32 (!!!) Coastal Division Scenarios Remain

There are now only five ACC games left with any impact on the ACC Coastal race. With Pitt beating UNC, Syracuse beating Duke, and Virginia Tech shutting out Georgia Tech, Miami is now added to the list of teams eliminated from Coastal contention. For the three teams left in contention, this is how things stack up at the moment, once again using last week's SP+ numbers for the relative odds until those get updated tomorrow now updated with this week's SP+ ratings:

Team Odds # Outcomes
Virginia 58.2% 16
Virginia Tech 31.2% 11
Pittsburgh 10.2% 4
Tie* 0.42% 1

* - A tie that is reaches step #7 on the list of tiebreakers, in this case a 3-way tie between Pitt, UVA, and Virginia Tech

At this point, both Virginia Tech and UVA control their own destiny within the Coastal Division. Furthermore, the only way for UVA to clinch the division is by winning the Commonwealth Cup, a feat they have not accomplished since 2003. Here are the various ways everything could play out:

If Virginia beats Virginia Tech:
Virginia wins the Coastal. If Pitt loses to either VT or BC, UVA will win the division outright, and if Pitt also wins out UVA will own the head-to-head (H2H) tiebreaker over them.

If Virginia Tech beats Virginia and Pitt:
Virginia Tech wins the Coastal outright at 6-2. Everyone else would be 5-3 or worse.

If Pitt beats Virginia Tech and BC, and Virginia Tech beats Virginia:
Pitt wins the Coastal outright at 6-2. Everyone else will be 5-3 or worse.

If Pitt beats Virginia Tech but loses to BC, Virginia Tech beats Virginia, and Duke loses to at least one of Wake Forest and Miami:
Virginia Tech wins the Coastal. If Miami beats Duke, there is a 4-way tie between Miami, Pitt, Virginia, and Virginia Tech, and Miami and Virginia Tech would be 2-1 within the group, and Virginia Tech would then win based on H2H against Miami. If Miami loses to Duke, there's a 3-way tie at the top between Pitt, Virginia, and Virginia Tech, where all teams are 1-1 within the group and 4-2 within the division, so it goes to tiebreaker step #3, H2H winning percentage against the next highest team(s) and working down the list. Miami would be 4-4, Duke would be 3-5 with the loss to Wake Forest, UNC would be either 4-4 or 3-5, and GT would bring up the rear at either 1-7 or 2-6. All 3 tied teams beat UNC, so the only thing that matters is record against Miami, and Virginia Tech beat Miami whereas both Pitt and UVA lost, so Virginia Tech wins at that step.

If Pitt beats Virginia Tech but loses to BC, Virginia Tech beats Virginia, and Duke beats both Wake Forest and Miami:
This is the scenario that results in a tie that reaches Step 7, found at the link above, which cannot be resolved at this time. Take the previous scenario, with the same 3-way tie reaching tiebreaker step #3, except both Duke and Miami and possibly UNC are all tied at 4-4. All 3 teams already beat UNC and GT, so the only thing that matters is combined record against Duke and Miami, where all 3 teams would be 1-1, so step #3 cannot be used to resolve this tie. Step 4 is irrelevant, as there are no common non-divisional opponents, given that there are only 2 cross-divisional games, and Step 5 is also irrelevant, as a tie for conference record and division record should also mean a tie for non-divisional record. Step 6 is irrelevant for the same reason that Step 4 is irrelevant, so we reach Step 7 and stop.

Anyway, chart time:

UVA's odds are still a majority, but that's only because they're favored by SP+. If they beat us, they win the Coastal. If they lose to us, at best for them it comes down to some nebulous "analytics" rankings that we won't have access to unless and until such a scenario occurs. Overall, UVA's odds fell from 66% to 58%, and ours rose from 27% to 31%. Pitt was a big winner this week with their win over UNC, rising from 6% to 10%, with Miami losing any chance of winning the division despite having the week off.

As for our chances, they've been pretty clear all season, win out and we're going to Charlotte, but now the scenarios with a loss to Pitt are a bit clearer. No matter what happens, we will still have a shot at the Coastal with a win over UVA, though we will need a little help from Boston College, and possibly some more help from Miami.

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