The McHokie formula has it as 0% uva and 99.9% VT. .1% nobody wins due to total apocalypse
Ah, there's the disparity. Where are you getting your SP+ numbers from? Unless I'm reading this incorrectly, our rating is 3.3 and UVA's is 6.8:
WEEK 12 SP+ RANKINGS* The CFP race changed this week, but the numbers didn't all that much* SEC + B1G = 10 of the top 15* Heavier spec tms weight means bye-week jumps for Memphis & Washington* Ohio State has been so freaking good this year, you guyshttps://t.co/kaYvmwi6JZ— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 10, 2019
If I adjust to your numbers I get a 72.8% chance for UVA to win. It's possible my standard deviation is still slightly off (I used to reverse-engineer the value that Connelly used for his team previews each offseason, and maybe it should change throughout the year instead as the sample size increases) but that at least explains most of the discrepancy between your numbers and mine.
Edit: I figured it out, your ratings are 3 weeks old:
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27888218/sp+-rankings-w...
Also, the reason ESPN gives UVA such a larger chance to win is they use FPI instead of SP+ for their picks. I'm not sure there's a direct translation for raw score, but UVA is #37 in FPI and #42 in SP+, and we're #58 in FPI and #52 in SP+, so SP+ is probably expecting that game to be much closer than FPI does.
For those of y'all at the game any observations about NEZ. Seen some disappointing pictures on social media.