turned into a great success.

Can he get drafted and make in in the NFL? He's numbers are improving running Loeffler's pro-style offense, and is probably getting some consideration from NFL teams. Because of all the QB talent coming out of college this year, he could end up a late round selection.

But his real legacy is not where he ends up, but what he's done for the team while at Tech. Logan has been a selfless leader the whole time, and a class act through last year's tough season. The QB is always going to be heavily scrutinized, but Logan has handled the spotlight well through his share of adversity. Here's hoping he can lead his team to win the ACC championship this season!

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