Illinois Hokie's Recent Comments
But let's say for a moment that he can play low. If he has a good surge off the snap and stands up a 6'2" DL, the man's gonna be serving more pancakes than IHOP.
With that feam though I'd like to see him gain 20-30 lbs of good weight.
There aren't a lot of high school offenses that run more than that. There are some, but it's a rarity found mostly within the state of Texas.
I'll have to crunch the numbers on yds/attempt across each game, but I know there wasn't a dropoff in attempts/game. Unfortunately the spreadsheet I used to make this is on my computer at work, so it'll be tomorrow before I can post any additional hard data.
Actually, I'll just leave this here. Improvisation FTW!
Not sure how well that shows up, but from that I get:
YPA Games 1-5: 6.48
YPA Games 6-13: 5.69
Yes, we see a dropoff, and his two worst games in terms of YPA come after the adjustment. However, two of his four best games in terms of YPA also came after the adjustment. In general we see a smaller drop in YPA coupled by a significantly larger drop in INT/game, with no discernible reduction in ceiling.
The bad games against Wake, Miami and the Military Bowl that are dragging his YPA down might be attributable to his adjustment to reduce INTs, or to something else. Not enough to predict accurately here.
What are the rules governing the use of "II" vs "Jr."?
Mundelein??? Decatur???
That young man has got some jets.
6'1", 156 lbs? Paging Mike Gentry...
Not saying it's Hansen's fault. Him coming in shifted the line IIRC. Things were significantly different for the two games that are far outside the mean. As soon as the new look of the line started to gel, we returned to baseline.
Aaaaaaaaaaaand we have our outliers explained.
Uh...no. #conjecture, like he said.
Leg for you. INTs vs sacks was the one relationship I hadn't really considered. So after crunching the numbers:
You are onto something...but only for two games. There was a sharp spike in sacks against Duke and Wake Forest. Those two games might be a case of Brewer holding the ball too long, or it might have been a case of the O line allowing pressure to get to Brewer too quickly for him to make a throw. I don't recall off the top of my head, and have no desire to rewatch the Wake debacle to find out.
However, your contention that reduction in interceptions was correlated with a general increase in sacks is inaccurate beyond the two outliers. In general, the number of sacks Brewer took ranged from 1-3 per game across FBS opponents.
In a related matter, does anyone know about what point in the season Hanson started seeing significant playing time? Did it coincide with Duke/Wake?
I think it's reasonable to say that a pocket should start to collapse after 3-3.5 seconds. Brewer is already on the ground after 3 seconds. That's where the improvement needs to happen.
I'll say this: I don't feel comfortable positing a guess as to how Quarterback X would have done this season because only one Hokie QB I'm aware of has been supported by this bad of a run game: LT3. And there's a lesson to be learned there. 2011, with David Wilson beside/behind him in the backfield, LT looked like a first round pick. 2012-13, he looks like... Well, he looked like the third string quarterback for Arizona, drafted as a development project.
I want to see how many games Michael Brewer wins with an effective running game.
Question is, how much of a run game would be be against modern offenses without Shyrone Stith or Lee Suggs in the same backfield?
The data shows a drop in YPA, but not a titanic one. Games 1-5, he had two games above his season average YPA and three below it. Games 6-13 he had three above the season average and five below it. His level of play did not take a major hit after correcting his INTs.
My god, Brewer played his nuts off against Boston College. It's a damn shame he couldn't get the W in that one.
6.1 isn't gonna cut it. That means basically everything is a screen or to the flat. No vertical threat at all. The question is, how do we fix that? And the answer is the O line. It's hard enough for Brewer to see targets over the middle. Asking him to do that with a pocket that collapses after 3 seconds is impossible. So we either improve pass pro exponentially or roll the pocket to get Brewer a clearer view downfileld...which also takes away half the field from the passing game.
I'm down with the lingo.
Yeah, see above. I edited.
I'll look into that, but I don't know if throwaways are recorded as anything other than an incomplete pass. Good question. I'll look into that.
I tried to address this by showing what the effect would have been had he consistently thrown INTs at the 0.625/game rate all season. It would have only boosted his PR by like three points, which surprised me. So getting the INTs under control wouldn't have had a huge boost to PR because his his YPA was really holding him back.
I still maintain passer rating is the way to go because it lumps everything into one rating. It includes all the things you asked for in one number.
I did post TDs/game in the very last graph tho.
True dat. Third down conversion is a deeply undervalued stat. Then again, there was a game a couple years ago VT converted zero third downs and win handily, because we coveted primarily on second down.
We're in 100% agreement. The OSU game is just an instance of the stats not reflecting the game. We held a 7 minute TOP advantage against the Buckeyes and established our will on them. (TBH, provided that our offense is completing drives with points, I put more value on TOP than total offense. We don't always have to put up a bunch of yards, and our defense gives us a lot of short fields to work with.
Granted, but late leads weren't always safe just this season. We could be a 9 win team right now (assuming we win against ECU in overtime).
Mostly because the offense reached out and retook the game when it had to. Like I've said elsewhere in this thread, it's not always about raw numbers. The offense contributed its fair share to that win, so it gets cited as an example of what we want our offense to be.
With those numbers in limited playing time? I guarantee a FBS school picks him up.